Saturday, February 27, 2010

March 2nd-4th Potential Southern Snow Event



I have broke this down into two different color scenarios. The lighter blue is light snowfall that will be caused by the midlevel center crossing thru the region. This is [b]not[/b] from the coastal but rather the energy that will be coming thru that does not phase with the system until it would be too late. So, those that are reading this do not confuse it with the actual coastal low.
The other shade of blue is from the coastal low itself that will make its way to Hatteras and then slide ENE from there which will probably effect eastern LI and Cape Cod...

Again..this is an early scenario map but confidence is pretty high in these scenarios happening and the way they go about happening and occurring..

Notice

This does not mean i believe that the coastal is coming far enough north to effect the region. I will continue to monitor the situation and see if that changes...

Reason Why Early March System Does Not Come North!



This system circled in yellow is actually starting to become a third system . This system is modeled on the GFS/ECM/ GGEM.... Both the GFS/ECM are very close to blowing this system into a major blizzard for New England.. The GGEM also does the same thing but it moves it out a tad faster then the rest of the guidance. This third system as shown above is basically a system that retrogrades much like this one that just happened.

This system causes lower heights along the east coast and does not allow enough separation between the next S/W...

So for those wanting this to come further north..That system up above needs to head out of dodge faster which would allow the heights to raise along the east coast. Without that happening this then does not have the space needed and will end up going off the cape Hatteras and ENE out to sea...

Friday, February 26, 2010

Need To Make Something Clear!

As most people know who follow this blog.. Real Wx Services will never issue a forecast unless it has model support. By model support that means that it must have consensus with the models in happening. If there is not consensus on the models between operational and or ensembles then Real Wx Services will not forecast a storm to happen across a region. It must be supported by guidance if not it is wishcasting! That is something we do not tolerate! The reason i created R.W.S in the first place. 


For example..today the 12 Z GFS showed a system effecting the NE with a snow event. However..its own ensembles did not agree and neither did any of the other major global models. Real Wx Services will never issue a forecast based on one model and one run. That is called Modelology and not Meteorology! 

Real Wx Services serves a public audience and feels responsible to put across the most accurate information provided by guidance and teleconnections at the current time in question! 

We will not change the way we forecast because that is what makes us different! 

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Level 3 Alert Continues For Feb 25th -28th


Level 3 Alert has been issued for MD/PA/NJ/NYC/LI into the NE with the exception of Cape Cod. Level 3 means a Winter Storm is taking aim on the region and looks to potentially drop a significant amount of snow/sleet or ZR across the region.

Low pressure will develop off the SE tomorrow and will begin to move slowly up the eastern seaboard passing off the Delmarva before moving NW towards NYC . This low pressure as it moves slowly along the eastern seaboard will undergo rapid intensification and be in the 979-982 MB range. This low pressure looks to stall across the area and actually retrograde. Due to the rapid intensification of this low pressure and its strengths winds will also be increasing and wind gusts over 45 mph will not be out of the question. This will cause blowing and drifting of the snow and create Blizzard Conditions during the day on thursday.

This storm has the potential to drop between 1-2 feet of snow across a good portion of the area . At this point and time these numbers may be a little conservative in some areas.  

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate quite rapidly during the day on thursday and Real Weather Services recommends that you do not travel unless you absolutely have to.


Stay tuned to further updates on this developing situation!

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Level 3 in Effect (RYAN)

My First Call for the storm coming up! Blizzard conditions up and down I-95.

Level 3 Alert Starting Feb 24th PM


Level 3 Alert has been issued for MD/PA/NJ/NYC/LI into the NE with the exception of Cape Cod.  Level 3 means a Winter Storm is taking aim on the region and looks to potentially drop a significant amount of snow/sleet or ZR across the region. 

Low pressure will develop off the SE tomorrow and will begin to move slowly up the eastern seaboard passing off the Delmarva before moving NW towards NYC . This low pressure as it moves slowly along the eastern seaboard will undergo rapid intensification and be in the 979-982 MB range. This low pressure looks to stall across the area and actually retrograde. Due to the rapid intensification of this low pressure and its strengths winds will also be increasing and wind gusts over 45 mph will not be out of the question. This will cause blowing and drifting of the snow and create Blizzard Conditions during the day on thursday. 

