Folks you are taking a look at Ophelia. Pretty much the world of weather had forgotten about Ophelia because she had degenerated into a remnant low. However, Ophelia has always been a trackable entity. On our facebook page ,
We have been constantly talking about this system and keeping track of it. Matter of fact we had mentioned yesterday already that we felt this was a Tropical Depression as its appearance on satellite had definitely improved and you could clearly see a center of circulation rotating east of the convection. Today the NHC as of 5 PM has finally acknowledged this as once again a tropical depression.
The question is what is going to happen to Ophelia? Well lets look at the environment around Ophelia so we can determine the answer to this question.
First thing we come across is that the system is elongated from SW to NE. Essentially what this means is it will take a little extra time to strengthen.
Wind shear is not really an issue at this point and time with about 5-10 knots ..however there is indeed more shear to the north of the system which could be effecting the northern side of the system.
Divergence is decent across the system ..meanwhile convergence is a little lacking with the best convergence off to the east of the system.
So, overall the environment is decent for some slow strengthening to occur with Ophelia. Now what about movement. Well we need to look at the guidance and we need to look at the steering currents to determine the movement over the future with this system.
Now the above is the GFS with 12 Z and 18 Z , as well as the ECM & also the GGEM. The GGEM actually has landfall very close to if not on Nova Scotia. While the GFS/ECM both suggest that this will NOT make landfall in Nova Scotia and all three models suggest that this will stay away from the United states.
While this is the most likely scenario we have to suggest that in order for these models (at least the GFS & ECM) to be correct the system has to more or less start to move towards the Northwest from the beginning..Is this possible?
The steering currents show a subtropical ridge to the North of Ophelia. This ridge has been in place for some time now and this would suggest that Ophelia would have to continue to move off to the West Northwest in the short term. This would lend some credence more towards the GGEM.
Ultimately what should happen is that the trough that is over the central to eastern part of the country should move off the coast and this SHOULD cause Ophelia to stay out at sea..
However..if you are in Bermuda or Nova scotia you may want to pay attention to the future of Ophelia . With the environment supportive of strengthening we do think that Ophelia should become a Hurricane..
Stay tuned for more information and updates are constantly posted on our facebook page!
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