Saturday, April 30, 2011

April 30th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 29th was 64 degrees @ KABE.

Today is going to be a mainly pleasant day across the area with mainly partly to mostly sunny skies and seasonable to perhaps slightly above seasonal temperatures.

Highs will generally be in the 50s-60s north and with the 60s to lower 70s pretty much elsewhere.

This is pretty much in response to some ridging moving in ahead of the next weather maker which we alluded to in our earlier post!

Friday, April 29, 2011

Cool and Potentially Wet Across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic the next 10 days.

If recent guidance is any indication the weather across the mid atlantic into the NE is going to take a turn downhill and we could potentially be looking at cooler weather with temperatures below normal and also wetter weather. Lets look at the teleconnections first that the guidance is showing:

nao.sprd2

NAO while it has been positive recently looks to be going into the tank. Last nights ECM run at 00z actually showed this quite well.

00zecmwfnao

pna.sprd2

PNA while being neutral negative looks to go neutral positive which would be indicative along with the NAO of a trough into the east.

ao.sprd2

Finally the AO which has been positive is expected as well to take a tumble. All these teleconnections suggest that the weather across the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast is going to take a turn to the colder and potentially wetter side of the weather spectrum.

Lets see what CPC has and if they agree with the above thinking:

610temp.new.small

814temp.new.small

You can see that within the next 6-10 days conditions are expected to be below normal and precipitation?

610prcp.new.small

814prcp.new.small

Guidance is indicating that it will be above normal. Matter of fact there could be some flooding across parts of the area if the guidance is correct.

So lets look at what is at least going to happen over the next 5 days.

12zeuro850mbTSLPNA096

12zeuro850mbTSLPNA120

On the latest 12 Z ECM you can see that there is a trough ejecting from the central part of the country and heading towards the Northeast. Before this happens a couple things will occur. First and foremost is that ejecting trough which comes out of the rockies will produce severe weather chances across parts of the south. We issued that map earlier and in case you missed it we will post it here again:

saturday

Now as that trough and cold front ejects towards the east from that region you can see the ECM develops an area of low pressure over the south around the GOM and then moves that towards the NE.

The GFS is not that far away in its depiction of this happening at 12 Z though the timing is a little off and this makes the low pressure slower and it also tends to make it more like a winter type storm system that goes off to the southeast  and OTS. Could it be correct? Always that possibility but as we have seen more times then not..the GFS can be too cold which causes these type of occurrences to be modeled.

12zgfs850mbTSLPNA072

12zgfs850mbTSLPNA096

12zgfs850mbTSLPNA120

So while there is some questions to the timing of the precipitation both models agree on the trough and cold front advancing to the east and guidance does agree with the weather taking a turn to the cooler side & if guidance is correct it will not be just cool but as well potentially wet with the chance for some heavy rain spreading from the SW towards the Northeast! ECM at 12 Z indicates anywhere from 1.5-3.00 inches of rain could fall with in the next 5-6 days.

Stay tuned for more information !

Severe Weather Potential April 30th

We may end up having to fine tune this tomorrow morning. However at this point and time this is based off the SREF/NAM/00z ECM a blend of the three models.

saturday

CAPE values range from 500-2500 across the region

Lift Index is –2 to –8 across the region

SWEAT index is 350-500 across the region

Energy Helicity Index is 1.0-2.0 across the region

0-6 KM shear is around 50 knots

With SW flow in place and guidance showing a upper level trough moving out of the rockies and ejecting eastwards ..You can see this in last nights ECM

00zeuro850mbTSLPNA024

00zeuro850mbTSLPNA048

You can also see the same thing on the 12 Z guidance from today!

12zgfs850mbTSLPNA024

12zgfs850mbTSLPNA042

This trough advancing eastward, and an attending cold front in combination with a strong lower level Jet should cause storms to initiate and fire across the region.

nam_rapid-ugrdprs-250-conus-36-A-wind_high

gfs_rapid-ugrdprs-250-conus-36-A-000

With sufficient shear in place , strengthening lower level jet, decent CAPE, LI and EHI..and a southwest flow out ahead of the cold front and trough..colder upper levels of the atmosphere would suggest that large hail would be the primary threat.