This storm has the potential to drop between 1-2 feet of snow across a good portion of the area and 6-12 elsewhere. 

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate quite rapidly during the day on thursday and Real Weather Services recommends that you do not travel unless you absolutely have to.

This storm could very easily turn into a blizzard for alot of regions and rate pretty high in the Nesis rating scale! 

Stay tuned to further updates on this developing situation!

Preliminary Scenario for Part 2 Starting the 25th


Now..the one area that I am not sure on yet is the rain area and the mix area paralleling the rain area. But just to give a general perspective of where my thoughts are leaning out this point and time this is what i am seeing.. This would be based on the NAM/GFS/ECM/FIM and the GFS/NAM for thermal profile...


Monday, February 22, 2010

Feb 22nd-25th Winter Storm


A very difficult time period to be forecasting. Low pressure is currently over Western Kentucky. This low should head into Ohio. Meanwhile a secondary will form over the southeast and should track off the delmarva and then continue to move NE but will only move so far and then essentially get blocked with the blocking that is in place.
The air mass that is in place is modified polar air and has become quite stale. With areas still under clear skies for the most part..temperatures should be able to radiate and then once the clouds move in the thinking is that they will climb slowly into the 30s. There should be enough cold air at the surface to allow places to receive a wintry mix..especially later on in the evening and over night hours where temperatures will be at there coldest at the surface. There is the potential in that zone for up to .10 ice. This applies to the mix zone in PA and NJ only, Further to the north it should be primarily cold enough for snow from NE PA and Northwards.

A very complicated system with bust potential quite high!

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Impressive Image!

Analyzing the situation for Feb 22-25th On the GGEM means





Now lets look at and compare the 00z GGEM means to the 12 Z GGEM means

As you can tell i really like the use of these side by side images as they make it easier to compare solutions

As you can see those means are pretty consistent with a colder solution as well...

So once again...its not just the GFS so the SE bias can not be applied...

Neither can any convective feedback issues as there were none mentioned by HPC and if that was the case then the GGEM would have to be suffering from those same feed back issues...


Adding HPC into the equation

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
329 AM EST THU FEB 18 2010

VALID 12Z MON FEB 22 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 25 2010


USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/18 ECMWF AND 00Z/18 GEFS MEAN FOR
THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAY 3...WITH MOSTLY GEFS
MEAN THEREAFTER. THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEM GLOBAL WERE NORTH WITH
THE MAJOR WAVE CROSSING THE EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND ARE NOW SOUTH...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
SOUTH AND ARE NOW NORTH WITH THE SAME FEATURE. THIS FLIP-FLOPPING
ARGUES FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...WHICH THE HEAVY
EMPHASIS ON THE GEFS MEAN AFFORDS THIS PACKAGE. THE BLOCK OVER
THE WEST IS NO CLEARER...WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD MID LEVEL
CORES A BIT LIKE THE SHELL SHUFFLE GAME. HOPEFULLY...THE LIBERAL
USE OF THE MEAN WILL MITIGATE ANY LARGE ERRORS THIS PERIOD.


CISCO

Notice how it is the GFS means that are being used for after 72 hours...this is highly unusual considering Cisco normally leans heavily on the ECM..

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Feb 22-25th Preliminary Thoughts


Real Weather Services early preliminary thoughts. 

Low pressure will begin to develop and organize itself over Southern Arkansas on Sunday evening. This area of low pressure will have no problem with tapping into the Gulf of Mexico so there will be an abundant source of moisture.

This area of low pressure should head  in an ENE direction and be over Kentucky by monday morning early afternoon. 

What happens from this point and time is the main question and what Real Weather Services is looking at. In order to answer this question one must consider the pattern that is and will be in place. Both the major models of the ECM and the GFS are showing an extremely negative NAO ...We also have a very strong negative AO and we also have a strong negative EPO. One teleconnection we are lacking is a positive PNA. These teleconnections would suggest that blocking is in place and quite a strong block at that. 

