Earl Coverage Continues & Still A Category 3 Hurricane

The above images are the most recent images of Hurricane Earl. As of 2 PM Earl continues as a Category 3 Hurricane. Basically as mentioned this storm has already reached its peak and from this point out it will maintain itself and as it crosses into colder waters it will then start to weaken .

So here is a look at the water temperatures and as you can see Earl is expected to go right over the colder waters and notice they are located off the Carolina Coast..

Earl is continuing to move off to the NW

but this is not anything that is new or anything that should be shocking. This was actually forecasted and expected to happen if you have been following the posts here at Real Wx Services.

In the meantime as Earl continues to head off to the NW we are noticing several things. First and foremost is that the environment that he is heading into is not an environment that would be friendly to re-strengthening.

As the above image clearly shows there is a wall of shear that is increasing to the North and Northwest of the system.

A general overall look at the shear..

Here is a closer view of this scenario showing not only the shear of 10-20 knots but also the dry air that is beginning to effect this system.

So what are the actual models showing today as far as this storm is concerned? Is this storm really going to be a threat for landfall along the east coast? Or is this all hype from people not understanding the surrounding environment and what they are looking at?

Only two  of the Tropical Models actually brings this as a landfall on the east coast as of the 12 Z guidance today.And one of them only grazes the extreme eastern part of Maine.

Of the two Global models that are considered TOP NOTCH the ECM does not show a East Coast landfall and neither does the 12 Z UKMET. Matter of fact the 12 Z UKMET has actually come east from its run last night..

Even the GGEM @ 12 Z does not have an East Coast Landfall..

Nor does the ECM @ 12 Z

Will have to check the in between hours since it only posts 24 hours on the free sites. Also the NAM does not have an east coast landfall and everyone knows how I feel about the NAM. One thing I have to credit the NAM with its a higher resolution model then the GFS..

So essentially the consensus remains clear that this is not going to be an east coast landfall. One model is further west which is the GFS model. But as you can see it is a relative outlier compared to every other piece of guidance that is available.

Again.. one has to remember that EARL is going to be travelling parallel to the coast but remain about 50-100 miles off shore. This means that the East coast is going to be on the western side of the system which is the weaker side of any tropical system. This will be travelling over colder waters so as it moves up towards the NE it will actually be in weakening process.

18 Z models are also still keeping this off and over the waters from the east coast.

Still see no compelling reasons to change the track that was issued several days ago..

As one can see we relatively expected it to stay pretty far to the south and continue on the NW projectory  that it is travelling.

Stay tuned for further updates as the system continues to develop!