Friday, April 30, 2010

May 1st 2010 Western Mid-Atlantic Convective Outlook Forecast


Trigger: Advancing Cold Front; FROPA.

Most action for tomorrow looks to be based on the western areas of the Mid-Atlantic, with perhaps some action more to the east. R.W.S has decided to go with a Slight risk, which targets the western areas of the Mid-Atlantic with a Moderate Chance of the Slight Risk actually being fulfilled, whereas the area more to the east of there, was placed under a Isolated Chance of the Slight Risk actually occurring.

  • Dew Points: 55F to 65F
  • Temperatures: 70F to 90F
  • Mean Craven Brooks Parameter: >= 1000 m3/s3 and <>
  • Mean Supercell Composite: >= 1 and <>
  • Lifted Index: -1F to -2F
  • CAPE: >= 500J/kg and <= 1000J/kg
  • 0-6km Bulk Shear: >= 30 kts and <= 40 kts
  • Effective Bulk Shear: >= 30 kts and <= 40 kts
  • Mean 0-1km Helicity: >= 50 m2/s2 and <= 100 m2/s2

April 30th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature @ KABE April 29th 68 degrees which was once again above normal although the over night low of 38 brought the day to a below normal day..

There is only one word to sum up today’s weather across the region and that word would be beautiful. Its going to be sunny and warming up nicely across the region and it may seem like we just went from what felt like winter to the opposite extreme of feeling like summer.

Temperatures will still be cool somewhat in Maine with the highs in the 50s to 60s.From NY state to NNE temperatures will be in the 60s to lower 70s. In southern new england temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s. South of there in PA and NJ and MD upper 70s to lower 80s!

Quite the difference compared to yesterday and especially the day before and this is just the beginning of a fantastic three days of summer like weather in the midst of spring!

Thursday, April 29, 2010

May 2nd Severe Weather Potential

Severe Weather will be possible on Sunday May 2nd with the approaching cold front that will be moving towards the region.

CAPE 1000-1500

Bulk Shear 35-45 knots

0-1 KM helicity 200 m2/s2

LI is –2 to minus 4 and small pocket to –6

Lapse rates are relatively weak …PWAT is relatively high with 1.0-2.0

Essentially any storms could contain very heavy rainfall…

severe

Trigger advancing cold front and associated low pressure moving thru Southeastern Canada..

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

April 29th Daily Weather Discussion

Today is actually going to be the first day in the weather actually improving over a large part of the region. The chance of showers will however continue over Northern New England..

For the rest of the area the skies will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures starting on a moderating trend and before all is said and done it will feel like we have gone from winter to spring to summer all in less then a weeks time. So its basically been a roller coaster ride and I am not sure that this pattern is going to stop just yet. However for now we are moderating starting with today.

Temperatures will be in the 60s to lower 70s in SNE thru all of PA into NJ and MD. To the north of there upper 50s to lower 60s and then further north into NNE where clouds and rain chances continue temperatures will be in the 40s..

All and all the weather will be improving from here on out and pretty much all areas should begin to experience warmth by the weekend with daytime convective thunderstorms possible but more on that as we get closer to that time!

April 28 th Daily Weather Discussion

April 27th High temperature @ KABE was 54 degrees which was once again below normal.

For PA/NJ/MD the weather will essentially be dry today with partly sunny skies. An outside chance of a shower.

Further north however a different story..

From NY state into NNE there is going to be once again rain showers and even higher elevation snows. Perhaps a sign that winter in the higher elevations still has some life to it,

Temperatures in those areas will be in the 30s and 40s. the rest of the region is looking at temperatures in the 50s to perhaps lower 60s in southern PA and south regions.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Verification of Rainfall for April 25-28th

Original forecast that was issued:

rain

Verification using Multi Sensor Data

past48

As you can see the call for 1-2 inches across the region had occurred and was the correct avenue to take.

So what is next on the horizon?

Warm weather and sunny skies will be returning to the forecast area.

Monday, April 26, 2010

April 27th Daily Weather Discussion

April 26th high temperature at KABE was 53 which was well below normal.

