We apologize for the late timing on this but we are in the process of moving our headquarters..However we did not want to go without issuing an outlook. The front you see draped across the southeast it will be to the south side of this front where we will have iur severe weather chances occur today.
Radar shows at the present time we have one severe cell that is in Oklahoma.. This piece of energy is moving East Southeast so that means that the rains and storms will also be moving east southeast . The warm front will start to lift northwards introducing the chance of rain further North while a cold front works its way southeast (energy represented on radar associated with that cold front)..it will be this front that will serve as the focus for severe weather..South of the warm front ... in advance of the cold front..
The main threats with this system look to be heavy rain with any of the severe cells, damaging winds and large hail.
The rest of the overnight period until 12 Z we could continue to see some more severe in OK as this was one of the regions highlighted yesterday with the better parameters..
Because the cold front will be crossing between 6 Z and 12 Z we are not expecting any severe into North Central TX in the remaining overnight hours though they can expect some rainfall and non severe storms. The cold front will then be thru that region and most action should take place in southern TX to Dallas and then Eastward along the Gulf coast!
We want to start off by explaining the two different colored zones on the map .
1. The Yellow Zone is where we think the best severe potential will occur based on the parameters and the all important moisture return.
2. The Gray zone is where there is no moisture return ..though the area does have decent parameters in place..without moisture ..even with parameters it is difficult to achieve severe weather.
3. The severe threats will be mainly large Hail and winds but a Tornado can not be ruled out especially across Eastern OK and into Eastern Ks.
Now lets look at some images ..first of all lets look at the moisture return off the GFS tonight..
So you can clearly see why we have the Gray zone the way we do despite the severe parameters such as CAPE being favorable.
The other reason that we do not think that region will see severe as well is because the shear is quite low in that region or marginal at best around 30 knots..
As you can see shear is relatively low in that area with around 25-30 knots.
There are two other parameters that are favorable for that area which are the CAPE and the Lifted Index..
And here is the lifted index...
So there is decent lift across the region..however once again there is no moisture so you can have decent parameters but not end up with severe weather.
Now lets look at the parameters that are looked at when it comes to tornado's. Helicity is not an issue across any of the severe region..
However EHI is a slightly different story..
Remember anything above a 1 indicates that super cells are likely and also indicates that there is a potential for Tornado's . The potential for Tornado's would be higher we feel if there was actually more Helicity involved ..so that is a plus. However the region for the potential whirlie twirlies would be eastern OK and eastern KS.
The trigger will be a cold front that will be on the move south ward across the region from the north.
If anything changes we will update this scenario but we are fairly confident with what we have portrayed here.
With Hurricane Season fast approaching us ..we have decided to do a little research into this hurricane season and come out with a outlook for named storms, hurricanes and Major Hurricanes.
One of the first things we look at is the ENSO Status and we see that currently we are in a neutral ENSO status and this looks to be the case with majority of the guidance though there are a few models that take us into an El Nino and a few that take us into a La Nina but the over all clustering of models keeps us in Neutral conditions.
So we take a look back thru the years going back to 1950 to see what those Neutral Seasons looked like to get a rough picture of how many systems form during Neutral years and the # is rather quite low ..between 7 and roughly 11 .. Lets look at the years
1952 Neutral Year result 7 storms
1959 Neutral Year 11 storms
1960 Neutral Year 7 storms
Perhaps an important thing to note in here is that each of the years so far had storms that impacted the east coast.
1961 Neutral Year 11 storms
1962 Neutral Year 5 storms
1966 Neutral Year 11 storms
1967 Neutral Year 8 storms
1978 Neutral year 11 storms
1979 Neutral Year 8 storms
1980 Neutral Year 11 storms
1981 Neutral Year 11 storms
1990 Neutral Year 14 storms
1993 Neutral Year 8 storms
Last but not least is the year 2012 which was also a neutral year and that had an astonishing 19 named systems..
Looking back thru history to 1950 at Neutral years you can see that the main two regions that were under the gun were the GOM region and storms up the eastern seaboard. The other interesting thing we note is that all the neutral years were relatively low on the storm numbers until we got to the year 2012 when we seen a substantial jump.
