Latest models continue to be in agreement with low pressure developing over the southern states around Arkansas and then slowly moving off to the north and the east. By about 72 hours from now this low pressure should be over western Kentucky. From there it will continue to move Northeast thru Virginia and then NE from there off the coast of Southern New Jersey. As this low pressure moves across the southland it will drag a cold front across the region. Timing of this cold front looks to be between Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.
The air out ahead of this front is going to be on the warm side with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Showers will break out ahead and along the frontal passage in association with the area of low pressure.
At this point and time it appears that the heaviest of rains is going to be across VA into NC into Northern SC and GA where as much as an inch of rain could fall. Also included in this would be eastern Tennessee. South of there looks like maximum amounts would be around .50-.75 until once in Florida where a potential squall line could drop over an inch of rain.
With the passage of the front temperatures are going to drop ..but not as significantly as the GFS model was once portraying to happen. Temperatures should drop by a good 10 degrees for day time highs after this front passes thru.
At this time Real Weather Services is not going to issue anything in regards to severe weather. This really can not be determined at this point and time because the severe parameters are pretty much inconclusive. I suspect there will be some general thunderstorms and any areas that do see these will also experience isolated heavier rain totals.
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