Lets talk severe weather probabilities! A look ahead!

Guidance is pretty much in agreement on an upper level ridge building into the area. This will start to actually head towards the region today but we will not feel its full effects until friday-Sunday. At this point and time temperatures are going to be in the 70s and maybe even make a push into the 80s. One caveat to this maybe a southeasterly flow around the Long Island area which could help to stunt the warm up in that part of the region.

A weak cold front should cross the area on or around monday of next week but at this point and time it looks like it will be a dry frontal passage for the most part with just a slight knockback on the temperatures. However..its after this in the wednesday to friday time frame that I am referencing. There are some timing issues with the models with the GFS being slightly more progressive and the ECM delaying by about 24-48 hrs on what appears to be a much stronger cold frontal passage.

Out ahead of this front the ECM warms things up again after the slight knockback on Monday.. You can see that in these images..

You can see the upper level ridge built in across the region that would be resulting once again in some warmer temperatures probably in the 70’s and maybe some 80s as well.

You can also see the cool down with the low pressure that appears to go into the lakes and then Canada and the passage of the cold front

As mentioned the GFS shows the same type of scenario but it would be a earlier time frame then what the ECM is showing.

Here at Real Wx Services we like to try and stay one step ahead at all points and times.

This is not a forecast saying to get ready for severe weather but if the model guidance is correct it could be an opportunity for the potential of severe weather to occur.

Real Wx Services will continue to monitor the situation and will let you know if indeed you can expect severe weather to happen in your region!

March 31 st Weather Discussion

Well the flooding that Real Wx Services was alluding to had returned as well as the heavy rains into eastern PA yesterday! In addition , the storm was able to essentially create its own cold air and the highest elevations in PA received some early spring season snowfall which was not expected by any weather service including this one. Most areas received 4.5 inches or under but one locale that i came across received 7.5 inches.

So today is basically going to be a continuation along the eastern part of the state of PA and into NJ. At least during the early morning hours. Some more light rain will fall adding to those rainfall totals. By afternoon things should start to clear out and also warm up and this will be the start of a beautiful spring warm up! So those places that received snowfall after the rain ..it will be melting rather quickly.

Rains will continue up in Northern New England where historic flooding has been taking place. Again, this flooding we warned about with the excessive rainfall totals.

Temperatures today will be in the 40s in Maine and then the 50s thru out the rest of the Northeast and from PA south upper 50s to upper 60s and as i said this is just the start of some warm spring air returning..Matter of fact we are going to be going well above normal for the weekend!

High temperature on the 30th at KABE was 47 degrees!

March 30th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature march 29th at KABE was 57 degrees.

Thankfully it appears as if the heaviest rain has and is going to continue to stay to the east and north of the region. Never the less heavy rains have been occurring just not over the inland areas like originally thought. About .76 had fallen @ KABE and its possible that today yet about another inch of rain or so could fall across the local region.  Further north and east is where the most rainfall is expected and that would be from LI north and east.

Level 3 alert has been dropped for PA and NJ and points south but continues for LI and points NE where some places are expected to receive historical flooding with more heavy rains today.

Temperatures from North to South are basically going to range from 40-50 degrees.

While the heavy rains were not realized here in PA into Northern New Jersey ..Real Wx Services feels that issuing a level 3 alert was not the wrong thing to do. In cases where cut off lows are involved to pinpoint the exact cut off of the low pressure becomes a very difficult process. At the time guidance was suggesting that it would be needed and verify but in the end the guidance was too far west.

However…regardless of the southern end not working out as expected Real Wx Services still introduced the flooding aspect of this storm for across Southern New England well in advance of the National Weather Service offices!

So What’s Next?

The next question that arises is what is next on the weather horizon? It appears that after this area of low pressure moves out of the way we are going to go thru the remainder of the week with sunny and warm weather building in. This warm weather will come as a result of a ridge of high pressure moving into the region.

Temperatures look to warm into the 60s and then by the weekend they look to warm into the 70s with 60s into Maine. However..guidance is beginning to indicate a cold front moving thru between sunday and monday.

Until that point and time after the rain moves out we will have sunny skies and warm spring like weather.

March 29th Rainfall Potential Update

Front appears to be stationary just inland along the coast. This should act as a storm track for this coastal low to follow. All models that i have looked at from 12 Z today , whether it be the NAM/GFS/ECM essentially move this low up along the coast and then have it retrograde towards the coast...
What this essentially means is that the moisture during the day today should continue to ride up along the coast in the locations that have been receiving it. Later tonight and overnight as the low pressure begins to retrograde the precipitation shield should begin to pivot to the WNW and rain should start to fall once again in places like KPHL into east central PA ...
Amounts look to be in the 1-2 inch range once the rain starts back up in the KPHL area and 3 inches + still looks possible in NNJ and NYC and LI.

March 29th Daily Weather Discussion

March 28th high temperature at KABE was 50 degrees which actually came later in the evening before midnight..

Today is going to be a rainy day across vast majority of the region. Most of the rain should have already moved thru the western part of the state all though some lighter showers are possible.

Its along the eastern Seaboard that is going to be under the gun for heavy rains to slightly inland with the cut off in PA probably being about south central and east central PA and then the rain will continue into the northeast. In the early part of the day (the overnight hours) snow will be occurring in the NW portion of the state of Maine but even there it will turn to all rain as the warmer air comes up the coast.

So basically if you are on the east coast along the coast and slightly inland plan  for heavy rains and probably increasing winds later on towards evening into the overnight.

Temperatures are going to be in the lower 40s to lower 50s in the state of Maine. Lower 40s to lower 50s in Northern NY and Western NY and in the 50s to low 60s pretty much elsewheres.

Once again if you are living in a flood proned area then be extremely careful when travelling outside today with the heavy rain that will be occurring!

March 28-30th Level 3 Alert For Flooding!