We think this can be largely contributed to the fact that since 1995 we have been in a positive phase of the AMO.
In the positive phase of the AMO the water temperatures tend to run higher and this adds fuel to the fire when it comes to tropical cyclone formation. You can see the sea surface temperatures here as of the 25th and how along the coast they are running warmer then normal..
Interestingly enough we also find that the Caribbean has already obtained substantial Tropical Cyclone heat potential.
So the things that we see standing out that is since 1995 cyclones have been on the rise as far as quantity but not necessarily quality. We also see that the GOM and the east coast were in play quite frequently so we are thinking that at least another storm along the east coast will occur this Tropical season. We also see things were relatively below average to average up until 2012 but since 95 they have been increasing despite the ENSO and that we feel is AMO related.
So with the AMO in a positive phase..the Atlantic waters warmer then normal.. ENSO status being neutral we think that this year could be a rather active year with 13-16 Named Storms ..which 5-7 would be hurricanes and 3-4 would become Major Hurricanes. We also with looking back at past history think that the East Coast could come into play once again..and the GOM would be the other hot spot. Of course we will also be dealing with the disappointing recurves that effect nothing but the ocean.
All and all looks to be another active season on tap for the 2013 hurricane season..
Stay tuned as we will be covering each and every season and pinpointing where we think the storms will make landfall..
Those of you who follow this blog know that we been talking about the pattern and how we are in a historical time frame for the AO being so negative and usually a - AO has two effects on the weather. It makes the weather colder then normal and allows in tandem with a negative NAO to form what we call atmospheric blocking. When this happens there is confluence across the Northeast.. and this confluence can press south with dry air and as precipitation advances into it ..it has trouble reaching the ground...
As you can see via the current radar it is showing snow falling across a good chunk of PA..
Never the less when you look at observations for the midnight hour you see the following...
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
POMONA CLOUDY 37 27 67 E8 29.67F WCI 31
RIO GRANDE* CLOUDY 37 28 70 E9 29.70R WCI 31
MILLVILLE CLOUDY 37 26 64 CALM 29.71R
WRIGHTSTOWN CLOUDY 36 26 67 NE5 29.67F WCI 32
LAKEHURST CLOUDY 47 27 45 NE5 29.68F
MOUNT HOLLY CLOUDY 37 27 67 CALM 29.69F
TRENTON CLOUDY 37 25 61 SE5 29.69F WCI 33
$$
NJZ001>014-250500-
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SUSSEX CLOUDY 37 22 54 NE7 29.71F WCI 32
MORRISTOWN CLOUDY 41 25 52 CALM 29.71F
NEWARK CLOUDY 41 24 51 CALM 29.72F
TETERBORO CLOUDY 40 27 59 CALM 29.71F
CALDWELL CLOUDY 39 25 57 CALM 29.71F
SOMERVILLE CLOUDY 39 25 57 CALM 29.69F
ALLAIRE* CLOUDY 37 27 65 E5 29.71F WCI 34
$$
PAZ043-044-047-054-055-060>062-066>071-250500-
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
PHILADELPHIA CLOUDY 39 24 55 E6 29.71F WCI 35
NORTH PHILA CLOUDY 37 25 61 E5 29.71F WCI 33
BLUE BELL CLOUDY 37 27 65 E3 29.67F
DOYLESTOWN CLOUDY 36 24 62 CALM 29.68F
POTTSTOWN CLOUDY 38 25 59 CALM 29.70F
LANCASTER CLOUDY 37 25 61 SE3 29.68R
COATESVILLE CLOUDY 36 28 75 CALM 29.70R
READING CLOUDY 40 25 55 SE9 29.67S WCI 34
ALLENTOWN CLOUDY 40 24 53 SE7 29.68F
MOUNT POCONO CLOUDY 32 20 61 E12 29.63F WCI 23
WILKES BARRE CLOUDY 36 21 54 VRB5 29.67F WCI 32
Cloudy skies being reported in locations where you see precipitation on the radar.