Today  from PA south the weather will start to clear out after some possible early morning lingering showers, North of PA showers can linger and even some higher elevation snow showers are possible. 

Starting today the weather will start to improve more and more each day and by the weekend you will not remember this cool snap that has occurred.

Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s from N PA  North and south of there temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s in southern PA and south

April 26th Daily Weather Discussion

April 25th High temperature @ KABE was 51 degrees which was thirteen degrees below normal.

Today is going to consistent of the same type of weather that we had yesterday! Cloudy skies and rainy weather. Any severe weather today should be confined to Delaware and points south along the east coast.

Temperatures today will be in the 50s for the most part until you get south of PA, where temperatures will generally be in the 60s!

Once again, if you are in a location that is expecting severe weather , please remember to take shelter and be safe.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

April 25th Weather Discussion

The high temperature april 24th @ KABE was 68 degrees.

There is only one word to describe todays weather! That word would be wet! The day is going to be filled with rain. There also will be the chance of severe weather. Consisting of hail damage, wind damage in excess of 60 MPH and isolated tornadoes.

The best chances of severe weather will be from SW OHIO to SW PA to Western MD, Southern MD and NW Western VA. For the rest of us we are just looking at basically some heavy rain on the order of 1-3 inches

Temperatures will be in the 50s in most areas, 60s in southern PA and south of PA in the 70s and then much further south into the 80s!

If you are in the areas that are anticipating severe weather keep an eye to the sky and be safe above all things!

Saturday, April 24, 2010

April 24th Daily Discussion

April 23rd high temperature at KABE was 66 degrees.

Pretty much on schedule the weather is about to take a step downwards and stay downwards for at least 48 hrs. Low pressure over the central and southern plains will move towards the ohio valley and will form a triple point low. These low pressures and frontal system are going to essentially join forces to spread rain across the area. The rainfall will start effecting the western regions , while the Eastern regions start to cloud up . However, by evening to late evening rainfall will be virtually across the entire region from SNE/NY State south.

Temperatures today will be in the 50s to 60s thru out the region.

This inclement weather looks to last until around Tuesday at this point and time.

Severe weather is possible in the western portion of PA…

Friday, April 23, 2010

April 23 Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature April 22nd @ KABE was 71 degrees which is above normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a partly to mostly sunny day across vast majority of the region. One exception to that forecast would be the state of Maine where they will be experiencing showers. Other wise it is possible that showers start to move into western PA and Western MD  but that would not be until later in the evening. Clouds will be on the increase though later in the evening across the eastern regions.

Daytime high temperatures will be in the 50s form NNY and points North and the 60s from SNE and points south!

Take the time to enjoy the weather today because after today it begins to go downhill and become quite wet!

Rains on The Way-April 25-28th

A long duration rain event is on the way beginning late on Saturday. A warm front is going to move thru the region at the same time a low pressure from the ohio valley will be moving to the east.A weak area of low pressure should develop along the warm front off the Atlantic coast and this will be responsible for some rain beginning on Saturday.

By sunday late in the day or early evening another low pressure should form along the triple point of the front and this will continue the chance of rain across the region. The low pressure over Ohio will eventually move eastwards as well and bring some additional showers to the region on wednesday.

At this point we do not feel that there will be any real flooding concerns because the rainfall will be falling over a good duration of time. Approximately 48 hrs of rainfall is possible before all is said and done.

Current thinking is 1-2 inches of rain with some isolated 3 inch amounts. Its still not clear whether there will be any thunderstorms (severe) but if they were to occur the areas that receive them would receive enhanced rainfall totals. Will have a clearer picture on that by friday evening/early saturday.

rain

Thursday, April 22, 2010

April 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

April 21st High temperature @ KABE was 67 degrees. There was a thunderstorm between 2:20 PM and 2:30 PM that contained a few rumbles and some lightning but the main effect was heavy rain. However, once that storm came thru..it all cleared up

Today is going to be similar to yesterday ..there once again is a chance of showers and thunderstorms (nothing severe) with the best chance of these showers and thunderstorms occurring over the Northeast. From NY and points north. However…just like yesterday it will not be a completely rainy or washout day but rather partly to mostly cloudy though the sun may also make its presence known at times as well.

