Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Tropical Depression # 16 Update

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

As one can virtually tell where the center once was there is no longer any convection as all the convection is still well to the east. This is because where the center was dry air has started to move into that region so the center has relocated or reformed further to the east.

dry

While it has relocated further to the east..the greatest convection is still to the west of this and it could be this convection that is actually hindering intensification.

As one can see this is very close to land being Cuba and there is essentially no way to avoid going across cuba either.

We will have to see what type of an effect that this has on the depression but being that there is no real organization the effect will probably not be as great as if it was an organized system with a strong core.

convergediverge

vort

While there is some weak convergence and divergence occurring ..the greatest still lies further to the NE of the depression and the vorticity is still quite broad.

shear

As far as intensity after it passes CUBA..i am not really sure if there is going to be much of a chance for strengthening with this as far as being a tropical system is concerned.

As you can see there is much higher shear NE of where this depression is and where it is headed.

wg8sht

This image shows the increasing wall of shear to the northeast of the system. So the environment ahead of the system is not very conducive for strengthening and it may run out of water and time before being picked up by the front and turning extratropical..

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