However , with the strengthening lower level jet and helicity in place there could also be a risk for tornado’s as well.

The question that has to be brought up is will this become another outbreak across the Southeast and tennessee valley area. At this point and time we feel that on Sunday that region will be more or less dealing with scattered storms and really does not have anything to worry about as far as anything as bad or even close to what they just went thru!

Stay tuned for further updates including a revised map likely later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

April 29th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE on the 28th was 76 degrees. Today for the most part will be a partly sunny day across the region. There may be some scattered showers across parts of the region as the ULL that was responsible for all the severe weather moves across the region.

The high temperatures today with the cold front going thru the region will also be on the cooler side.Highs will generally be in the 50s and the 60s!

Our thoughts and prayers go out to the families of those that have lost loved ones in the Epic Severe Outbreak that we have experienced the past couple days.

We hope they may have a fast and speedy recovery and that they will always remember the good times with the loved ones they may have lost!

Severe Weather Outlook For Thursday the 28th !

We would first like to start this off by offering our thoughts and prayers to the families down south that have lost loved ones over the past couple days. Today was an EPIC outbreak and currently we stand at 138 tornado reports on the day. The outbreak of 1974 had a total of 148 . Being that SPC takes the day until 12 Z or 8 AM ..there is only 11 more reports needed to surpass the Super Outbreak of 1974. Alabama was hit extremely hard and we can only hope for a speedy recovery!

today

With all that to the side we need to turn attention to today the 28th. While there is still some severe weather going across Western Ohio that should be winding down shortly. So our outlook for today does not include that area.

As of 00z the cold front was still quite well to the west. This map is a few hours old and should be updated shortly but for all intents and purposes the cold front has been slow to move and has not really made much progress East since 18 Z yesterday or 2 PM.

90fwbg

Updated image as of 03 Z shows little progress has been made..

90fwbg (1)

Current radar shows the MCS moving off towards the Northeast and you can see where the severe weather is still occurring ..

RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_WINTER_ANI

In addition to the severe weather that will occur today ..very heavy rain will also result in flooding problems across the viewing area from PA into parts of NY state as well as Eastern Ohio.

Thursday

We feel the area in Red will be at the greatest risk for severe weather today. This area will also have the greatest wind and tornado threat. While the tornado threat still exists currently to the west of this area..that area will be pushing east with time. This region is highlighted due to the severe parameters with guidance as of 00z. We have completely disregarded the GFS for this outlook as it was not in harmony with the NAM/ or the SREF.

Storms will once again include the potential for tornados as well as winds in excess of 65 MPH and the possibility of large hail as well. If you are in any of these areas please stay tuned to your local weather source for the latest information!

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Kevin Martin –Warn Your Weather Friends This Man is a FRAUD!

229713_205733289460193_100000705702708_591567_2521097_n

A quote from TRAM "I dont think today is going to be high risk at all."

Tornado Risk Analysis Model Yeah I unliked the page so I don't have to deal with the trolls. If I can't see them it doesn't bother me. I just 'liked' it once more to say good job to him and then unliked it."

He is referring to people that post on Dr Greg Forbes Facebook page. That means he is referring to basically this whole viewing area.

Folks when you read the above..do you really want this guy giving you advice on life and death situations like Severe Weather?

But wait guys it gets better :

Tornado Risk Analysis Model Sam, of course I did. Learn how to function in society and quit using your disorder for cries and support. Believe me ... I can tell you are autistic and a freak of nature at that. Autism didn't exist way back then so it developed from bad parenting ... sucks to be you Sam.

Now he is attacking parents and children with Autism! Please if you have not already and you are on Facebook block this individual as he clearly has mental issues !

He went so far as to say that I was jealous of him! Jealous of a person with no Meteorological Degree? Jealous of a person that has mental issues? Jealous of a person that can not even analyze a synoptic setup and notice that this was going to be an EPIC event a week out already?

