The Next Weather Maker

First off we like to say thank you to all the warm comments we have received from members via Facebook on the R.W.S weather page and the increased jump in membership which occurred because of the Pre Winter Storm Snowstorm of Oct 29th 2011.

We were anticipating a Historical Storm and as such we were not let down with impressive totals of 30 + inches in some locales and a widespread 6-12 across the region. As that becomes a staple of history..one thing we learned many years ago is that the weather MUST go on! And so we do!

So we turn our attention to the next weather maker.  Before we go into details lets look at the guidance.

We are going to start with the 12 Z guidance..

On the European Computer Model we see an area of low pressure over the SE Coast. Basically the European computer model shows a cold front marching across from west to east and a weak mid level shortwave develops a weak surface low and scoots an area of rain to the south of PA..

Now ..above is the UKMET and you can see that the UKMET has a very weak low off the Mid Atlantic Coast…At times the UKMET can be extremely useful when it is radically different in a track compared to the ECM because often times it will point out that the ECM is in error. We believe this is the case this time around as well and we are about to show you why shortly.

Now..above is the GFS from 12 Z and this model has the storm located pretty close to NW ARK at 96 hrs. but then as it moves it eastwards it essentially shears out and falls apart.

We feel at 12 Z that the GFS model was a complete outlier. Why? Well lets now look at 00z guidance for the same time frame (Friday 12 Z on the GFS)

Now we see that it has a more “coherent” low pressure area but a relatively weak system and located pretty much similar to the 12 Z ECM. This is usually the case where the ECM leads the way and eventually the GFS and rest of guidance will follow.

However…one thing that we teach all those interested in weather is to ALWAYS look to the ensemble means. Also remember we said we believe the UKMET above from 12 Z is acting as a red flag to the ECM ..and you see this when you turn to the ensemble means:

Notice where the low pressure is? It is essentially located in the vicinity of where the 12 Z UKMET was located and slightly more better organized.

So here is what we are anticipating:

We ask the readers to be very careful because there is some very confusing information going around on the internet about this next system and they are showing a system that starts in the Rockies and makes a Hook NNE into Minnesota. That is the NEXT SYSTEM after this system!

Essentially what we are dealing with is an area of low pressure that will move out of the Southwest in a east to northeast fashion. Extending from this area of low pressure is a cold front that essentially runs from the SW to the NE to a low pressure area up in South Central Canada. As that low in South Central Canada moves east it will drag the cold front from west to east across the USA..while our storm system moves ENE.

This storm system will allow  areas in the west like Colorado and Wyoming the opportunity to pick up some snowfall before it starts to move East Northeast.

As it moves further east with no cold air source in place it will produce showers and thunderstorms along the front with the possibility of some of the storms going severe.

Further to the east , on the east coast it should produce showers of rain but since the flow is relatively fast in the upper levels we are not expecting the system to become intense enough  to produce any heavy rains..

After that area of low pressure moves past the region..High pressure will build across the east and the action will turn to the west with storm potential #2 but this storm will take a hook turn NNE and move across Minnesota while the east is under the influence of high pressure.

While not going into details on the second system this is generally the track expected..

The most we can say at this time is this looks to be a potentially stronger system that may actually have severe weather out ahead of it.

Stay tuned as we keep you ahead of the rest!

Level 3 Ruh Roh Alert For Oct 29-30th2011

For those of you who are not aware of what Level 3 Alert is …here is the definition:

Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...
Once a storm is within 24 hrs. and the first preliminary map is issued ..depending on the scenario it will state which level is in effect and there will also be a special weather statement issued.

So as of 4 AM we are issuing a level 3 Alert for the first widespread early PRE WINTER SNOWSTORM!

Lets get right into it shall we?

Models have converged on a solution ..Low pressure will start to develop over the SE by about 18 Z or 2 PM today . Then by about 00z or 8 PM we will see another low begin to take shape off Cape Hatteras. The northern stream piece of energy will be digging a trough into the eastern regions and this will cause the northern stream energy to phase with our southern stream energy along the coast and cause the trough to go negative tilt and pull this system up the eastern seaboard so that by about Sunday 00z or *Saturday evening* we have a Nor'easter about 50-75 miles east of Southern New Jersey!

Meanwhile cold air is filtering into the region now and because the upper levels are cold which you will see on the images that will be posted & the dynamics that will be in place..this storm will cause dynamical cooling to occur thru a large portion of the region.

This storm will have plenty of moisture to tap into with 1-2 inches liquid equivalent. If this were the dead of winter we would be talking about 1-2 feet of snow for most if not all locations including the big cities.