 

March 28 th 2010

Time: 2:50  AM EST

Time frame effected: March 28th 9 PM thru March 30th 12 Noon

Areas effected: Southern New England, Central New England into Northern Parts of New England and southern Maine,  NYC, All of NJ, All of Long Island, East Central PA , Southeast PA, central PA, NE PA, All of NJ, Delaware & Eastern Md , All of  VA , except extreme Western VA

Low pressure developing over the southern Plains will become a closed low once it is along the eastern sea board, This low pressure area will move East Northeast and be near SW Ohio by 00z Monday.

This area of low pressure will have a large influx of moisture from off the Atlantic and be  a very moisture laden system as well as a slow moving system. The abundant moisture and the slow movement of this system will enhance the flood threat across the above mentioned regions. Many of these regions are still experiencing higher then normal rivers from the previous rain events that have occurred.
Rainfall Totals will be a widespread area of 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts with any convective rains and thunderstorms.
Severe weather will basically be confined to the southeast part of the country ..However there is the potential for some general thunder and lightning.
Next issue is the winds... with a deepening area of low pressure and a 1030 high to the north this is going to set up a pretty tight gradient ..so at this point and time thinking winds could before this storm is over be gusting anywhere from 40-45 MPH with potentially higher gusts. Beach erosion is also going to be an issue along with rough surf and high tides.

Once again if you live in a flood prone area..Real Wx Services urges you to take whatever necessary cautions you will need to take in order to keep you and your house safe from any rising flood waters.

March 28th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature @ KABE was 46 degrees for the 27th of March.

As Real Wx Service has been talking about for at least the past 36 hours..Very heavy rain and flooding is on the way for the Today thru tuesday time period. Rain will be spreading from west to east and should be encompassing the entire area by midnight with rain starting in western locations first and then further east towards late afternoon evening. This looks to be a soaker across the region with 3-5 + not out of the question.

Temperatures will be in the 30s in Maine to lower 40s towards the coast in Maine and the mid 40s to mid 50s elsewheres. Do not be surprised if later tonight in the overnight hours that the temperatures actually start to rise with the southerly flow that will be increasing with the warm front approaching..

March 28-30th Level 3 Alert For Flooding!

March 28-30th Level 3 Alert For Flooding!

March 27th 2010

Time: 2 PM EST

Time frame effected: March 28th 9 PM thru March 30th 6 AM

Areas effected: Southern New England, NYC, All of NJ, All of Long Island, East Central PA , Southeast PA, central PA, NE PA, All of NJ, Delaware & Eastern Md , Northern VA

Low pressure developing over the southern Plains will become a closed low once it is along the eastern sea board, This low pressure area will move East Northeast and be near SW Ohio by 00z Monday.

This area of low pressure will tap into the GOM and be a very moisture laden system as well as a slow moving system. The abundant moisture and the slow movement of this system will enhance the flood threat across the above mentioned regions. Many of these regions are still experiencing higher then normal rivers from the previous rain events that have occurred.
Real Wx Services is also monitoring in addition to the heavy rainfall the potential for strong gusty winds .

Next Statement to be issued by 3 AM March 28th 2010

March 28-30th Level 2 Alert For Flooding!

March 27th 2010

Time: 3:40 AM

Time frame effected: March 28th 9 PM thru March 30th 6 AM

Areas effected: Southern New England, NYC, All of NJ, All of Long Island, East Central PA , Southeast PA, All of NJ, Delaware & Eastern Md.

Low pressure developing over the southern Plains will become a closed low once it is along the eastern sea board, This low pressure area will move East Northeast and be near SW Ohio by 00z Monday.

This area of low pressure will tap into the GOM and be a very moisture laden system as well as a slow moving system. The abundant moisture and the slow movement of this system will enhance the flood threat across the above mentioned regions. Many of these regions are still experiencing higher then normal rivers from the previous rain events that have occurred.

Right now it appears that the heaviest rain fall will be situated over some of the same areas that had previously been hit hard with the potential for 2-4 inches of rain and with any convective rain and storms locally higher amounts.

Real Wx Services will continue to monitor the situation. Next statement to be issued March 28th at 2 AM at which time an upgrade to level 3 will be issued if guidance continues to indicate the flooding potential.

Real Wx Services will also issue its one and only map at that point and time.

Make any necessary precautions if you live in a area that is prone to flooding.

March 27th Weather Discussion

The high temperature @ KABE on March 26th was 52 degrees.

Pretty much as indicated by Real Weather Services the cold air would gradually work its way into the region and would not really be felt until the evening hours of the 26th and into the overnight of the early part of the 27th, where it is now 30 degrees.

So today is going to get off to a cold start,,and the further north you go the colder it will be. Despite sunshine thru the area today temperatures are going to average anywhere from slightly below seasonal to much below seasonal the further north you go.

Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s from PA/NJ south and the lower 40s thru much of NY State, SNE and then north of there temperatures will only get into the 20s and 30s for daytime highs.

Today is also going to be a transitional day. High pressure over the Northeast will begin to move off the coast later tonight and this will help to set up a southerly flow out ahead of another area of low pressure that is currently developing out west.

I will have more details on this low pressure and what you can expect for the latter half of this weekend into the early part of the work week either later today or at this time tomorrow night.

March 26th Weather Discussion

The high temperature on the 25th of March was 67 degrees at KABE…

Today is going to be a much colder day across the region with lingering rain showers and or snowshowers depending on your elevation and where you are located. All this courtesy to a wave of low pressure that started moving thru the region yesterday evening and an associated cold front.

Real Wx Services has been talking  about this system for several days.

Today’s high temperatures are only going to be in the mid to upper 40s from NYC and southwards . 20s to lower 30s over much of Northern New England into Maine. As well as western areas of NY and western PA will be in the 30s.

The lingering rain and snow showers should clear out of the region by about noon time and then skies will begin to clear but the winds will become quite gusty ..perhaps as high as  35-40 mph . So its definitely going to feel much different compared to the weather of the past week or so.

March 25th Daily Weather Discussion

Yesterdays high temperature at KABE was 63 degrees.

