Guidance is pretty much in agreement on an upper level ridge building into the area. This will start to actually head towards the region today but we will not feel its full effects until friday-Sunday. At this point and time temperatures are going to be in the 70s and maybe even make a push into the 80s. One caveat to this maybe a southeasterly flow around the Long Island area which could help to stunt the warm up in that part of the region.
A weak cold front should cross the area on or around monday of next week but at this point and time it looks like it will be a dry frontal passage for the most part with just a slight knockback on the temperatures. However..its after this in the wednesday to friday time frame that I am referencing. There are some timing issues with the models with the GFS being slightly more progressive and the ECM delaying by about 24-48 hrs on what appears to be a much stronger cold frontal passage.
Out ahead of this front the ECM warms things up again after the slight knockback on Monday.. You can see that in these images..
You can see the upper level ridge built in across the region that would be resulting once again in some warmer temperatures probably in the 70’s and maybe some 80s as well.
You can also see the cool down with the low pressure that appears to go into the lakes and then Canada and the passage of the cold front
As mentioned the GFS shows the same type of scenario but it would be a earlier time frame then what the ECM is showing.
Here at Real Wx Services we like to try and stay one step ahead at all points and times.
This is not a forecast saying to get ready for severe weather but if the model guidance is correct it could be an opportunity for the potential of severe weather to occur.
Real Wx Services will continue to monitor the situation and will let you know if indeed you can expect severe weather to happen in your region!
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