The above images are what the National Hurricane Center is calling Nicole. The center of circulation as of 11 AM was still over central cuba. As of 8 AM it was over cuba. At 8 am this was still a tropical depression and as of 11 AM while STILL OVER LAND they upgraded this to a tropical storm and named it nicole.
There is absolutely nothing to support this having being upgraded from a tropical depression to a tropical storm. I know I am not alone in this thinking because a well respected Pro Met also agrees that this should not have been upgraded because there is nothing to support it. A depression sitting and spinning over the mountains of CUBA is not going to become a tropical storm while over those mountains. This is a clear case of trumping the numbers in my opinion. Something that should not be done.
Moving on…what is actually happening presently along the east coast. Is the east coast currently seeing rain associated with NHC labeled Nicole?
The answer to that at the present time is no. The east coast is seeing rainfall from a baroclinic low pressure that has formed along the front which is along the east coast.
So this rain that is spreading northwards has nothing to do with NHC nicole. However it is this low pressure area that will be entraining moisture from NHC nicole that delivers some heavy rains along the east coast.
As for NHC Nicole she will essentially be absorbed into this baroclinic low pressure area . Its important to realize that what comes up along the east coast will not be NHC Nicole but rather this baroclinic area of low pressure with tropical moisture enhancement.
The main threat will continue to be heavy rains with this system. Of course with any convection (thunderstorms) gusty winds would also be a factor but the main emphasis will be the rain from this system.
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