With these teleconnections & blocking in place this should result in a primary heading from KY towards SW PA . Once this primary senses the block in place..this should cause a handoff to a secondary area of low pressure. This secondary area of low pressure should develop over the VA area and then proceed to move NE off the coast of the Delmarva and then Northeast of there.

If one steps back and looks at the scenario unfolding on the models..One says to themselves..I have seen this before. That is correct. The storm that just dumped 5 inches of snow on NYC  evolved in much the same fashion. Primary headed to SW PA and a secondary developed and then moved NE. 

Now..the difference between last time and this time is that there is going to be a much stronger push of Warm air Advection due to the system being stronger and more moisture laden. This means that places such as MD, SNJ, SE PA around the PHL area should be prepared for a start as a wintry mix but then changing over to very heavy rains. Flooding issues will potentially become a major concern in these areas. NYC also should be concerned about some very heavy rains. Further inland and N & W away from the coast at this point and time would be looking at an all snow event. It is possible that the wintry mix to rain scenario could be further northwest then what is indicated on this map.. however at this point and time with all the above teleconnections in place...we believe inland locations should be primarily snow.

Real Weather Services will continue to update on this potential Winter Storm.


Update on Feb 22-24th 2010


Essentially with the blocking that is in place and the pattern that we are in...This next potential system pretty much looks to make it to just north of the Cape Hatteras area before it would start to pull off to the ENE...If this track were to be the final track then we would be generally looking at some of the same areas that have been hit hard with winter storms...being the target zone once again! 

Stay tuned for further updates on this next potential winter storm & any upgrades to a level 1 Alert!

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

More Info !

Let me add some more info here

ok verbatim everything north and west of a line from just inland southeast Mass to Long Island to Sandy Hook NJ to Philly to BWI to DC to EZF to Roanoke is all snow. The cities of NYC/PHl/Balt/DC may mix briefly but would be 90 percent snow according to euro

liquid totals
DC: 1.9
BWI: 2.2
PHL: 2.4
NYC: 2.0
BOS: 1.5
ROA: 1.0
CHO: 1.3
HGR: 1.5
AVP: 2.4
ALB: 1.4
UNV: 1.75
Mt Vortmax: 2.3

More Info On That Potential Event!

hr 174
990 low over eastern NC, just inside Hatteras.
850 isotherm from Ocean City MD to just southeast of EZF then southeast down into NC just east of the blue ridge.
H5 not cut off yet but starting to deepen over western NC. Trough going negative tilt.
light snow from NYC to Buffalo and everywhere south of there

Heavy snow over all of northern VA and MD and southeast PA

hr 180
H5 low not cut off but extremely negative tilt over Roanoke VA
SLP 982mb just southeast of Ocean City MD or northeast of Norfolk
850 isotherm ACY to Annapolis MD then due south from there
Heavy snow Roanoke VA to State College PA to NYC and everywhere south/east of there to the 850 0 line

hr 186
h5 low now cut off near Richmond VA
SLP 975 over Cape May NJ
850 isotherm Sandy Hook NJ to just southeast of Philly to Dover DE to Ocean City MD
Heavy snow Albany to State College south to Charlottsville VA then east to just north of Richmond with the wraparound. Extremely Heavy snow from Northern NJ, all of eastern PA and into northeastern MD

hr 192
H5 low cut off just east of Ocean City MD
SLP 973 mb just east of Cape May NJ... low moved maybe 30 miles east in the last 6 hours...basically stalled
Low has occluded so the 850 temps have crashed everywhere except cape cod.
Heavy snow everywhere inside a line from Boston to Albany to State College to Hagerstown to DC to Ocean City MD
Extremely heavy snow northern NJ, eastern PA, northeast MD

hr 198
Low drifted about 50 miles east, now about 175 mb east of Cape May
moderate wrap around snows in the deform continue from Ocean City MD to DC to State College to Buffalo NY to Burlington VT east to central Maine
Heavy snows in eastern New England

next 12 hours the low stalls and fills while it basically snows itself out over the mid atlantic and northeast.