Today once again temperature wise is going to be very similar to yesterday with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s in PA and NJ southwards. 50s along the SNE coast and thru the central part of the NE and to the west of there temperatures in the 40s.

Low pressure and associated cold front will be working towards the region and this will spread clouds into the area during the early part of the day and rain into the area by afternoon and evening from west to east.

There also could be some higher elevation snows across the northeast. For more specifics see the post right above this one as it goes into a lot of details!

Updated Map & Thoughts On March 25-27 Rainfall Potential!

Low pressure is currently developing over East Central Oklahoma. Associated with this area of low pressure is a cold front draped to the south of the system. Meanwhile above the great lakes is another area of low pressure with yet another cold front, this cold front is currently positioned across the upper mid west. That area of low pressure will also continue to move on a west to east position which will have the cold front approaching the region on early friday.

The low pressure over Oklahoma will continue to press off to the east northeast and should move off the coast somewhere around the Delmarva region.

Out ahead of this are of low pressure and its associated cold front is warm, mild air. So as this low pressure heads towards the region its going to cause WARM AIR ADVECTION to occur with a southerly flow. Temperatures are going to warm up into the lower 60s once again. This is going to cause rainfall to break out across the region and to be honest I would not be surprised to hear some general thunder and see some lightning.

Now there has been alot of discussion about what is going to happen with the cold front approaching from the north? Will the cold air make it into the region before the precipitation exits the region? Or will the cold air arrive while the precipitation is still in the region?

First I think its important to realize that out of the model quidance from 00z 3/25 that was available at this writing..the only model that is suggesting that the cold air could effect the precipitation is the NAM.  The GFS which was colder and also supporting this same scenario has now come in warmer then what it was previously.

Its also important to remember models and past performance. Yesterday the 24th..the models such as the GFS/NAM were showing high temperatures for yesterday in the 30s at one point behind the front that just came thru recently. Todays high temperature at KABE was 63 degrees. So the models have been overdoing the cold air behind these cold fronts.

Now, this is not to say that the air behind this front will not be colder. But there is a difference between cold enough for snow and colder air.

The other thing to consider is that if there was going to be a rapid drop in temperature behind the front ..I would think we would be seeing something in the way of severe weather Parameters across the region because going from 62 for example to 32 in a 6 hr period would cause some kind of explosive development because of the difference in air masses.

However, we are not seeing that in any of the guidance, and we have not been..at least not across the Northeast region. I think the most realistic approach to take is that the temperatures will gradually drop behind the front and by friday evening into the overnight is when the cold air will be felt and known. By that time , in regards for places like NYC and south precipitation will already be out of the area and skies will have cleared.

Further to the north as the map illustrates there is the chance for that colder air to make it into that part of the region while there is some precipitation around. At the most I think the higher elevations will be looking at is anywhere from a T to 3 inches..Lower elevations i think the temperatures are going to be warm enough to support all rain but it is possible that some areas could see some flakes mixing in.

March 24th Weather Discussion

March 23rd high temperature at KABE was 56 degrees…

Today is essentially going to be a transition day which means we are in between systems. One system moved thru the region over the last two days and is still going to bring some rain and snows into Northern New England with snow mainly in Northwest Maine.

The next system will be moving in on thursday! So today is essentially in between the two systems which will mean clouds will begin to clear out but then by the end of the day they will start to approach the region again. With the departing system over the Northeast region we will have a pretty breezy day and these winds will be out of the WNW which will make it feel even cooler then it actually is.

Day time temperatures will be in the 30s to 40s in Maine and Northern New England and then the 50s to lower 60s from Southern New England and points South. Most of NY state though will be in the 45-50 range with the exception of the SE corner of NY.

Southeast Severe Weather Potential

The following is a special weather statement issued by Real Wx Services on March 24th at 4:10 AM EST. Real Wx Services is issuing a Level 1 Alert for the potential of isolated tornados, damaging winds and small hail for the following locations in the Southeast…

Southeastern Missouri

East Central and Eastern Arkansas

Western Tennessee

Western and Central Mississippi from North to South

CAPE Values 500-1000

Lift index –2 to –4

Lapse Rates 6.5 to 8.0

Shear between 30-40 knots

Trigger cold front advancing from the west with mild air out ahead of it with dew points in the 50s.

All the above is signifying the potential for severe weather across these areas. The time frame for this would be thursday afternoon.

Please be on the look out for any severe weather.

Real Wx Services will continue to monitor the situation and will issue a level 3 alert when severe weather becomes a certainty!

March 24-27th Rainfall Potential

Low pressure currently developing over the southwest is going to move in an east to northeast direction and by thursday 12 Z this low pressure will be over Northeast Oklahoma. This low pressure will be accompanied by a cold front to its south. While at the same time another area of low pressure will be moving along the southern tier of Canada and this also has a cold front draped to its south that will also be approaching the region with colder air behind that particular cold front.

It will be the combination of this wave of low pressure and its attending cold front that will be responsible once again for bringing more rainfall to the region.

Now..the question becomes as the cold front from the North drops down to the south..does the cold front make its way thru before the precipitation is out of the area? or does the high pressure that is pressing in behind this cold front push the precipitation out of the region before the colder air can arrive?

Current thinking is that the precipitation will be out of the region before the colder air can actually bleed into the region with the exception of further to the north where its possible that those areas may end up with some snow falling.  Any snow though should be light as the precipitation is expected to be much lighter further to the north.

Cold front moves thru and colder air filters into the region courtesy of high pressure moving in from the North. However…this should be short lived as the high pressure moves off the coast setting up a southerly flow ahead of the next system.

Flood Warnings In the Northeast

I hope everyone has had a chance to look at all the flood warnings that are located in the Northeast.

As one can plainly see when looking at the image above they are indeed quite numerous and heavy rain continues to fall across these areas as I am writing this.

Real Wx Services began talking about this possibility happening at least 48 hours in advance of the National Weather Service and issued there level 3 alert for flooding at least 24-36 hrs before the National Weather Service issued there flood watches.