Southwards into PA there is also a chance of those same showers and thundershowers but they should be more scattered and not as numerous as further north.

Temperatures in the 50s in Maine, NNY and Northern VT, NH ..the rest of the area will see temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s possible south of PA , in MD…

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

April 21st Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperatures April 20th @ KABE was 68 degrees. This was another day that fell into the range of above normal and as promised was a very pleasant day!

Unfortunately today is going to be the start of the weather taking a turn of going downhill. Though here at R.W.S we do not feel that the day is going to be all that unpleasant if you are North of the PA/MD border.

Today is going to be a partly to mostly cloudy day , though the sun could shine from time to time, especially north of the PA/MD border but there is a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms from the PA/MD border south.

Even with that area being the better zone for rainfall and potential general thunderstorms…there will still exist the chance of showers and storms North of the PA/MD border but we do not think that it will be a completely rainy day at this point and time and its possible that you may go the whole day rain free from PA/MD north.

Temperatures today will be in the 60s to low 70s from the mid atlantic into the Northeast with the exception of the state of Maine where it will be in the 50s.

So a pleasant day temperature wise and could be a half decent pleasant day from PA/MD north but if you are out and about especially south..you may want to take that umbrella with you!

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Weekly Newsletter Starting 1st Week of June!

As the CEO of Real Wx Services, I have decided to start a weekly newsletter. However, with not that much occurring between now and June 1st due to being in the transition period between winter and summer..The newsletter will start in the first week of June and will be issued every monday there after. These news letters will cover the weather for the week ahead..

The easiest way to provide this newsletter would be thru the facebook group that I created for Real Weather Services!

FACEBOOK GROUP FOR NEWSLETTER CLICK HERE

This newsletter will then continue every week thru out winter 2010-2011.

April 20th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature April 19th @ KABE was 64 degrees. This was two degrees above normal.

Today is going to be one of virtually the only nice days of weather this week with Partly to Mostly sunny skies and pleasant conditions once again.

Temperature wise its going to be in the 50s in Maine and then the low to mid to upper 60s elsewhere across the region.

Today will virtually, after the cool to cold start depending where you are be one of the best days out of the week to be outside with any out door activities. After today..the chances of showers and thunderstorms will be increasing across the area.

Monday, April 19, 2010

April 19th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperatures April 18th was in the below normal range at 55 degrees. Although the day ended up on the dry side and even some sunshine towards the end

Today there could be some scattered showers in parts of the Northeast but otherwise today is going to be generally a partly sunny day and pleasant temperature wise after getting off to a cool to cold start.

High temperatures will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s in Maine and then the 50s to lower 60s elsewhere! Perhaps some mid 60s in the southern half of PA and Southern NJ.

After tonight temperatures are going to slowly start to moderate and we should be looking at warmer temperatures this time next weekend.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

April 18th Daily Weather Discussion

April 17th high temperature @ KABE was 53 degrees.

Today is once again going to be a mainly partly cloudy to mostly cloudy and cool raw day. Winds will not be as strong however. Showers and even snowshowers will be possible from parts of Central PA into the Northeast mainly over the higher elevations. However, most areas should be just cloudy .

Temperatures once again are going to be on the cool side with 40s from Northern PA into the NE and 50s in SNE and southwards along the coast into SE PA and south central PA and 60 degrees is possible along the coast in SNJ and maybe even KPHL..

Saturday, April 17, 2010

April 17th Daily Discussion

April 16th high temperature 2 KABE was 69 degrees.

Today is going to be a much cooler day and the chances of rain and snow is going to continue mainly to the North and west of PA . though some showers are still possible in the state of PA.. The snow looks like it will be confined to the higher elevations of Northern NY, NH and Maine and Vermont.

Temperatures are going to be in the 40s from Northern PA into Maine and the 50s elsewheres across the region.

The next three days should be the coolest and then a slow moderation trend..

Friday, April 16, 2010

Is the El Nino Dying or Becoming East Based?