However we are talking about October 29th…and with the waters warm for this time of the year ..this will pull some warmer air in off the ocean and into those coastal locations and this will keep the snowfall totals on the lower side and allow either a rain transitioning to snow or a mainly rain event depending on where you are located on the map above.

Now lets look at the guidance from 00z…

As you can see the GGEM/GFS/ECM/UKMET are all essentially on the same page! There are some folks out there saying that the GGEM and UKMET are east of the GFS and ECM but the images above show remarkable agreement! As you can see the 850s are also supportive of frozen precipitation.

The GFS is the most AMPED solution out of the 00z guidance and its means is amped even more.

We believe that the best combination of models to blend together is the GFS & the ECM. This is how we came up with the above image for total snowfall!

There is some possibility that this could come slightly further west yet based on the GFS means and the 00z NOGAPS which since it is the most progressive model looked like this..

To show you some snowfall images from the 00z ECM we can show you the following:

These are three hour totals to give you an idea at 10:1 ratios. We think the snow ratios will be along the lines of 7:1 .

A problem with the upcoming storm system is that with the high pressure to the North and the deepening low pressure and the time of the year we are dealing with will be the snow will be a heavy wet, plastering snow. This means we could have power lines down and tree limbs down.

This storm if it pans out the way we are thinking and the way guidance is suggesting is about to make weather history for the region!

We have been talking about this storm for some time now and we have been ahead of ALL the major media outlets with the NWS just catching on yesterday afternoon!

If you have not yet done so..now is the time to find us on Facebook and let your friends and family know that this outlet has spread the word about this storm to you well in advance of the rest of the media!

Stay tuned next update if needed will be later this afternoon!

October 29-30th Pre Winter Storm Update

If you have been following us on our FB page

Click here For FB PAGE 

Then you are aware that for the past 24 hours we have been talking about this system for this time frame would be coming back west and more amplified. If you have not been following us on that page then you have been missing the latest updates! The page above is updated all day long where we only put out the major updates on the blog here.

We are not going to be re issuing a map for the event at this point and time but in the next 24 hrs. we will be issuing a final map. However…a lot has happened over the last 24 hrs. of modeling when it comes to this storm!

Weather outlets are still pretty much sleeping on the potential for the first snowfall in a lot of locations!

So lets look at the latest guidance and some additional images.

The first model we are placing up above is the 00z NOGAPS at 72 hrs. You can see by the image above that we have quite the potent system off the eastern seaboard. The reason this model is first is because it is the most progressive model and using it in its proper perspective if any model is east of this or in the same location then there is a high likely hood that the solution will move more west.

GFS at 66 and 72 hours! As you can see by the above images the GFS has come a good distance west from previous runs and perhaps the two most important aspects are:

1. Just about 48 hrs. ago it did not really even have this system..

2. It has come in more amplified since 24 hrs. ago and more so in the last 12 hrs.

This is something we said could happen as all the energy now expected to create this storm is now in better sample sounding areas and we would not be surprised to see this come further west at 12 Z and more amplified and amplification is KEY in OCTOBER!

The above is the 00z JMA. Now not that many weather outlets even bother with the JMA but this model has been consistent with showing a bigger storm along the east coast and we think this has merit since the rest of the guidance tonight has moved in that direction as well.

Next up is the 00z UKMET and you can see that the 00z UKMET is still showing a rather strong potent system along the east coast. This is another model that has been consistent with this solution save one run where it had actually kept the system way to the south!

The above is the 00z ECM. Now there are some people on the internet who must have been following a model other then the ECM because the ECM has been consistently showing this system along the east coast, amplified as a Major storm …except for one run where it was less amplified but never the less still along the east coast.

Now here is another image from the ECM which is the same hr. as above just this is at the surface..

Now as you can see by the above the temperatures drop off pretty quickly by this frame and this is because of that word I used earlier! DYNAMICS! What happens is the deformation band sets up and dynamics kick in and pull the colder air from the upper levels down to the surface and you are left with snow!

Now as one can plainly see the models are in very good agreement tonight at 00z. The guidance clearly shows a potent system along the east coast.

Now before we go into our thoughts we have some more images to show you! The first one is the 00z GFS ensemble means at 72 hrs. and we are going to show it twice..First as the normal image and the second one by Pro Met Dave Tolleris which we have very much respect for!

Now if you go back up you will see the operational and you can see that the GFS means is as AMPED as the operational but this is important, the image above is a smoothed down version of 12 individual members, . It is also further south then the operational.

Now what this implies is that in the individual members there is some very AMPED up members with a lot of QPF..and that is the reason why it is more south because the more amplification…the slower the system would move and also the more west the system would come. So the fact that the smoothed down means is AMPED up and the fact that it is further south we are anticipating this model to come slightly further west and more amplified!