This shows as an example of why it is important to get the information out as soon as possible. Real Wx Services goal is to always stay one step ahead of the NWS and lead the way in weather forecasting .

These same locations that are under the gun for flooding were just under the gun a week ago for flooding and once this system was agreed on by all guidance it became clear that flooding in those same areas was going to be an issue. Especially considering rivers were still running high from the prior rainfall and flooding.

So, in the eyes of Real Wx Services there was absolutely no excuse to wait as long as the NWS offices did to put up their flood watches because it was clear well before the event!

We strive to make our forecasts ones that you can trust and depend on and look to on a daily basis. And we are constantly looking for ways to improve weather forecasts 365 days a year!

March 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

March 22nd Daytime high at KABE was 62 degrees

Much as Real Wx Services has been talking about the weather has taken that downhill turn with heavy rain thru out most of yesterday into today occurring across the region.

Today will not be any different weather wise with the chance of rain continuing from PA/NJ south into MD but more concentrated and heavy rains across the NE The one exception to this will be NW Maine where they will see snow falling along with some sleet and possible ZR. Other wise can expect rain and heavy rain across the vast majority of the region.

Temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s from SNE thru NJ and Eastern and central PA and southwards on the central and eastern sides in MD.. Western Locations in the 40s with the exception of NW maine in the 30s…

Level 3 Flood Alert For NNJ to SNE and CNE

Real Weather Service has been mentioning for days the potential of more flooding with this system effecting the area starting today. That concern has risen to a level 3 alert for NNJ into SNE and Central New England where 1 to as much as 3 inches of rain is expected to fall across many of the areas that just got bombarded last week with heavy rains.

We started talking about this about 36 hours ago and talked about the potential to raise to level 3. I am glad that the NWS offices are now finally catching on to this threat.

I do not quite understand the need to wait until the event is on top of the forecasted area to issue the watches. This is one reason why R.W.S makes a difference. A step ahead at all times!

March 22nd Weather Discussion

Another record was set once again on the 21st of this month with a high temperature reaching 74 degrees.

As I was talking about yesterday..all good things must come to an end eventually including the weather. The warm sunny weather of the past week which gave us spring like warmth during the last week of Calendar winter is going to become a thing of the past for a bit.

A cold front will be making its way towards the region and that cold front will usher in some cooler weather compared to the past week of weather.

However..today there will be an area of low pressure making its way NE from the Southwest and this is going to bring rain to the area along with the possibility of some general thunderstorms, although before the storm is over with winds will get somewhat strong with winds in the 30-40 mph range.

If you have been following my discussions on this storm system , you will see we mentioned those rains. Flooding is also another concern especially in the area of the Passaic River where levels are still a little high from last weeks rain event.

Temperatures will generally be in the 40s in NC NY and Northern New England and in the 60s elsewhere for high temperatures…

 

If you are out and about today be sure to keep the umbrella handy as it will be on the wet side.

March 21st SE weather discussion

Not much change in over all thinking from what was posted last night. Rainfall totals could be higher then originally thought because this system has tapped into the GOM more then what was originally thinking. Thunderstorms with severe wind potential still look possible from N Carolina along the coast and south into FL..

Cold front should cross across locations in the SE between 00z and 12 Z Monday or in the over night hours of Sunday. Widespread rain will be out ahead of the front due to the warm air that has been over the region.

Question of whether or not there is going to be enough precipitation left over behind the front to cause any type of precipitation other then rain? While it is possible that the higher elevations could see some snow..at this point and time R.W.S is not seeing any type of accumulations because it appears that majority of the precipitation will have pushed thru ahead of the cold front leaving relatively light if any precipitation left behind the system

If anything should change with the above ..Real Wx Services will updated on the above if it becomes warranted.

March 21st Rain Fall Potential Ne/Mid Atlantic

Low pressure developing over the southeast is going to move to near eastern Tennessee by 00z Monday. By 00z Tuesday low pressure will be near SW PA and it will then move NE to off the coast East of Maine by 00z Wednesday.

A cold front from the north is dropping down thru the region tonight and should basically stall across the region and become stationary. Then this same front will begin to press back off to the north late sunday into early Monday!

Level 2 flood alert remains in place for the Passaic River.  1-2 inches of rain is only going to serve to antagonize te flooding from the prior event. So if you live along those areas you might want to take precautions.

Winds should not be as strong with this system as the prior system but there could still be wind gusts to 30-40 MPH along the coast . This could make the surf on the rough side once again.

Soil is still pretty saturated in alot of areas so Real Wx Services is going to at this point and time put the rest of the region of the 1-2 inches of rain on a level 1 for flooding potential, We will take the next 24 hrs and update this statement later tonight around this same time and then make the determination if Level 3 is necessary for the Passaic River territory and if a higher level will be needed in the rest of the 1-2 inch region.

Real Wx Services is expecting this to be a primarily rain event though early on there could be some higher elevation snows mainly in NNY, Northern NH and N VT into Maine (Northern) ..

Stay tuned for further updates on this situation

March 21st Weather Discussion

March 20th High temperature at KABE was 72 degrees..

 

Unfortunately all good things must eventually come to an end and with the weather that holds to be true as well. The beautiful spring like weather of the past week is about to become a thing of the distant past. With a cold front advancing towards the region clouds are going to be on the increase and there increases the chance of showers across the northern and western parts of the region with some higher elevation snows also possible early today into the afternoon and evening basically the best chances of that is NNY into Northern Areas of NH & VT into Maine. Otherwise the threat of showers will be increasing across the rest of the region. The main bulk of the precipitation will however hold off until Monday!

Temperature wise across the region will be in the 60s to lower 70s thru out most of PA and south. Upper 50s into SNE and 40s to the north of there except over the higher elevations where it will be somewhat cooler.