Probably one of the most important questions at this time is focused on the El Nino. Is the El Nino really dying and fading away or is the El Nino simply relocating or shifting its forcing from west based to east based?

The answer to this question is important as it has bearings on the Hurricane season coming up from June to the End of November and perhaps as important but more away in the distance would be Winter of 2010-2011.

Last summer ended up being a weak el Nino and this kept hurricane season rather low compared to normal. By winter time a moderate to strong El Nino was in place 1.8 which provided record season snows across the mid atlantic.

So what we at Real Wx Services are trying to figure out will effect the hurricane season as well as winter and that is a piece of the puzzle that we are trying to solve.

At this point and time the SOI is positive…Normally a positive SOI does not bode well for El Ninos and is more in line with a La Nina instead. However, last winter towards its beginning, we also had a positive SOI but we never had a La Nina. So one thing winter of 2009-2010 taught us is that the SOI can be positive with an El Nino still in place and what this does is it really becomes decoupled from the El Nino and not very reliable to determine Enso Status.

A El Nino for the summer would once again more then likely cut back on the hurricane activity because it would cause an increase in shear, & dry air.

Basically the most we can do right now is observe the weekly ENSO readings as well as the daily readings. So with that in mind here was the daily readings as of yesterday.

 

As of yesterday     the Eastern  regions are quite warm with Nino 2 at 2.1 and Nino 1.2 around 1.4. As the western side of the El Nino region is actually on the decline. So this is something that we at Real Wx Services is going to continue to keep an eye on!

April 16th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature April 15th was 73 degrees at the Allentown International Airport.

Today is going to be a mainly cloudy sky across the region with an increasing chance of rain. Rain will be effecting the areas to the north and the west in the region and then as the cold front moves south and east the rain chances will be increasing across the areas to the south and the east. There may also be some thunderstorms, although at this point and time there is not to much to actually support severe weather. Though isolated severe maybe possible mainly in the form of winds..but again this is something that Real Wx Services is not to impressed with at this point and time.

If we can manage several hours of daytime heating from the sun, then this may have different results. As for now though we think clouds will more or less contaminate what otherwise could be severe potential.

Temperatures in the 40s to 50 in Maine , in the higher elevations of VT/NH where snow could occur temperatures will be in 30s. Northern NY in the 50s and then to the south of there kind of spring like in the 70s with even south of PA..

April 16th Severe Potential

 

 

 

I am not really impressed to much on the severe weather aspect with the SREF having the greatest severe weather parameters in and over eastern PA and western PA into Ohio.
CAPE LEVELS are only around 500
LI is around 2- to -4
However, lapse rates are pretty weak ...
Bulk Shear is between 30 and 40 kts..
Trigger would be an advancing cold front and area of low pressure...
Questions :
Dewpoints? What range do they make it to?
Cloud cover? Too much clouds early on will limit day time heating...
Daytime heating? how much sunshine will be involved which ties in with cloud cover above?
While I think there is a good chance that there will be thunderstorms, I am really not all that impressed on severe thunderstorms.

severe

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Rainfall Returns April 16-18th

Rainfall to return to the area as a complex area of fronts and an associated low pressure system move thru the region. A cold front will be dropping down across the region tonight and then is anticipated to stall on top of the region. Meanwhile a wave of low pressure is expected to develop along this front and move thru the region bringing a return to rain once again.A stronger cold front will then cross the region late friday night and behind this front the temperatures will once again take a nose dive!

aprilrain

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

April 15th Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE was 65 degrees…

Today is going to be a partly sunnny day but with increasing clouds and a increasing chance of rain and higher elevation snows across portions of the Northeast. the best chances of higher elevation snows will be in Northern NY State, NH, VT and Maine. By the end of the day clouds will be increasing across the rest of the region with the chance of rain moving in by late in the evening . However…i think with the exceptions of further north , the south locations should wait till Friday for any steadier rain and storms.

The high temperatures today are going to vary greatly from the 40s to lower 50s in SNE to NY State (eastern and Northern) into Northern New england with the 60s into the low to mid 70s from PA into SNJ and the lower 80s south of the PA/MD border.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

April 14th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE April 13th was 52 degrees.

