I am not really impressed to much on the severe weather aspect with the SREF having the greatest severe weather parameters in and over eastern PA and western PA into Ohio.
CAPE LEVELS are only around 500
LI is around 2- to -4
However, lapse rates are pretty weak ...
Bulk Shear is between 30 and 40 kts..
Trigger would be an advancing cold front and area of low pressure...
Questions :
Dewpoints? What range do they make it to?
Cloud cover? Too much clouds early on will limit day time heating...
Daytime heating? how much sunshine will be involved which ties in with cloud cover above?
While I think there is a good chance that there will be thunderstorms, I am really not all that impressed on severe thunderstorms.
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