Though we are talking about a week away from today…guidance is suggesting that the area could be in for the chance once again at severe weather. It continues to be very early in the season but never the less certain signs are showing up.
First guidance is showing another area of low pressure that will be moving from the Southwest towards the NE. Associated with this area of low pressure will be an associated upper level trough and a strong cold front..
The above is the European Computer model at 144 hrs out and 168 hrs out. Notice how in front of the area of low pressure it moves ridging into the region? This would bring southerly flow out ahead of the cold front once again and temperatures would end up going above normal. To early to say if they would be record temps. However notice the much cooler air at the 850 level by 168 hrs?
The GFS is in somewhat similar agreement with the European guidance…
GFS also brings the ridging into the region and also has the low pressure area but its weaker on the air behind the front. 18 Z GFS basically falls under the same category as the 12 Z..
So the models are in agreement that there will be a system coming thru the region with an approaching cold front but the differences in strength of the cooler air behind that front are what is different.
Essentially the pattern continues of wet and cool followed by a day or two of milder air before another system and cold front move thru.
Stay tuned for more information on this time period…
No comments:
Post a Comment