Presently we have a primary area of low pressure and the secondary developing as the guidance suggested would... We can see this looking at the pressure falls..
Guidance over the past 24 hours has really cut back on QPF with this storm system.
The GFS at 24 hours above. The NAM which at one point was showing a foot of snow now looks like this..
The RGEM looks like this...
Guidance is in agreement that the heaviest QPF is going to be along the coast of New Jersey.
So what we have done is we have taken a blend of the guidance and used a few factors in addition to this.
Factor #1 Majority of the precipitation is going to be falling during the daylight hours today.. This in combination with lighter intensity (exception along the coast) and the area closer to the primary ...the snowfall will have a hard time accumulating on anything other then the grassy areas. Again ..new Jersey and the area out west are exceptions.
Factor #2 The confluence with the dry air.. This means we are going to lose precipitation to the dry air. It will look like its snowing on radar but when you look out your window you might not see anything ...*again new jersey and the area to the west are the exception cause of heavier intensity..
Factor #3 This storm system is going to be sliding further south and east then what the models were showing previously and with the confluence pressing south moisture will have a difficult time making it North....
So into places like NYC we are only expecting a Trace to an inch or so.
The End Result...
If you are across south central PA into SW PA this will be a decent event but it is a far cry from what the models were suggesting a few days ago and a far cry from the HYPE of some weather outlets that thought just because we had a - AO it would result in a huge storm.
For late March and into spring though this will end up respectable in areas to the east (New Jersey) and areas west..
We are not seeing the severe weather threat as far north as what the SPC was going with in there day 2 outlook. SREF does not agree with that far north and neither does the NAM which we are going to show here..
First of all lets look at the CAPE..
You can see that the greatest CAPE is down along the Gulf of Mexico.
This coincides with the area of greatest Lift as well..As to the north there is virtually no lift in the atmosphere..
The greatest EHI is also down along the Gulf coast with Lousiana being the prime region for EHI at 1 or above along with over into Florida.
Helicity is also a non factor in areas further to the north.
The only severe parameter that is a factor for severe weather in regions further to the north is the shear. However, with all the other parameters being low with little if any CAPE ..there is no fuel to feed the storms.. so further north we think that it will be mainly rains and garden variety type storms so did not include them in the outlook.
Further south into LA we think it is possible that this area could experience some supercells along with tornado potential with the EHI above 1.
It will also be across the southeast where the trigger will be which is a stationary front and this is where the convection should focus along.
Also the temperatures further north will be cooler with only 40s and 50s while along the gulf coast temperatures will be in the 60s and 70 to 80 degree range.
Warm front has already lifted thru the region of TN but will continue to lift north. Low pressure along this front will continue to lift east northeast thru the region. The main action thru out the day yesterday and this early morning has been north of this warm front as the radar will currently show..
However.. there are showers and garden variety storms developing closer to the low pressure area to the west of KY pressing off to the ENE ..
Looking at severe parameters we are not very impressed with the severe weather chances as the only parameter that is really favorable for severe would be the lower level shear..
So shear of 30-40 knots across the region would be favorable for severe weather. The problem at least as far as TN/KY is concerned is that the CAPE is just not all that impressive with about 500 CAPE available. Remember CAPE is like fuel that feeds the atmosphere to help create severe weather..
The greatest CAPE is well to the south of those areas along the gulf coast. This also lines up with the area of greatest lift in the atmosphere..
Which also lines up with the greatest EHI
So as you can see the greatest severe weather parameters from CAPE to LI index to EHI is over the Gulf coast region. Over all as we said we are not to impressed with the severe weather chances but we think that any severe greatest threat would be south of KY and TN with KY and TN experiencing more in the way of heavy rainfall and garden variety thunderstorms. The timing essentially is another factor against severe weather as some showers etc are moving towards the region now. Due to the shear there could be some severe in TN/KY but with the other mitigating factors we see that being only strong gusty winds..along with some possible hail.
If any tornados were to occur we think the greatest chance would be further south of there where the EHI is more supportive of them even though Helicity is not that favorable.
So with all that said above this is the outlook for today!.