Not sure about you but I think we here at Real Wx Services stand tall and proud above Kevin martin! And we do not hide behind anything by calling or referring to any of us as Pros because we are NOT! But with 20 years experience behind us.. we surely are in with the best and above the “fraudulent character above”!

April 27th Severe Weather Outlook

90fwbg
Cold front as of 3 Z was approaching western Ohio and you can also see now that places like NW ARK ..North Central Tx and Oklahoma are now in the cool sector . So we feel that the severe weather at these locations is pretty much a done deal do to being on the other side of the front now.
RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_WINTER_ANI
Now as we have been talking about for days we talked about another piece of energy diving into the trough from the rockies and you can see this very clearly by the spin on the radar above which is just to the North of Oklahoma.
It is this piece of energy that is going to cause the trough in the central USA to take on a negative tilt and this piece of energy will begin to lift off towards the Great Lakes. As it does so it is going to create another day or two of severe weather out ahead of that advancing cold front.
wednesday
Red Zone is the Hot Spots zone and yellow zone is also where you can expect to see severe weather.
The whole outlined area runs the risk of damaging winds in excess of 65 mph..Large hail and the potential for tornados. Now when looking at the map please keep climatology in mind when you think about tornados. Climatology places the greatest chance for these to the south. However..those further north could also see tornado’s as well but the main threats should be straight line winds and or hail.
No matter how you slice it or dice it folks..its going to be a pretty nasty day…

Monday, April 25, 2011

Severe Weather Tuesday the 26th

tuesday

We have been talking about this outbreak for days & it appears as if today is the start..and tuesday and wednesday will be the days that it is at its peak .

We have been talking about a trough over the central part of the US and a series of impulses or pieces of energy coming off a very powerful Jet feeding into this trough and energizing the severe weather chances. These impulses will produce cyclogenesis across the central part of the country.

In addition to the severe weather we will also be looking at very heavy rainfall. The next couple days look to be a Major Outbreak.

Severe threats look to be large hail, damaging winds and even tornados. Especially in places that are prone to them but with parameters in place even places that are not prone could be looking at the potential for a tornado.

Stay tuned to your trusted weather source and keep your eye to the sky!

We will issue a map for wednesday later today or tomorrow..

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Severe Weather Potential For Tues 24th thru 26th

As we have been talking about ..the chances for severe weather are going to be with us pretty much thru the beginning and middle portion of this week.

Current thinking is that the low pressure will go from Southern OK to NW Indiana and then NNE from there. The trough should take on a neutral to negative tilt and with the height falls ahead of the system this should become a severe weather maker across a large portion of the region.

By thursday this will produce a cold front pushing across the east and should bring an end to the severe weather chances with it culminating on the east coast on Thursday.

However, between now and then severe weather will be possible in and across the region as highlighted on the map below but if you are in the east your greatest chances are going to be Wednesday-thursday!

Severe weather aspects to expect will be winds in excess of 65 mph , along with hail that can be as large as 2 inches and the potential for tornados as well.

tuesdaythursday

We have already issued a map for Sunday and monday. We will issue a map for each day tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday as we get closer to each daily event!

Stay tuned and stay safe!

Severe Weather Potential For Sunday the 24th

As we had noted earlier with the last update we are going to be dealing with a very active weather pattern across the region over the next few days at the very least.

Sunday

A cold front will extend from New England across Southern Pa and then work its way south southwest from there back into Tx. It will be this frontal feature that will act as a focus for severe weather to occur along.

Greatest severe parameters lie back across the SW across ARK, eastern OK and Northern Tx..

Across the mid atlantic area it will be Mid Level impulses or disturbances that will be moving along the frontal boundary that will be the trigger, along with day time heating with temperatures into the 70s and dew points in the 60s. Efficient shear between 35-50 knots should be capable of producing storms across the region that are capable of wind and or hail damage.

April 25th Severe Weather Potential

Severe weather chances continue across a large part of the area due to a persistent front that stretches from the mid atlantic region back towards the west southwest  into the central plains states.

Meanwhile guidance is suggesting that a low pressure is going to develop over the southwest and this will then move off towards the NE into the Great Lakes region by tuesday afternoon.