So from PA and points south this will be the last day for the mild temperatures before the inclement weather moves in and temperatures start to slide…

March 20th Daily Weather Discussion

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
524 PM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ALLENTOWN PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS TIED AT ALLENTOWN PA
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 70 SET IN 1986.

 

The above record was set at KABE for the 19th of August. We been talking for several days about the beautiful spring like weather that would be across the region out ahead of the cold front . Today , once again, will be no exception with mostly sunny skies across the majority of the region,

Clouds will be on the increase in areas along the western edge of the Northeast and there is an outside chance of some showers in that area. There the highs will also be cooler with highs only in the 40s.  Thru interior NY they will be in the 60s and as well as SNE in the 60s into the state of Maine along the coast. Further to the south into PA and NJ…Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with highs near 70 and possible lower 70s.

So for the most part another beautiful spring like day is on tap across the vast majority of the region. However, be forwarned that the weather will start to go downhill in the latter part of the weekend!

Mid Atlantic & Northeast Rainfall March 20-23rd

Low pressure is currently developing over the south central United states and will continue to push off to the east south east and form a surface low over Arkansas. This will be a slow moving system with a cold front extending south and another cold front extending northeast to a low pressure in southeast Canada. This frontal boundary looks to settle and become stationary northeast to Southwest thru PA.

This area of low pressure should be across eastern Kentucky by monday morning. From there this low pressure will generally move east north east and off the SNJ Coast before moving ENE along the Northeast coast.

This low pressure and its associated frontal system will bring rainfall once again across the region. There is some concern at Real Wx Services with the movement of the system and the heaviest rains falling over regions that are still not recovered from the last system that brought flooding to the region. Real Wx Services feels that there is still enough time to monitor the situation before feeling the need to issue any level alerts for flooding. So stay tuned for further updates if they become necessary.

Severe weather parameters at this point are not all that impressive with poor lapse rates and Cape levels. And with the rain will create a stable atmosphere as far as severe weather.



Real Wx Services is monitoring the possibility of precipitation changing to snow across locations like Maine. Any snowfall potential would be across the higher elevations as this will be a primarily rain system. However..there is a possibility that as colder air comes in behind the front that there could be some snow in the highest elevations . So stay tuned for more on this potential.

March 19th Southeast Weather Outlook

Low pressure is currently developing over the south central United states and will continue to push off to the east south east and form a surface low over Arkansas. This will be a slow moving system with a cold front extending south that will cross the region sunday evening.

This area of low pressure should be across eastern Kentucky by monday morning. From there this low pressure will generally move east north east and off the SNJ Coast before moving ENE along the Northeast coast.

This low pressure and its associated frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms across the region which will result in widespread rain totals of .50-1.25 inches.

Severe weather parameters at this point are not all that impressive with poor lapse rates and Cape levels. And with the rain will create a stable atmosphere as far as severe weather.

So at this point and time with marginal conditions i think the best chances for anything severe would be along the coast of the carolinas extending into Florida. Potential strong gusty winds would be the most likely aspect of severe weather.

Any areas that do experience thunderstorms can end up with isolated higher rain totals.

Real Wx Services is not expecting any snowfall accumulations across the higher elevations as this will be a primarily rain system. However..there is a possibility that as colder air comes in behind the front that there could be some snowflakes in the highest elevations but pretty much feel that by that time this were to occur that the precipitation will be already thru the region.

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March 19th SE Weather Discussion

Latest models continue to be in agreement with low pressure developing over the southern states around Arkansas and then slowly moving off to the north and the east.  By about 72 hours from now this low pressure should be over western Kentucky.  From there it will continue to move Northeast thru Virginia  and then NE from there off the coast of Southern New Jersey. As this low pressure moves across the southland it will drag a cold front across the region. Timing of this cold front looks to be between Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.

The air out ahead of this front is going to be on the warm side with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Showers will break out ahead and along the frontal passage in association with the area of low pressure.

At this point and time it appears that the heaviest of rains is going to be across VA into NC into Northern SC and GA where as much as an inch of rain could fall. Also included in this would be eastern Tennessee.  South of there looks like maximum amounts would be around .50-.75 until once in Florida where a potential squall line could drop over an inch of rain.

With the passage of the front temperatures are going to drop ..but not as significantly as the GFS model was once portraying to happen. Temperatures should drop by a good 10 degrees for day time highs after this front passes thru.

At this time Real Weather Services is not going to issue anything in regards to severe weather. This really can not be determined at this point and time because the severe parameters are pretty much inconclusive. I suspect there will be some general thunderstorms and any areas that do see these will also experience isolated heavier rain totals. 

Testing The T Shirts! Chance to Win A Free T Shirt!

First 4 X Large T Shirts. These are sample T Shirts just to see how the company makes them. Once they are in my possession ..these four will be provided to four members of Real Wx Services but the T Shirts coming towards 2010 will be different from these!

Just posting this to show that the products are being tested.... If you are good at a design and draw a design and send me a copy of that design to use on T Shirts ..You will earn yourself a free tshirt.

Send any sample designs to theweathergod2010@yahoo.com and if your design is chosen then you will receive a Free T Shirt!

March 19th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature at KABE for March 18th was 67 degrees....

As spring continues to spread its glorious sunshine and warmth across the region ..Today will be no exception to that same type of scenario. Matter of fact, today could be even warmer then yesterday. With full sunshine and a southerly flow out ahead of an approaching area of low pressure and its attending cold front..temperatures may top out into the lower 70s in some of the region across southern PA and into east central Pa.
Other wise temperatures are going to once again be in the 60s across the region . The only exception to this once again will be in the state of Maine where temperatures will be in the 50s and some light scattered showers could be possible...

Unfortunately all good things must come to an end and that will be the result of the warmer then normal temperature but we still have a few nice days ahead of this happening.

