The above is the latest track that we have laid out for the next 7 days. Models are in pretty tightly clustered agreement on this track essentially. At this point and time it appears that Maria could be a potential threat to the Southeast, in particular Florida.
As you can see from the image above which is the latest visible image of MARIA..MARIA is not looking to healthy. Matter of fact we think Maria will be downgraded to a tropical depression and perhaps even just a tropical wave within the next 24 hrs.
This is due to the environment around MARIA at the current time..
The above images are the convergence, divergence and the shear. 20-30 knots of shear currently over the system. Convergence lacking and divergence is only marginal at this present time.. and mainly east of the center.
Maria should continue to move to the south of the subtropical ridge until she gets to the western periphery of that ridge which means she should start to move more west Northwest at that time..
The above is the tropical cyclone heat potential image. As you can see the waters are going to become supportive for strengthening, especially once it starts to near Pr. Again, similar with IRENE it will be very important for this system to go as close to PR and Hispaniola but avoiding these land masses. If MARIA does not avoid these land masses there is the potential for dissipation but we feel presently that this should take a course N of Hispaniola & the potential is there for MARIA to become a Hurricane..
Stay tuned for more information !
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