Now to give you an idea of surface temperatures on this model:

66 hrs. and this is 2 PM Saturday and over a good portion of the region its in the 30s! Remember we came in more amped on the 00z run but if the thinking is correct on some more amplification then these temperatures could be lower (DYNAMICS) and potentially allow snowfall into the Major cities of the NE. For now the safest bet for the cities would be a rain to snow scenario.

However there is some interesting images and these are from the ECM..These are 3 hr. snowfall images from 66-69 hrs. and then 69-72 hrs..

So you can see that the 00z ECM does indeed show snow into the big cities as well as other inland locations.

Well…how about one more interesting image which is just showing percentages at this point of locations getting there first inch of the season: This is put out by HPC (PROFESSIONALS)

Wow, now that is pretty impressive for 72 hours out!

Remember folks that this is OCTOBER that we are talking about and if this happens as some of the guidance is suggesting and we have been thinking and talking about for quite some time now this storm will be making HISTORY  in some parts of the Northern Mid Atlantic into the Northeast!

Stay tuned for another update after 12 Z and the final map later this evening or around this same time!

Rain to Snowstorm is it possible this weekend?

The talk around the internet world is whether or not there is going to be a rain to snowstorm this weekend effecting the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. Depending on where you read you will see some people are talking a blizzard..others you will see saying snow is not possible in the month of October..Still yet others are saying that guidance does not suggest anything resembling a storm.

Real Wx Services is going to take a approach where we need to look at the guidance and weather history to see if we can come up with a sensible approach to the answer to this question.

Above is the ensemble height anomaly map and you can see that it suggests that we have transient blocking with a positive height anomaly over the Davis Straight.

above is the image from the ECM at 12 Z..

Above is the image from the GFS at 18 Z . This is looking at the 500 mb level. Now if you look at these two images alone you will see that the upper air pattern is fairly similar…the difference lies in where the upper energy is focused. The ECM has the upper energy focused over western PA and western VA while the GFS is back further to the west. Hence the ECM the trough goes negative tilt and we are left with this at 96 hrs…

And then this system rides Northeast up the coast delivering a intense Nor Easter.

However..the GFS since it is further west with the energy, misses the phase and we are left with this:

Misses the phase and we have a low pressure that scoots OTS and just grazes extreme Southern New England locations.

It should be also noted that the 12 Z UKMET does not have a system effecting the east coast during this time range and neither does the 12 Z GGEM..However..one does not have to reflect that far back to see that the GGEM about 48 hrs ago was taking this system (quite strong too) thru Eastern PA into NY State..and it was just less then 24 hours ago that the UKMET was holding hands with the ECM.  The ECM has been consistently showing this system for 4 consecutive runs. So if we just judge by consistency alone then we would have to side with the ECM. It has been the most consistent ..it is also backed up by its ensemble means..it is historically the best verifying model at 120 hours and under and yet there is one more factor I like to look at in reference to the modeling of this system.

Flash back if you would to the year 1996. A full week before the Blizzard of 1996 the ECM was showing  blizzard. Weather outlets and media outlets dismissed the ECM because the rest of the guidance was showing an out to sea solution. Matter of fact it was not till the day before that the rest of guidance caught on to what was happening but by then it was to late as weather outlets all over were just calling for flurries/snow showers including outlets like the weather channel. We need not rehash the amounts that fell from that raging blizzard . The moral of the story is the ECM was alone and verified accurately.

So here we are again but fifteen years later and facing the same dilemma (minus the blizzard thinking) ..

At 18 Z we notice that the GFS has taken what would be considered baby steps in the right direction towards what the ECM is showing. Upper air pattern is very similar..and the system has come further west then the 12 Z

You can tell this by noticing the precipitation how it is more to the NW and then as well the system at 12 Z you could barely see on the right side of the map and at 18 Z it is more noticeable.

Now another thing we need to factor in here is the tool that we used last year which was the NOGAPS.

Now the above is the 12 Z NOGAPS at 108 hrs and notice how it is essentially lock & stock in the same position as the 12 Z GFS? This should raise a red flag that the GFS is being as progressive as the most bias progressive model.

Now lets look at the above image which is also the NOGAPS but this is from the 18 Z run. Notice how the model has come back towards the west? Once again it is further west then what the GFS is suggesting…

So with all the above mentioned we are leaning towards the ECM & its consistency at this point and time and have introduced a scenario map with what we think will be the most likely snow amounts. This map is PRELIMINARY & Highly subject to change… however we want to make readers aware of the potential of what could happen IF the ECM scores another victory.