March 18th SE Weather Edition

Models are starting to come into better agreement with the next system across the Southeast. 00z GFS is slightly faster then the 00z ECM with bringing rainfall into the southeast. GFS brings rainfall into the Southeast between Sunday 6 Z and 12 Z while the ECM does not start to bring precipitation into the SE till between 12 Z and 18 Z with the more steady precipitation over the areas by the overnight period on sunday.
Another major difference with the ECM tonight is that it is not as cold as it was at 12 Z behind the cold front. So with less of a difference with the air mass ..instability might not be as strong and this could cut down on the severe weather potential. However..this is something that we will continue to keep an eye on as we are still a few days out. ECM moves the rainfall out of the southeast by late monday evening..
It appears that with the flow being southwest out ahead of the front that temperatures ahead of the front will range anywhere from 60-65 across the western areas to 65-75 across the eastern areas.
Real Weather Services at this point and time is thinking that this will be an all rain event with temperatures so warm out ahead of the front and behind the front the temperatures are not really cold enough to support anything frozen.
Its possible that the higher elevations may still see some flakes flying in the sky but Real Weather Services does not anticipate any accumulations...

March 18th Daily Weather Discussion

March 18th Weather Discussion

March 17th High Temperature @ KABE was 65 degrees..

Beautiful spring like weather continues despite the fact that the calender says that we are still in winter! Today is going to be no exception to the past two days and is going to be another sunny day across the region with brilliant sunshine.
Temperatures again are going to be in the 60s with the exception of Northern New England where temperatures will be in the 50s.

March 17th Southeast Weather Edition

Currently there is a low pressure system that is effecting parts of the southeast from Louisiana with some light to moderate rainfall. This should continue to press off to the east over the next 12 hours or so but not without leaving some moderate rains across parts of the SE. Mainly Florida and Southern GA looks to obtain the heaviest amounts from .25-.50 in florida and as much as .75 in Southern GA...

After this area of low pressure moves out of the region we will be looking at clearing skies across the area with warmer temperatures starting to return to the area.
Cold front still looks to be on track which should start to approach the area on late Saturday night or early sunday bringing with it rains & the potential for thunderstorms as well. Some of these storms could be severe and that is something that Real Wx Services will be keeping an eye on!
If any severe storms become likely we will let you know the areas that could be effected by these storms and also what the most likely threat from these storms will be.
Best chances of severe thunderstorms would be Sunday 18 Z to Monday 00z..and rainfall at this point and time looks to be generally light to moderate ..lighter across the eastern Southeast to more moderate the more west you go . However, Real Wx Service recognizes that any potential thunderstorms would create isolated higher rainfall totals but it is too early to pin point this at this point and time..
Temperatures out ahead of this cold front still look to be in the 60s to 70s with some locations possibly touching 80 degrees!

March 17th Weather Discussion

March 17th Weather Discussion

3/16/2010 High temperature at KABE was 64 degrees

Say its not so!

To find out what that means you will have to keep an eye on these daily discussions. Today is going to be a beautiful and gorgeous day across the area with full sunshine that is going to warm things up! After the rain that has occurred the past few days (minus yesterday) a full day of sunshine is going to feel nice and almost feel summer like.

Temperatures across the region are going to be in the 60s with the exception of Northern New England where temps will be in the 50s. Either way you slice it and dice it ..this is one day in the start of a few that are going to make you regretting what is coming next week!

Brooklyn Belt Parkway Storm March 13 2010..

Real Wx Services talked about Major Flooding problems from this system well in advance of the NWS offices across the region and as the above video clearly shows the concern was clearly needed. As always, readers can depend on Real Wx Services to get the word out on any potential danger in reference to weather before the NWS.

Whats Next For The Southeast?

Real Wx Services is once again going to start covering the weather across the southeast for the spring and summer season with hopes of having a person from the area to forecast for the region by winter of 2010-11.

Meanwhile...what is next in store for the southeast part of the country? I have been reading alot of different "interpretations" if I may allude to them as that from some looking at the GFS model and mis interpreting the data that it shows.

Over the next week the weather is going to be pretty tranquil across the southeast. There may be a low pressure which skirts along the southeast that could bring some light rains early this week but otherwise the weather should be pretty spring like with temperatures generally in the 50s and 60s but then moderating by the end of the week with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. These temperatures look to moderate even more with some locales on Saturday possibly approaching near 80 degrees.

However..this is all out ahead of an area of low pressure that will be developing over the south central states that will then head up towards the Great lakes and this will also be accompanied by a cold front crossing the region sunday into monday! Its a little too early to say but severe weather could be possible in the southeast if temperatures actually do make into the 70s to near 80 ..the air coming behind this front is actually going to be colder air..more then likely dropping temperatures back down into the 50s.
The severe weather aspect is something that Real Wx Services will keep an eye on thru the rest of this week and if it becomes apparent that severe weather will be happening...we will let you know ahead of time.

March 16th Daily Weather Discussion

March 16th

Spring Will be Blossoming this week!

Today will start off cloudy and breezy with the potential in the early morning hours 2 AM-7 AM for some scattered light mist/showers . However by the afternoon clouds should start to break and allow for sun to shine across majority of the region. While temperatures will also be on the warmer side today it will be just the start of the temperatures climbing. This week R.W.S. sees potential with flirting with the 70 degree mark before the week is over.
For today though the temperatures are going to rebound into the 50s for the most part with the exception of the higher elevations..where there could still be 30s and 40s.

High temperature on the 15th At KABE was 46 degrees

3/15/10 Daily Weather Discussion

Now that winter is over and there is more time in between storms I am going to once again start this daily weather discussion. I should be able to keep this updated now on a daily basis.

Brief Winter Recap:

Moderate to strong el nino in place which resulted in 56.7 inches of snow for the season in Allentown Pa. This was well above normal for the winter season and was a winter that satisfied the snow lovers of the mid atlantic!


Now here at R.W.S we have now moved into spring time and our focus has shifted to heavy rains & thunderstorms, potential hurricanes & potential tornados.

From the most recent system that has delivered rain across the region we have had slightly over 2 inches of rain. Approximately 2.23 total inches... temperatures have been quite mild keeping the precipitation all rain across the area and any precipitation that falls in the Allentown area for the duration of this event should remain all rain...