Perhaps Another Big Storm?



As this Manitoba Mauler moves across the region in the overnight hours...and continues to effect portions of the Northeast...Real Wx Services has turned their attention to day 7 & day 8...

First image would be  Day 7 and the second image is day 8. 850s are well off the coast day 7 and 700 mb RH is at 100% across the region.

However..the GFS does not have this robust of a scenario on its operational run but it does have a more robust scenario on its ensemble means that is closer to the ECM operational...

So attention turns now to this next potential storm! Stay tuned for further updates on this scenario!

Monday, February 15, 2010

A Few Changes For Today & Tomorrow


Guidance has significantly cut back on QPF and so with that change comes a change to the map as in above.


Level 3 RUH ROH For Feb 15-16 2010


Real Weather Services Level 3 Alert Feb 15-16 time period


Time : 1:30 AM EST

Date: 2/15/2010

Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010

Areas effected : West VA, Western MD, All of PA, Central and Northern NJ & NYC & Southern New England , as well as central and southern NY and Most of New England!

Real Weather Services is continuing a Level 3 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 3 Alert means:

Level 3  Alert : This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be affecting the area...

Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to affect the region mentioned above starting tomorrow evening.  Models have now converged on the track being across VA and off the Delmarva and NE. Ratios should generally be between 15:1-20:1 North and west of I-95 and 10:1-12:1 in the big cities such as NYC and KPHL..

There could be mixing along the extreme southern new england coast but R.W.S feels that it would be very minimal and have little effect on totals. Mixing will occur  potentially in SE NJ and the Delmarva as well there by lowering there totals. 



The system responsible for this outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen and then Northeast up the East Coast

This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture. In most cases with these types of systems the heaviest QPF sets up on the NW side of the 850 mb low passage.

Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 3 Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall, though heavier accumulations in SNE. 

Accumulations look to be on the light to moderate side with this system as it appears that it is going to be a fast moving system. Another factor that may come into play is where the TROWAL sets up..as that also is a pretty good indication of heavier axis of snowfall which generally is to the NW of the trowal. This will come into play over the SNE area which will  cause totals to be slightly higher. .


Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast They do have the tendency to over perform from time to time. Something else to consider. Also will become a bit breezy with this system so there will be blowing and drifting of new snowfall. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Level 2 Alert Be Prepared Feb 15-16 2010


Real Weather Services Level 2 Alert Feb 15-18 time period


Time : 4 AM EST

Date: 2/14/2010

Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010

Areas effected : West VA, Western  MD,  All of PA, Central and Northern NJ & NYC & Southern New England , as well as central and southern NY and Most of New England! 

Real Weather Services is continuing a Level 2 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 2 Alert means:

Level 2 Alert : Be Prepared .. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather

Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to potentially effect the region mentioned above. Models are starting to converge on a winter storm to effect the areas mentioned above.

Real Weather Services feels that at this point and time that the GFS/NAM are too far north with the system.

The system responsible for this potential outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen.

This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture. In most cases with these types of systems the heaviest QPF sets up on the NW side of the 850 mb low passage.

Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 2  Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall is possible, though heavier accumulations in SNE. 

Accumulations look to be on the light to moderate side with this system as it appears that it is going to be a fast moving system. Another factor that may come into play is where the TROWAL sets up..as that also is a pretty good indication of heavier axis of snowfall which generally is to the NW of the trowal. This could come into play over the SNE area which could actually cause totals to be slightly higher. Real Weather Service will keep an eye on this scenario.


Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant.

Any upgrades to a Level 3 if needed will be issued in the next 24 hours. Stay tuned to further updates!

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Level 1 Continues for Feb 15-18th



Real Weather Services Level 1 Alert Feb 15-18 time period


Time : 2 AM EST

Date: 2/13/2010

Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010

Areas effected : West VA,Northern & Western VA, MD, Northern  DE, SE PA, South Central PA, East central PA, NE PA  All of New Jersey & NYC  & Southern New England.

Real Weather Services is continuing  a Level 1 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 1 Alert means:

Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region

Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to potentially effect the region mentioned above. Models are starting to converge on a winter storm to effect the areas mentioned above.

