Severe Weather Potential March 30th

We want to start off by explaining the two different colored zones on the map .
1. The Yellow Zone is where we think the best severe potential will occur based on the parameters and the all important moisture return.
2. The Gray zone is where there is no moisture return ..though the area does have decent parameters in place..without moisture ..even with parameters it is difficult to achieve severe weather.
3. The severe threats will be mainly large Hail and winds but a Tornado can not be ruled out especially across Eastern OK and into Eastern Ks.

Now lets look at some images ..first of all lets look at the moisture return off the GFS tonight..

So you can clearly see why we have the Gray zone the way we do despite the severe parameters such as CAPE being favorable. 
The other reason that we do not think that region will see severe as well is because the shear is quite low in that region or marginal at best around 30 knots..

As you can see shear is relatively low in that area with around 25-30 knots. 

There are two other parameters that are favorable for that area which are the CAPE and the Lifted Index..

And here is the lifted index...

So there is decent lift across the region..however once again there is no moisture so you can have decent parameters but not end up with severe weather. 
Now lets look at the parameters that are looked at when it comes to tornado's. Helicity is not an issue across any of the severe region..

However EHI is a slightly different story..

Remember anything above a 1 indicates that super cells are likely and also indicates that there is a potential for Tornado's . The potential for Tornado's would be higher we feel if there was actually more Helicity involved ..so that is a plus. However the region for the potential whirlie twirlies would be eastern OK and eastern KS. 
The trigger will be a cold front that will be on the move south ward across the region from the north. 
If anything changes we will update this scenario but we are fairly confident with what we have portrayed here.