The high temperature at KABE was 51 degrees for 3/14/10

Summary of the weather the past 24 + hours has been windy and wet. Summary of the weather for the next 24 hours is a continuation of the same type of weather. Possible rain and breezy conditions though the winds have tapered drastically from what they were.
So for today a continuation of rain is possible. However...I do not think the whole day will be wet. i think that from extreme eastern PA into SE PA into NJ south into eastern MD/DE have the best chance for rainfall and as you head further into the Northeast ...there will be rain there as well.

Temperatures across the area are generally going to be in the 40s with 30s in the higher elevations of the northeast where it may be possible to pick up some snow in the early morning hours..

So if you are out and about today you might want to keep an umbrella handy!

Even More To Come This Year To R.W.S

In addition to the coverage in Canada..Real Wx Services will also be including coverage on the West Coast and Pacific Northwest before the winter of 2010 begins! All part of the expansion plans.

Also in the works is potential international coverage coming from South America!

New Branch Coming Soon!

Real Wx Services will soon be introducing new coverage territory! We would like to get this up and running in time for summer but if not it will be coming in time for winter 2010. We will be introducing:
R.W.S In Canada...

We will have one or two individuals that are familiar with Canadian Climatology and will provide the weather for that region with the same accuracy you have come to expect from USA coverage. Stay tuned for further details as the plans come together!

Level 3 For Flooding Concerns Continued

No change to the previous thoughts!

Level 3 Ruh Roh issued for flooding potential across parts of the region.

Areas effected: WV (due to snowpack) all of PA, All of NJ, all of DE, SE NY including NYC, and Southern New England.

Level 3 is issued when there is consensus on a major storm to effect the region.

A strong upper level low over the midwest will continue to move slowly to the east. As it does it will be sending impulses of energy across the region that will produce rainfall across the region. The heaviest rain appears to be from late in the evening on friday into early morning sunday hours.
This system has the potential to drop a very heavy amount of QPF across parts of the region with 3-5 inches and some locally higher amounts possible.
In the higher elevations of the Northeast this storm could produce a few inches on the backside of the system but anything that falls will have a hard time accumulating due to all the rain that has fallen before hand.

At this point and time Real Wx Services is not expecting any severe weather with this system as Severe Weather Parameters are either quite low or not even in existence for the area. One exception to this could be in the carolinas where some severe potential may be achieved.
At this point and time Real Wx Services is not anticipating any strong winds from this system. We are not anticipating a tightly wound up deepening system but rather a system that is only in the 990-999 mb range and without any RI ..winds will be out of the east at about 10-15 MPH, perhaps as high as 20 MPH at the height of the heaviest rains.

Real Wx Services does recommend that if you have any snow pack around the base of your house and you live in a area that normally floods, to be on the safest side we would suggest removing that snow pack from those areas.

Flooding in poor drainage areas will also be a concern if these heavy rains indeed materialize and this could cause flooding of roads and as always do not drive thru any of these flooded roadways.

Mid Atlantic/Northeast Flooding Rain Event March 12-15th 2010

Level 3 Ruh Roh issued for flooding potential across parts of the region.

Areas effected: WV (due to snowpack) all of PA, All of NJ, all of DE, SE NY including NYC, and Southern New England.

Level 3 is issued when there is consensus on a major storm to effect the region.

A strong upper level low over the midwest will continue to move slowly to the east. As it does it will be sending impulses of energy across the region that will produce rainfall across the region. The heaviest rain appears to be from late in the evening on friday into early morning sunday hours.
This system has the potential to drop a very heavy amount of QPF across parts of the region with 3-5 inches and some locally higher amounts possible.
In the higher elevations of the Northeast this storm could produce a few inches on the backside of the system but anything that falls will have a hard time accumulating due to all the rain that has fallen before hand.

At this point and time Real Wx Services is not expecting any severe weather with this system as Severe Weather Parameters are either quite low or not even in existence for the area.
At this point and time Real Wx Services is not anticipating any strong winds from this system. We are not anticipating a tightly wound up deepening system but rather a system that is only in the 990-999 mb range and without any RI ..winds will be out of the east at about 10-15 MPH at the height of the heaviest rains.

Real Wx Services does recommend that if you have any snow pack around the base of your house and you live in a area that normally floods, to be on the safest side we would suggest removing that snow pack from those areas.

Flooding in poor drainage areas will also be a concern if these heavy rains indeed materialize and this could cause flooding of roads and as always do not drive thru any of these flooded roadways.

Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy At a 30 yr low!

The southern Hemisphere ACE is also on the low side.. and this usually correlates to the Northern Hemisphere ACE. So when i noticed this at a 30 yr low i wrote to Ryan Maue to find out what his thoughts were in regards to the low ACE and the 2010 season coming up...
His response...
With the SH 2009-2010 season being well below normal for unknown reasons to me, it would be a safe bet to assume that the North Atlantic ACE will also be below normal.

If you are not familiar with ACE it is defined as the following:

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six-hour period. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season

Reference: Bell, Gerald D., Halpert, Michael S., Schnell, Russell C., Higgins, R. Wayne, Lawrimore, Jay, Kousky, Vernon E., Tinker, Richard, Thiaw, Wasila, Chelliah, Muthuvel, Artusa, Anthony. Climate Assessment for 1999. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2000 81: 1328-1328

Winter 2009-2010 Verification

12 out of 48 states ended up being incorrect with the final winter forecast that was issued. I let the readers decide on the verification grade..
Here at Real Wx Services we are quite pleased with the end results and this winter will be remembered as a historical winter for snowfall in the mid atlantic states. Total seasonal snowfall at KABE was 56.7 inches which is about 400 % above normal!

Real Wx Services Looking For You!

If you are a weather enthusiast and have knowledge in Meteorology then we may have an offer for you!