Real Weather Services feels that at this point and time that the GFS/NAM are too far north with the system.  

The system responsible for this potential outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen.

This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture. In most cases with these types of systems the heaviest QPF sets up on the NW side of the 850 mb low passage.  

Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 1 Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall is possible. 

Accumulations look to be on the light side with this system as it appears that it is going to be a fast moving system. Another factor that may come into play is where the TROWEL sets up..as that also is a pretty good indication of heavier axis of snowfall which generally is to the NW of the trowel. This could come into play over the SNE area which could actually cause totals to be slightly higher. Real Weather Service will keep an eye on this scenario.


Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant.

Any upgrades to a Level 2 if needed will be issued in the next 24 hours. Stay tuned to further updates!

Friday, February 12, 2010

Real Weather Services Level 1 Alert Feb 15-18 time period

Time : 1:30 PM EST

Date: 2/12/2010

Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010

Areas effected : West VA,Northern VA, MD, DE, SE PA, South Central PA, East central PA, All of New Jersey  & NYC &  Southern New England.

Real Weather Services is issuing a Level 1 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 1 Alert means:

Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region

Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to potentially effect the region mentioned above. Models are starting to converge on a winter storm to effect the areas mentioned above.

Latest GFS guidance brings Level 3 warning criteria to these effected areas in the range of .50-.75 liquid equivalent from parts of MD NE thru Eastern PA into SNE, and a general .25-.50 across the rest of the region . 

The system responsible for this potential outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen. 

This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as  a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture. 

Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 1 Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall is possible. Some regions may pick up more then 6 inches of snow if the potential plays out the way it is currently expected to.

Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant. 

Any upgrades to a Level 2 if needed will be issued in the next 24 hours. Stay tuned to further updates!

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Manitoba Mauler Feb 15th-18th Time Period


While many people are continuing to dig out from the latest blizzard that has hit the east coast...Mother Nature continues to revolve and provide weather across the Nation. 

At this point and time Real Weather Services is monitoring a Manitoba Mauler which is an alberta clipper like system but has its origins in Manitoba Canada instead of Alberta Canada. 

At this present time model guidance has this system modeled to far south considering that this is a northern stream system with no southern stream interaction or shortwave interaction. 

Real Weather Services feels that the guidance is too far south with the system and will end up taking a track across the southern Tier of Virgina and then off the coast of the Delmarva and then ENE from that point of exit.

This system appears to be a moisture starved system originally...however its expected to intensify somewhat on its journey across southern VA and should tap into some moisture from the Atlantic.

At this point and time it appears that this will be a light snowfall event across MD/WVA/VA/DE/NJ/PA and perhaps some light snow into extreme coastal SNE including NYC. 

We will continue to monitor the latest with this system and update this when it becomes necessary!

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Level 3 RUH ROH Continued!


Real Weather Services Level 3 Alert "Ruh Roh"

Issued: Feb 9th 2010

Time: 1 AM 

Dates Effective: Feb 9-11th

Level of Alert: 3



Real Weather Services has issued a level 3 alert for the following regions:



Maryland

SE PA, Eastern PA, East Central PA , NE PA

All of New Jersey

New York City, Long Island

Southern New England

Another winter storm is on tap for the region. Low pressure will develop across the southern plains and move across the southeast. At the same time another low pressure will be dropping down from the midwest . These two low pressure areas will merge into one and head towards the ohio valley. This area of low pressure then will develop a secondary over the Southeast This area of low pressure will then move Northeast off the coast around the Delmarva and be near the New Jersey coast on wednesday. From there this low pressure will move Northeast over the New England waters.

This storm has the potential to produce significant snowfall along I-95 and to the North and west of I-95. Over the coastal plain there is a possibility that we may mix with sleet at times but this should not effect overall the total accumulations! A significant snowfall is expected in these locations as well.

 

Real Weather Services feels that the highest totals from this system will be Maryland  to South central & East Central PA to NYC  Long Island and and majority of NJ. . .