It appears at this point that there is going to be a series of disturbances that are going to be coming into the pacific NW and dropping down into the Southwest which is going to continue to keep the chances of severe weather potential quite high across the central part of the states thru a good portion of the beginning of the week.

It appears that some time around thursday a cold front will finally move across the area and put an end to the severe weather. However..before that point and time we could have quite the outbreak of severe weather.

This brings us to Monday which is the first of these days..

Monday

A map will be issued for the next day which would be tuesday later this evening. Keep in mind that if guidance is correct we could be looking at a very EPIC severe outbreak from about monday thru wednesday culminating in the east on thursday..

Friday, April 22, 2011

April 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE was 59 degrees on the 21st. This was actually below normal for the time of the year .

Today is going to start off with clear skies but then clouds are going to increase. Once the clouds increase to the area then the rainfall will not be far behind . Starting in the west and spreading towards the east by evening time. This rain will then continue for the rest of the evening. The rain will spread northwards in the overnight hrs and it is possible that the higher elevations may see some snowfall as well.

Temperatures look to be from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. So it will be another chilly day after a cold start with temps in the 30s and 20s north.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Rain On The Way To The Mid Atlantic and Northeast!

A series of frontal systems is going to be making its way across the region. The first one will be friday in the form of a warm front which will move towards the region. This front however looks to stall just south before beginning to advance again towards the north on sunday. This is going to be a slow moving front and this front is going to be bringing rain to the area and the possibility of thunderstorms as well. At this point and time we are not expecting any severe weather, however garden variety thunderstorms are possible along with some heavy rain across the region.

The air mass that is going to be coming into the region is going to be quite warm with temperatures probably getting into the 70s and perhaps lower 80s once this warm front is able to make its way to the north of us. However by thursday a cold front will be coming thru and it is this cold front at that time that could cause severe weather . However, thats in the distance yet and we have plenty of time to monitor that scenario.

With that in mind here is the rainfall that we are anticipating across the region:

CURRENTFORECASTIMAGE1-9

Final Map for Severe Potential April 22nd

Southeastprecipfinal

Not much has changed with the severe potential other then an adjustment to the north with the greatest Severe Parameters now shifting that direction.

The red zone is the area that has the greatest potential for severe weather and also has the greatest Energy Helicity Index to indicate the potential for tornados.

As always we will be available to help those that fear severe storms and if you do not already know you can get a hold of me via Yahoo messenger at theweathergod2010@yahoo.com

Stay tuned for further information.

April 21st Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 20th @ ABE was 65 degrees. Once again when the day was expected to be in the 70s the region fell shy because the warm front had a hard time moving towards the north. So we fell short of the high temperatures that the NWS was anticipating.

Today is going to be a partly sunny day across the region but thanks to the cold front that moved thru temperatures may feel a bit on the chilly side and may in fact end up being below normal.  To the north along the US/Canada border in the NE there may even be some snow showers.

Temperatures today will be in the 30s in maine ..rising to  the 40s towards the coast of Maine and the 40s pretty much thru the interior parts of the Northeast..with 50s pretty much elsewhere. You will not find any 60s till you get south of the PA/MD border..All and all a pretty nice day but a touch on the chilly side..

R.W.S Catches Kevin Martins Deceptions Once Again!

Earlier in the day we happened to notice a photo that was posted on Facebook with the credit for the photo given to one Ryan Hoke. If you are not familiar with Ryan Hoke he is a stormchaser. You can read more about him by clicking here.

The photo that was posted is the following:

42011a

Now, folks this is a spectacular photo that Ryan Hoke captured!

The problem lies in the fact that after this photo was posted via Twitter and then someone on Facebook posted it (though crediting Ryan) ..Self Proclaimed Kevin Martin had a news story about this photo..

This was said in that news story along with the photo..

"Ryan Hoke of MSU sends this picture of what looks like something out of a sci-fi movie"

The above leads the reader to think that Ryan Hoke sent this photo into theweatherspace.com or AKA Kevin Martin.

So, we decided to contact Ryan Hoke and we sent him the link where we originally found the photo on facebook and we also sent him the link to the story on theweatherspace. And we asked him if he sent this photo to Kevin Martin.

