Katia Update & Potential Maria

The above image includes the latest and final track for Hurricane Katia. In addition to this it also includes what we feel has the potential to become a tropical cyclone. Lets first talk about Katia..

If you recall back on August 29th we had issued a ten day tracking map. Granted the speed turned out to be a little faster then anticipated but overall the track worked out fairly well considering it was issued WHILE KATIA was only an invest. In addition to that we had also said that KATIA would become a major hurricane and that indeed had happened and occurred as well.

Now the above is the latest image of Katia and since yesterday National Hurricane center has had to adjust there track to the west from the previous track but they still think it will stay off the coast. We agree with this thinking as we do not think an east coast landfall is going to happen. However, we feel that a closer to the east coast is possible with KATIA perhaps obtaining to about 72 W. The question becomes when will Katia make the turn NORTHEAST after she finally makes the turn North? We think the most likely track will probably have her making the turn NE once she approaches 35 N. This track will bring KATIA very close to CAPE COD which would cause CAPE COD to experience the outer bands from KATIA.

So while KATIA more then likely will not make landfall on the east coast..parts of the east coast will still be effected by Hurricane Katia. Now the other questions are centered around the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee and the ridge off the east coast & timing of Hurricane Katia.

The further west that the cut off low (once LEE) is..the further west KATIA could come. Also if the ridge off the east coast is stronger this could allow a more westerly track as well. So while we think the east coast is spared any landfall..anyone along the east coast from N Carolina up should continue to keep an eye on Katias motions.

Keep in mind that guidance is a tool but satellite and water vapor will always be more accurate..

If one looks at the water vapor above please keep an eye on 30 N and 70 W ..IF KATIA were to cross  70 W without reaching 30 N and not making the turn to the North then a closer west track would be possible. Also it appears as though KATIA could have slowed down..So even though it appears that she should have little effect on the east coast..any deviant from the expected track changes the whole situation.

Now on to Maria. The disturbance in the southern GOM may get named Maria or it could actually end up being NATE, depending on whether or not the disturbance out in the Atlantic develops quicker then the disturbance in the southern GOM.

The guidance we are leaning on more does not really develop Invest 95 L that quickly so we feel that the disturbance in the southern GOM has the greatest potential in the next 5 days.

Now you may be reading that the US is protected at this point and time from any tropical disturbances. Folks this is completely irrational thinking because we just seen Tropical Storm Lee develop and make landfall in the USA. IF maria does indeed develop she indeed does have the potential to effect the US and move generally in the same direction as LEE moved.

So stay with us as we continue to follow KATIA and the disturbance that should become MARIA.