Stay tuned to Real Weather Services for any updates on this potential winter storm

Monday, February 8, 2010

Level 3 Alert Continues for Feb 9-11th


Real Weather Services Level 3 Alert "Ruh Roh"

Issued: Feb 9th 2010

Time: 3 PM 

Dates Effective: Feb 9-11th

Level of Alert: 3



Real Weather Services has issued a level 3 alert for the following regions:



Maryland (West of I-95)

SE PA, Eastern PA, East Central PA , NE PA

All of New Jersey

New York City, Long Island
Another winter storm is on tap for the region. Low pressure will develop across the southern plains and move across the southeast. At the same time another low pressure will be dropping down from the midwest . These two low pressure areas will merge into one and head towards the ohio valley. This area of low pressure then will develop a secondary over the Southeast This area of low pressure will then move Northeast off the coast around the Delmarva and be near the New Jersey coast on wednesday. From there this low pressure will move Northeast over the New England waters.

This storm has the potential to produce significant snowfall along I-95 and to the North and west of I-95. Over the coastal plain this go around it appears that those regions could be dealing with snow mixing with sleet at times.

Real Weather Services feels that the highest totals from this system will be from east central PA to Southeast PA to central NJ and NYC & Long Island. It is possible that places like Southern New Jersey and Delaware may mix with sleet and rain at times and if so would cut back a little on the QPF..However..at this point Real Weather Services is not quite convinced that this will happen!

Stay tuned to Real Weather Services for any updates on this potential winter storm

Level 3 Ruh Roh For Feb 9-11th 2010


Real Weather Services Level 3 Alert "Ruh Roh"

Issued: Feb 8th 2010

Time: 2 AM 

Dates Effective: Feb 9-11th

Level of Alert: 3



Real Weather Services has issued a level 3 alert for the following regions:



Maryland (West of I-95)

SE PA, Eastern PA, East Central PA , NE PA

All of New Jersey

New York City, Long Island
Another winter storm is on tap for the region. Low pressure will develop across the southern plains and move across the southeast. At the same time another low pressure will be dropping down from the midwest . These two low pressure areas will merge into one and head towards the ohio valley.  This area of low pressure then will develop a secondary over the Southeast This area of low pressure will then move Northeast off the coast around the Delmarva and be near the New Jersey coast on wednesday. From there this low pressure will move Northeast over the New England waters.

This storm has the potential to produce significant snowfall along I-95 and to the North and west of I-95. Over the coastal plain this go around it appears that those regions could be dealing with snow mixing with sleet at times.  

Real Weather Services feels that the highest totals from this system will be from east central PA to Southeast PA to central NJ and NYC & Long Island. It is possible that places like Southern New Jersey and Delaware may mix with sleet and rain at times and if so would cut back a little on the QPF..However..at this point Real Weather Services is not quite convinced that this will happen! 

Stay tuned to Real Weather Services for any updates on this potential winter storm 

Sunday, February 7, 2010

Updated Preliminary Level 2 still in effect!


The following is just based on HPC QPF (earlier yesterday evening)..the fact that they are still using the same blend so figure the QPF amounts will not all that much change. Considering colder temperatures then what the ECM advertises because its still too far north and is the northern outlier..So with that said ...and thinking snow breeds snow ..here is what that map would look like without ratios added in...

Photos From Feb 5th







8 inches total fell in my back yard. Officially at KABE airport 7.7

Saturday, February 6, 2010

Level 2 " Be Prepared!" Feb 9-11th



Real Weather Services Level 2 Alert " Be Prepared"

Issued: Feb 6th 2010

Time: 11 PM 

Dates Effective: Feb 9-11th

Level of Alert: 2


Real Weather Services has issued a level 2 alert for the following regions:

Central & Western Virginia

Maryland (West of I-95)

West Virginia

All of Pennsylvania

Parts of Central Nj & Northern NJ

As well as Southern New England and Cape Cod

Another winter storm is on tap for the region. Low pressure will develop across the southern plains  and move across the southeast. This area of low pressure will then move Northeast off the coast around the Delmarva and  be near the New Jersey coast on wednesday. From there this low pressure will move Northeast over the New England waters.