Now …there is one CAVEAT to this scenario and prelim outlook above and that is Hurricane Rina.

Notice how the GFS is showing the Hurricane effecting Florida..

Shows quite a healthy system effecting Florida.. On the other hand the ECM:

Shows no system effecting Florida.

Latest 00z models :

Only two to three models show the same possibility as the GFS. All the rest of the models suggest that RINA will meet its demise in or around CUBA.

So another potential wild card to throw off the prelim map above is IF the GFS is correct with its RINA effecting Florida cause essentially this would ROB the southern stream vort from its energy and would allow the system to slide off the east coast and OTS.

So that is where we stand right now… we will update this in another 24 hours!

Cold frontal passage rain & snow!

Essentially the above map is showing where we expect a change from rain over to snow across the region. If you are in the diamond white zone there is a potential you may see some flakes mixed in the rain from time to time once the cold front is thru.

For rain we are generally expecting along and ahead of the cold front about 1-1.50 inches of rain to fall.

There is still the potential for a second system over the weekend this could be on Saturday..this system with the latest guidance has the potential to also bring some snow to the region.

We will continue to keep you updated on that aspect as we get closer to the time frame!

Cold Frontal Passage Update & Beyond!

We are going to start this update off by talking about the cold frontal passage. Due to the time that this update is being done we will not do a rainfall total map with this update but we will follow this update with a map later on in the day today..

Now you will recall we started talking about this being a cold frontal passage that would be slow to approach the area and that this frontal passage would produce showers and rain and have the potential of some snowflakes on the back side of the frontal passage if there is enough QPF left over. There is no real change in thinking from that which we put out on the 20th of the month.

Models had gone thru there cha cha which some outlets , some of which were pro’s were guilty of jumping on and suggesting that a wave was going to develop along the front and produce heavy snow in locations. Well..those outlets were doing something we are strictly against which is forecasting what they WANT to see happen or giving an opinion instead of a forecast based on the guidance that is available. So lets look at that guidance tonight!

Now the above models as you can see our the ECM and the GFS. These are the two models that we prefer to use for this upcoming cold front.

We are once again going to lean towards the ECM in this forecast with showers moving into the region early Wednesday morning between 8 am and 12 noon. Low pressure should develop off the coast of SNJ which will enhance the rainfall across the region. As for the cold front itself it should approach eastern PA on Thursday evening. Temperatures ahead of this front will probably be in the mid 50-s to low 60s in southern PA up towards NYC. This is WHY this will be a mainly RAIN event..however.. by 2 AM temperatures should be in the 30s in all of PA with the exception of extreme SE PA and central and SNJ . If at this point and time there is any precipitation left over it is possible that snow flakes could mix in with the rain or even just change to some light snow..However..with ground temperatures being so warm..it would not be able to accumulate so most locations IF they do change over would be less then a dusting.

Rainfall expectations with this cold frontal passage are between 1-2 inches.

Now this is where things become a little interesting and once again we are looking out ahead by about 6-7 days.

The cold front moves thru and guidance is beginning to pick up on a piece of energy that is left behind.

GFS keeps this pretty well south and east and virtually has no effect on the region.

It is important to keep in mind two things in regards to the GFS:

1. In this range it has a cold bias

2. In this range it can also have a SE bias

The GFS never really digs the trough that deep so the system stays OTS.

When we turn to the other guidance…

The above is the UKMET and you can see as well how this delivers a system in the southeast and then moves this system up the eastern seaboard.

We turn to the ECM and this to shows the same type of scenario and not as far off the coast as the GFS and it effects the region.

Temperatures on the ECM at 2 PM in the afternoon on the ECM  struggle to get out of the 30s to lower 40s. And the precipitation would probably begin as rain but this one has more potential to change over to snow in the interior regions and perhaps into the I-95 region.

Now we are going to re introduce a tool that we used last year which worked out quite well and that was using the NOGAPS as a tool.

To refresh or to explain to the new fans of R.W.S the model is the most progressive model that there is..However ..we found it is useful..with every storm during the winter last year if the NOGAPS was further west then the rest of the guidance..it was an indication that the guidance was to far east and would readjust west…

Using this tool: lets look at this second potential system:

If this works as it  did last year this is an indication that this second potential system should come closer to the coast in future runs. Why? Because this is such a fast progressive model –reality says it should be showing this further east..but since its not..it raises that red flag.

To sum things up:

Cold front with 1-2 inches of rain to move thru and effect the region in the wed-Thursday night time frame.

Potential 2nd system with rain to snow?

Stay tuned as we keep you informed !