Today is going to get off to a rather chilly start across the region with temperatures dipping down in the 30s to mid 30s and frost quite possible across some regions.

However, the day will end up being mostly sunny and temperatures will rebound quite nicely across the region. One exception may be the state of Maine where some showers are possible late in the day.

Temperatures will be in the 40s to 50s in the state of Maine and in the lower to middle 60s pretty much across the rest of the region. Today will be the start of a few warm sunny days before a complex frontal system moves into the region bringing the return for rain and higher elevation snows and cooler weather once again.

April 13th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE on April 12th was 65 degrees.

Today is generally going to be a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day, especially across the southern portion of the forecast region.

A shortwave  trough is going to be dropping south across the region with some lifting due to a strong jet streak diving into the base of the trough and this will cause some showers across the region…especially in the southern region where the better lifting will occur.

Otherwise , the rest of the region can expect more clouds then sun . However, further north clouds will be less of a problem and sunshine should be more abundant.

Temperatures though because of being under the influence of this trough are going to be cooler then they were yesterday,,with the 40s in Maine and some 20s in the highest elevations….to the 50s elsewhere across the Northeast and the mid atlantic region…

Monday, April 12, 2010

A Return To Rainy Weather!

The period of concern would be thursday thru friday night with perhaps some lingering showers into early Saturday! A complex series of fronts will be effecting the area in this time frame with a cold front dropping across the region  However, that cold front should then move back north as a warm front and a wave of low pressure potentially to develop along that front off the eastern seaboard, off the coast of New Jersey! This low pressure and the associated cold front looks to bring the return of moisture across the area. At this point and time the rainfall does not appear as if it is going to be excessive but rather more of a nuisance type rainfall. However with the dry weather that we have been having of late…any rainfall would be welcomed.

Another thing that almost seems certain with a split flow in the pattern developing along with some blocking over the GL region would be below normal temperatures for the time frame.

Stay tuned for further updates on the return to unsettled weather!

April 12th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature April 11th at KABE was 72 degrees…

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across the vast majority of the region. There could be some early snow/rain showers across the state of Maine and NH/VT…outside of that its going to be sunny skies and pleasant temperatures.

From NY and points Northeast until you get to Maine..temperatures will be in the 50s. In the Northern Parts of maine temperatures will be in the 40s. South of NY , temperatures will be in the lower 60s.

Sunday, April 11, 2010

April 11th Daily Weather Discussion

April 10th high temperature @ KABE was 60 degrees.

Today is going to be for the most part a partly sunny day across a vast amount of the region. Though to the north there is some showers occurring and that chance will continue today and also areas to the south may pick up a shower or two as well. However, for the most part the southern region will be rain free and the temperatures will be warmer today then they were yesterday..

Temperatures will be in the 40s once again in the state of Maine, 50s to low 60s in the rest of Northern new England and then the 60s to lower 70s from SNE and points south into PA , NJ and MD…

Saturday, April 10, 2010

April 10th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperatures on the 9th of April @ KABE was 57 degrees.

Cold front has moved thru the region and today will be another day where the weather is going to feel quite pleasant! Maybe a bit cool if you were one of the people that like the extreme warmth ..however..temperatures for the most part are going to be at seasonable levels across the vast majority of the forecast area.

Weather wise after some early morning rain and snow showers scattered in PA , NY and Maine..the skies will be partly to mostly sunny. The rest of the region will also be under partly to mostly sunny skies and a cool morning start but a seasonable afternoon.

Temperatures in Maine and parts of Northern New England will be in the 40s ..the rest of the region will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with plenty of sunshine.

This stretch of pleasant weather and seasonable temps looks to continue for the forseeable future.

Friday, April 9, 2010

April 9th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature April 8th was 84 degrees at KABE. Yesterday was the last day of extreme heat as the anticipated cold front has moved thru the region and the cooler air is filtering in.

For the most part the rain that is falling will continue to fall across the southern regions until about 6 to 8 AM ..there after to the south it will start to clear out but it will be noticeably cooler. Further to the north the rainfall will continue as the cold front continues to press its way to the east.

Temperatures will be in the 40s in the well interior regions and then the 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.

