It has been some time since we have had anything in the tropics to actually discuss. This is not to say that the tropics have been dead because we have had Ophelia and most recent Philippe..but these systems stayed out in the Atlantic and did not have any effect on the east coast.
Fast forward to now and the above is a water vapor image off of wunderground showing the latest in the tropics which is invest 93 L.
We are going to start off right away saying that we do not like the chances of this becoming anything greater then a Tropical Depression. It is possible that it may make a tropical depression but this would not be until it emerges over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
As you can see by looking at the steering currents above a large high pressure is across the east. This high pressure area is acting as a block across the region and will more or less cause this system to cross over Florida before it is able to start to move North. The models are showing an Omega Block in place which will cause this system to also move rather slowly.This high pressure will eventually move further east and when it does it will allow the system in the south to move north.
Now when we look at the guidance from today we see that they agree on moving the system northwards but they also show a rather disorganized system.
Both these images are for 96 hours and the top is the GFS while the bottom is the ECM. They are both showing a disorganized system ..however..they are also both showing a decent amount of rain to effect the area.
While this system may or may not get its act together enough to become tropical it will have the ability to tap into moisture from the GOM as well as the Atlantic as it moves Northwards. However, to complicate matters we have a strong cold front that will be crossing the region Friday morning and this may enhance any rainfall that is still occurring.
Now, the above is the same time frame as the earlier two images but you can see one difference. These are the ensemble means of the ECM (top) and GFS (bottom) and you can see that the means of the models are showing a more organized system then there operational counterparts. This is the way that we are leaning with the forecast.
Rain should start to overspread the entire region during the day on Wednesday and the heaviest rainfall should occur from Wednesday night into the first part of Thursday with the rainfall then tapering off to showers and should start to come to an end on Friday during the morning hours.
As for rainfall:
While we have had some time to dry out..with some locations receiving well over 24 inches in August and September this may just be enough to once again cause flooding.
As we noted on our Facebook page that even though this is NOT a tropical storm at this point and time it is producing tropical storm force winds. So..if this system does become better organized and deepens as it moves up the coast or just inland of the coast..we could also end up seeing winds of 20-30 MPH..especially along the coast.
Stay tuned for any further information should it become necessary!
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