And as you can see we got this response…

Ryan Hoke
show details 11:46 PM (41 minutes ago)

Thanks!
He did not ask my permission and I did not send it to him. I posted it freely on Twitter for people to see and repost, but I would've liked a heads-up before he posted on his blog.

Since that time ..Kevin Martin has changed the wordings around in that article..

Ryan Hoke of MSU sends this picture on Twitter of what looks like something out of a sci-fi movie. We didn't know what it was so we asked our meteorologist.

Big difference between the first print of the article where he implied that it was sent to him and now saying it was sent via Twitter.

Once again Kevin Martins been caught in fraudulent actions and we ask that you keep your eye open if you are a stormchaser or just a weather hobbyist because this type of thing could happen to you!

Severe Weather Potential For The South-Yet Again!

Another shortwave trough is expected to move across the midwest and towards the Great Lakes region.At the same time guidance is suggesting an area of low pressure will move from the SW towards the great lakes by friday night. This will once again cause a cold front to move across the region that is being discussed here.

Taking a look at the severe weather parameters that will be in place..

CAPE from 500 in Eastern TN to as high as 3500-4000 across eastern Oklahoma.

Lift index goes from 0 to –2 from Eastern TN to as negative as –8 in Eastern Oklahoma back into Tx..

SWEAT index as high as 300 in eastern TN to as high as 600 across Eastern Oklahoma and back into Tx..

Energy Helicity Index is greatest from Ark to Missouri to Eastern Ok where it appears to be 1.5-2.5 which would be supportive of potential tornados.

Dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s-70s across the region as well.

All the above points out to another round of severe weather with the potential of tornados in some areas once again. At this point and time though we have not indicated on a red zone yet ..it would appear as though parts of OK (EAST) and Missouri (Central to south) and ARK (North and Central) would be part of that red zone.

We will issue a more specific detail map tomorrow including the red zone . For now..suffice to say …make preparations for another potentially dangerous day across the area.

Southeastprecip22

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Severe Weather On the 20th Across The Mid Atlantic & Northeast

Severe Zone[2]

We have no reason to change our thinking that was issued a couple days ago. While guidance has shifted back and forth with on again severe chances to off again severe chances..as was the case during the winter the guidance usually ends up coming back to what it was originally anticipating and showing.

Timing of the front looks to be between 18 Z and 00z on wednesday. This should allow the benefit of daytime heating to take place sending temperatures into the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s.

The area from about Eastern PA into the Delmarva region looks to be the best targeted area with CAPE values of 1000-1500. SWEAT index looks to be around 350.

With the SWEAT index remaining below 400 we are not anticipating any tornados but the threat of winds in excess of 60 MPH will be possible with any of the stronger storms.

We are currently monitoring the situation taking shape today across the midwest into the south. Current thinking is storms should begin to fire up after 4 PM…

Monday, April 18, 2011

Updated Severe Potential for Tuesday the 19th

Southeastprecipfinal

We do not agree with the severe prediction center and them bringing a slight chance of severe into western PA.. The reason we do not agree on that extension is because none of the reliable guidance from the NAM/GFS at 12 Z and 00z ECM bring any severe parameters into western Pa.

We have highlighted the area where the greatest parameters are in place and where the best chance of severe weather actually will be. The red zone is the area where the highest chance of tornados also is based on these parameters.

Stay tuned for more information!

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Originality at its Best or Plagiarism at its best?

Folks we are going to continue to keep you the public aware of what is happening. Lets take a look at this latest image:

daythree

Interesting map is it not? Now take away the bottom left hand corner from that map and look at this image below:

day3otlk_0730

day3prob_0730

Interesting look is it not? Wait look carefully at that top image and now replace the top image in the lower left hand corner with the SPC logo. Furthermore…if the logo was not on either maps you would find out that the top map is the same exact map that SPC uses with the islands south of FL “painted” out.

