Real Wx Services has started to look into the 2010 Hurricane Season and after discussion with Carlos whom is my major partner in R.W.S , We have decided that with the likely hood of having an El Nino around in some shape or format this summer this would lead to much lower tropical action.
EL Ninos tend to create alot of dry air and also presents alot of shear across the Atlantic ocean. Also in El Nino the MJO has a more difficult time making it to this side of the Atlantic and when it does it is in shorter durations.
The area circled in red is what we generally expect to be the breeding ground for any storms that form and this once again would put the developing storms closer to the east coast so with that in mind we have any where from Florida up along the eastern seaboard as the areas that would be under the influence of any tropical storms or hurricanes that would form.
At this point and time the current thinking is leaning on the lower side of the spectrum with a total of 5-10 named storms with 3 of them becoming major hurricanes.
Again this is a preliminary outlook and will be fine tuned as we get closer to Hurricane season.
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