With the temperatures across the region being in the 80s and lower 90s previously , even though we only go back to normal temperatures its going to feel alot colder outside. Later tonight the temperatures will be going down into the 30s and potentially lower further north so it will definitely be a change that will be felt if outdoors.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Public Awareness Weather Day –Sat April 10th

The student chapter of the American Meteorological Society at Millersville University (of which I am President) is hosting its second annual "Public Weather Awareness Day" (or just, MU Weather Day). The event is free and includes many interactive weather exhibits like a live green screen, make-your-own booths and more. We also are hosting several weather-relating organizations such as the NWS and, of course, AccuWeather! There's also going to be tons of free food (snow cones, popcorn, cotton candy, etc.) and door prizes.
We have a website, facebook event and ad and lots of local advertising. While its very short notice (the event is this Saturday), I was wondering if I could post a topic somewhere on the forums to publicize the event? Again, it's free and open to the general public. It's made for families to come out and have some weather-related fun, which I think would be of interest to many on this board.
FYI, Millersville University is located just a few minutes outside of Lancaster, PA. It's about 1.5 hours from the Philadelphia area, 1.5 hours from Baltimore and 2 hours from state college.

Go here for more information

April 8th Daily weather Discussion

April 7th a new record high temperature was set at Allentown with a high temperature of 92 degrees. This beat out a record high from 1929 which was 88 degrees.

Today once again is going to be another warm day but perhaps not quite as warm as yesterday. It will all depend on the speed and timing of the cold front advancing towards the region and how fast the clouds move into the region.

However, there is a good chance for showers and perhaps some severe thunderstorms across the region as this cold front approaches. Any areas that see these thunderstorms will experience heavier rains then those that do not see thunderstorms.

Temperatures are going to range from the 40s and 50s in northern new england into Maine and in the 70s to 80s from Southern New England and points south!

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

April 8th Severe Weather Potential

The first chance at severe weather across the area was on the 6th ..however…only one storm report in Western NY came out of that threat.

The next chance becomes April 8th thursday afternoon between 18 Z and 00z. This appears to be a more bonafide threat then what the 6th was…as the 6th had high bust potential as we were marginal parameters and relying on a warm front being the trigger.

This time around once again we also have marginal parameters but this time we also have a much stronger trigger in a cold front advancing into very warm surface temperatures that will be in the 70s to lower 80s. The air behind this front is going to take the region back to below normal temperatures. So this go around there is a clashing of air masses and that factor should contribute to producing a severe weather potential

CAPE levels look between 750 and 1300, depending on whether one looks at the NAM/GFS

LIFT INDEX is between minus 2 and minus 4

LAPSE RATES are 6.0-6.5 and greater

BULK SHEAR looks to be between 30-40 knots…

All this points out to the potential for severe storms with supercell potential with the ability to produce damaging gusty winds and hail.

Due to the difference between the two air masses, we will not completely rule out an isolated tornado or two but at this point i would put the tornado threat at a less then 2% occurrence. severe

The greatest threat for severe weather would be within the red lines as that is the region that has the better parameters.

In addition to the winds, hail potential ..these storms will also be capable of producing heavy rains.

April 7th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on April 6th at KABE was 83 degrees. This fell just one degree shy of tying the record from 1929 of 84 degrees.

Today is going to be another warm if not down right hot day again depending on where you are. Across Northern & Western areas of the NE you may be seeing showers and thunderstorms do to the approaching cold front. This cold front will produce a significant drop in temperatures across the region.

However…for today aside from the aforementioned above areas we will be looking at mostly sunny skies across the region.

Temperatures from Southern New England into PA and NJ are going to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. In Central NY to Central New England temps will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s . To the North of that temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

April 6th Weather Discussion

The contrast of two different worlds today and two different temperature regimes. For starters a weak cold front moved across the region and now that very same cold front will be working back thru the region as a warm front. This will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region along with very warm temperatures to the south side of the warm front.

Most of the day though should be rain free but any areas that see any thunderstorms could experience gusty winds and heavy rains and small to large hail.