I encourage each and every one of you to report this blatant plagiarist to the SPC…

SEVERE POTENTIAL MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTH

Southeastprecip

Just looking at severe parameters off the latest guidance this is looking like it could be another big outbreak across the region and into some of the same areas that just got hit hard… Anyone in these regions that takes photos of the severe weather ..feel free to send them to me and I will post them on the blog for you..

So lets get to it…

CAPE 500-1000 is actually the lowest and its around the perimeter of the zone you are looking at above. The majority of the region is in 1500-3000 with some isolated pockets up to 3500.

LIFT iNDEX –2 to –10

SWEAT INDEX as high as 500 in areas such as ILLINOIS then in a line that goes southwest and thru central ARK and continuing SW thru the state of TX..

EHI from about Central ILLINOIS to Hopkinsville, KY south thru Central TN into NW Alabama westward across Northern Mississippi , all of ARK into Eastern Half of Ok northwards covering the  central to southern half of Missouri is at 2.0 or above.

The above area mentioned for the EHI looks like it could be the area that ends up being the best zone for the severe weather. Never the less we are talking about a widespread area if the guidance is correct in its depiction of severe weather.

Now, not everyone in this area highlighted will get severe weather but this is the zone that as of now which is still 48 hrs or so away has the greatest potential based on the severe parameters.

This looks like it could be another significant Tornado outbreak.

The culprit responsible for this will be a shortwave trough and a deepening area of low pressure and a attending cold front making its way eastwards.

As mentioned above this looks like it has some good potential so if you are anywhere with in this area you are going to want to pay attention to the guidance thru the next 36-48 hrs.

More Rain & Severe Potential On The Way!

Well across the region today we are experiencing a quiet weather day. Some scattered showers coming off the great lakes but the region that was battered yesterday with 107 tornado reports is all quiet with a chance for cleanup and a chance to begin the rebuild process. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the areas that were hit hard yesterday.

Meanwhile, the world of weather does not stop despite the disaster that it may cause. We turn our attention to the next time frame which is the 19-20th and we actually started talking about this system already way back on the 10th of the month as being part of the next 10 days of wet weather. We mentioned on the 14th that it was also the next shot at severe weather.

So lets look at the system in reference. Unfortunately, the source for the European Computer Images was not available and neither was the regular source of images so we had to turn to some place new for the images being used.

gfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip

gfs_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip

gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip

The above is the GFS and once again you see a low pressure cutting west into the great lakes and this is going to cause a cold front to move across the region.

nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip

nam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip

nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip

This above is the NAM..you can also see that the NAM is in relative general agreement with the GFS as far as taking the system to the lakes.

So lets look at the breakdown of severe weather parameters from each of the models above.

Starting first with the GFS at 78 hrs out or 18 Z

CAPE –Across W PA 1000-2000

South of MD border 500-3000

84 hrs it is 500-1000 from the southern tier of PA from west pa to east side and then greater as you head south.

Lift index for that time period –4 to – 8 across the aforementioned areas.

SWEAT index which is the severe weather threat index..

400-450 in western PA stretching north and then south beyond PA and only 250 in the east at 78 hrs ..however by 84 hrs the SWEAT index pushes east into eastern regions.

Now when you look at the NAM for the severe parameters it is a little different then the GFS.

For CAPE across western PA the NAM only has 500-1000 at 78 hrs while the greatest CAPE if from South Central Pa into SE PA into SNJ and points south and this goes as high as 3000. By 81 hrs we now have CAPE of 1000-1500 across SW PA  and then as high as 3000 into SE PA . By 84 hrs we go from 500-1000 from SW PA to 1500-3000 from east central PA into SE PA.Lift index goes –2 to –6. SWEAT index is 350-400 across the region at 78 hrs and EGI or Energy Helicity available is 1.0-1.5 . By 84 hrs there is a pocket in E Central PA that is higher then 1.5.

So, all and all , severe weather parameters in place are supportive at another shot at severe weather with the possibility of tornados not being able to be ruled out. Timing looks to be wednesday afternoon and night. Between now and then the parameters and timing may shift around but the general zone to be in for severe weather is below:

Severe Zone

Another possibility is we could be looking at another heavy rain event which will add to any flooding concerns .

Stay tuned for more information