Real Weather Services currently covers the Mid Atlantic & the Northeast due to limit in staffing size. Real Wx Services wants to change this and is looking to branch out to cover the whole United States of America. This means the following:

Real Wx Services needs a person to cover the Southeast!
Real Wx Services needs a person to cover the Midwest, Plains States...
Real Wx Services needs a person to cover the Southwest
Real Wx Services needs a person to cover the West and Pacific Northwest!

To qualify you must either have an account or create an account at accuweather forums! In addition, must have a passion for the weather and be able to read & analyze weather models such as the GFS,ECM,GGEM,UKMET & NAM. Absolutely no wishcasting will be tolerated. Prefer the individuals interested to be 18 & older.

If you are interested in either of these locations..drop me an email with your name. yahoo messenger ID and let me know what region you are interested in and what background/experience you have.

Email address is theweathergod2010@yahoo.com

Look forward to hearing from you!

Real Wx Services Plans & Moving Forward!

Just a little update to the readers of where Real Wx Services is heading! Over the summer time we are expecting traffic to the blog to increase as more weather enthusiasts are becoming aware of R.W.S . To help this goal be achieved ..Real Wx Services has ordered 250 business cards which will be going in prime targeted business locations.

Next up on the horizon will be Real Wx Service T Shirts which the plan is to have available sometime during the winter of 2010. These shirts will be quality material that are created at a discounted well known, established marketing company!

This is just the beginning! Stay tuned!

Flooding & Heavy Rains On The Way! March 11th 15th 2010

Low pressure currently over the Midwest is expected to stay relatively stationary thru the weekend. However.. embedded Shortwaves are going to rotate around the main area of low pressure and move across the region. This is going to result in heavy rains moving across the region. The heavier rains combined with snowpack further north is going to result in significant flooding potential across the region.
At this point and time Real Weather Services is issuing a Level 2 Alert for Heavy rains to effect the area. At this point and time it appears the hardest hit areas for rain will be the same areas that got hardest hit with snowfall this season!

At this point and time ...Real Wx Services is not expecting any thunderstorms as the air out ahead of the system is not much different then the air that will be coming in behind the system. Of course we will continue to monitor the situation, in case, any thunderstorms could occur.
At this point and time..Real Wx Services is not anticipating any snowfall except for potential across the higher elevations of the Northeast. However..even in those locations dominant precipitation type should be rain with just some backend snow showers possible across the higher elevations in the NE...
Stay Tuned for the latest information on the Northeast Flooding Potential!

With the expectation of the EL Nino continuing thru the summer..Once again looking towards a cooler summer for the first half...which would be followed by a warmer second half.. Also looking for wetter then normal precipitation wise from the Southeast into the Mid Atlantic and SNE areas..

2010 Preliminary Hurricane Outlook

 Real Wx Services has started to look into the 2010 Hurricane Season and after discussion with Carlos whom is my major partner in R.W.S , We have decided that with the likely hood of having an El Nino around in some shape or format this summer this would lead to much lower tropical action. 

EL Ninos tend to create alot of dry air and also presents alot of shear across the Atlantic ocean. Also in El Nino the MJO has a more difficult time making it to this side of the Atlantic and when it does it is in shorter durations.

The area circled in red is what we generally expect to be the breeding ground for any storms that form and this once again would put the developing storms closer to the east coast so with that in mind we have any where from Florida up along the eastern seaboard as the areas that would be under the influence of any tropical storms or hurricanes that would form.

At this point and time the current thinking is leaning on the lower side of the spectrum with a total of 5-10 named storms  with 3 of them becoming major hurricanes. 

Again this is a preliminary outlook and will be fine tuned as we get closer to Hurricane season.

Winter 2010-11 Outlook Released

Unless this winter of 2009-2010 ends up offering more winter storms that would create snow across the region this will generally be the last post on this particular blog and R.W.S will be switching over to the Spring/Summer Blog. 

So with that in mind this final post will deal with the next winter that will be approaching...

With the winter 2009-2010 coming to a close and probably one of the greatest winters for certain areas that they will remember for a long time to come.. Real Wx Services has turned there attention to Winter 2010-2011. With Real Wx Services there really is no break or rest in between as just before its ready to swing to a Spring Transition...Real Wx Services takes it a step above and beyond in the sake of trying to stay one step ahead and bring more accuracy to longer range forecasting.

The research I have done has led me to believe that we are going to be in another El nino next winter with the strength of Moderate to perhaps strong attainable.

We have discovered that a moderate to stronger El Nino in an overall cold PDO phase actually worked quite well for the mid atlantic area & my research is indicating that next year winter should be no different with similar results. This results in good news for the areas that had a record setting winter this current winter season and results in some not so good news for the Northern New England regions...

Weak El Ninos generally serve the New England region better then moderate el ninos but as we have learned all El Ninos are not typical either.

I used this chart above  last year...

Just to give a general idea for the KPHL region...

As normal I am not going to reveal the inner workings of how i come about to the conclusions that I do.
First will be temperature maps for Dec-Feb . I decided this year to do only those months as that is true Met Winter..

Look for further information as we get a little closer in time..Such as specifics for storm tracks etc..

Update on March 2nd-4th Storm System

I been pretty firm with the coastal basically staying south and east enough to not really effect the area. However..I think that there could be some rain/snow wintry mix to snow type scenario mainly associated with a mid level disturbance that may leave anywhere from a Trace to 2 inches across the region ..mainly dependent upon surface temps because with the coastal staying south and east of the region you will not have thermodynamics to work on at this point and time...
SNJ & LI & Cape Cod may be able to get under the western extent influence of this coastal and hence the potential for up to 3 inches there.
The majority of the systems snow will be to the SE over parts of VA into the Carolinas ..where here they will also start off as a rain/wintry mix but as 850s crash and temps crash and dynamics begin to take over i think some light to moderate accumulations are possible there.

Again, the system currently over the NE while it does start to lift out of the way it does not do so fast enough which does not allow heights to raise across the east coast. So we are mainly left with a system that will get to about CAPE Hatteras and begin to make its ENE movement from there...