Real Wx Services has posted there severe weather potential map and at this present time that still is the current thinking.  If there is to be any changes they will be made in the early morning hours.

Daytime high temperatures are going to be 50s and 60s in Northern New England to the 60s and 70s in Southern New England. South of there though is where the heat is going to be felt with low to mid 80s and some places possibly along the PA/MD border in SC PA touching 90 degrees.

The high temperature for the 5th of April at KABE was 79 degrees which was just three degrees away from tying a record.

Monday, April 5, 2010

April 6th Severe Weather Potential

The potential exists for severe weather tomorrow across the region. The best chances for severe weather will be across PA into NY.

A cold front is going to be moving thru the region this evening but then return as a warm front tomorrow. To the south of this front is where severe potential can be realized. That front will act as the dividing line between very warm air and cooler air.

Dewpoints in the warm sector should be in the 50s and 60s with CAPE levels of around 500-1000 and Lift index around –2 to –4. Bulk shear looks to be around 30-40 KT…

This should be significant enough to cause thunderstorms to break out across the region with the daytime heating. These storms could potentially contain damaging wind gusts as well as small to large hail. As the daytime heating diminishes so will any thunderstorms and severe potential.

severe

April 5th Weather Discussion

The high temperature on Easter Sunday @ KABE was 73 degrees. I hope each and every one of you had a Happy Easter with your loved ones!

Today is once again going to be another beautiful day for the most part with Partly Sunny to Mostly Sunny skies. However, there is a cold front which is weakening that is working its way across the region and should cross the region later this evening.

There could be some scattered showers or thunderstorms with this front but for the most part it looks like it will be a dry frontal passage.

Temperatures are not going to go down behind this front because it will then move north as a warm front.

Todays high temperatures will be in the 60s in Maine to the mid to upper 70s to around 80 elsewhere across the region…

Sunday, April 4, 2010

April 4th Daily Weather Discussion

Happy Easter!

Today is going to be a good day for the kids to be having easter egg hunts across the region with partly to mostly sunny skies and once again warm temperatures!

Pretty much has been an amazing stretch of warm weather across the region and that looks to continue thru the next several days ahead.

Todays high temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s from the southern Mid Atlantic region to the Northeast!

April 3rd high temperature @ KABE was 73 degrees!

Once again, Happy Easter to each and every Real Wx Service reader!

Saturday, April 3, 2010

April 3rd Daily Weather Discussion

Almost sounds like a broken record because the weather has virtually along the east coast become tranquil. Sunny and warm conditions are going to once again be the rule across the region.

Daytime high temperatures are going to be in the 70s to lower 80s with the exception of Cape Cod where temperatures will be in the upper 60s.

All good things must come to an end eventually, however..it pretty much looks like these type of conditions should continue for the forseeable future.

High temperature April 2nd @ KABE was 75 degreees

Thursday, April 1, 2010

April 2nd Weather Discussion

Another beautiful weather day is on tap across the region with mostly sunny skies and warm spring like weather! The 2nd day in a series of days that will be unfolding weather wise across the area.

Temperatures are going to be in the 60s in the state of Maine, 70 interior regions of Northern New England, 70s in Southern new england though Cape Cod area may be held back into the 50-60 range. Further to the south upper 70s to lower 80s will be the call across the region!

These temperatures are much above normal for this time of the year.

April 1st 2010 , the high temperature at KABE was 74 degrees.

April 1st Weather Discussion

Well, they say April showers bring forth May Flowers. Well if that is the case there might not be that many flowers in the month of May if the first week of April is any indication of the rest of the month.

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day across the region and with a ridge of high pressure building into the region its going to be the start of a profound warm up across the region.

Sunny skies are going to be the rule across the region and basically for the next week or so there is not going to be much to talk about weather wise other then sunny skies and warm temperatures

So how warm is it going to become? Well we will have to take that one day at a time. Starting with today..the coolest location will be the state of Maine with temperatures in the 50s and then right down and along the SNE coast temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. Further in land temperatures will be in the 70s and i would not be surprised to see some locations inland in PA touch  80 degrees.

The high temperature for the last day of March @ KABE was 63 degrees!