This storm has the potential to produce significant snowfall along I-95 and to the North and west of I-95. Over the coastal plain this go around it appears that those regions could be dealing with a wintry mix of snow/rain. 

This storm has the potential to produce 6-12 inches of snow or greater with liquid equivalent of 1.00-1.25 across the areas that stay all snow.

Stay tuned to Real Weather Services for any updates on this potential winter storm and any upgrade to Level 3. 

Real Weather Services has issued the above two maps as Preliminary Maps!

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Snow Map (2/5-2/7 Blizzard)

Hello everyone, its Ryan. Mainly been tracking lately, but here is my snow map for all of you to view:

Final Map For 2/5-2/8 Blizzard of 2010

Level 2/Level 3 Feb 5-8th 2010


Time 4 AM

Date: 2/4/10

Dates effected: Feb 5-8th time period

Level 3 Ruh Roh

Level 3 Areas effected.. All of VA but the extreme SE corner..All of WV, all of MD, All of Delaware...All of NJ...All of eastern PA ..all of Southern PA extending west into Southwestern PA.

Also in effect is a Level 2 "On Guard" for NYC Metro area and Extreme SNE. 

Low pressure currently developing over the GOM will continue to build up moisture and slowly start to progress off to the east eventually turning NE and heading to just south of the Delmarva and intensifying rapidly once it reaches the Gulf stream waters. At this point and time the northern stream will phase with the southern stream and cause the system to take on a Negative tilt and this is what will lead to the RI. As this system deepens it will also result in potential for strong winds along the coast. 

Looking at latest radar you start to appreciate the size of this system and the qpf that is currently associated with this system will only become more enhanced once it starts to tap into the atlantic.

Due to the above..Real Weather Services Has issued a Level 3 for the above areas. 

As for the area that remains in a Level 2. Any slight changes in current storm track and projection would cause NYC Metro and NNJ to go into a level 3. 

At the moment guidance is suggesting that the Polar Vortex might keep this from progressing too far north to bring heavier QPF into those regions.

However..signs on the early 6 Z NAM have indicated a northern start of a potential trend and if 6 Z GFS and more importantly 12 Z runs continue this then an upgrade for those areas will be issued.

As has been the case the models have had a tendency to over due the strength and the southward extent of the Polar Vortex and that very well could be the case again this go around. 6 Z NAM indicated less influence from that PV and that is what Real Weather Services will keep an eye on for Level 2 region.

Map issued above still stands as preliminary ..Some adjustments will be made at final map issued during the day later today!

Level 3 Ruh Roh means conditions are favorable and likely across the region.

Stay tuned for any further updates!

Early Preliminary Call For Feb 5-8th!


Subject to change!

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Level 2 : Be Prepared! Feb 5-8th

Level 2 Alert " Be Prepared" 

Time: 6 PM 

Date 2/2/10


Real Weather Services has come up with three different levels in preparation for a Winter Storm System. Those three implementations are as follows but am open to suggestions.


Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region

Level 2 Alert: Be Prepared. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather

Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...


Real Weather Solutions has decided to upgrade from On Guard to Level 2 "Be Prepared" The definition of that can be seen above. 

Level 2 Effects the following Areas : Northern Va,  WV, DC , BWI, all of MD, All of Delaware, All of NJ, All of eastern PA and East Central PA, NE PA, SE PA, NYC Metro Region, SNE...

Models are coming into a consensus on a storm to effect the region starting friday late in the day. Current guidance is showing a storm organizing in the Gulf of Mexico and the Primary riding NE thru the Tennessee Valley and then transferring to a secondary over South Carolina. From there the system should approach Cape Hatteras and hug the coast and then ride the western edge of the Gulf Stream as it moves up the eastern seaboard.

Real weather services feels this storm has the potential to deepen rapidly as it is over the Gulf Stream waters and potentially could get down into the mid 980s MB pressure wise. Due to the strength of this low and its RI ..this could create strong winds as well.

The potential exists for 6 inches or more of snow with some locations seeing along the range of 12 inches N or the PA/MD border. South of that border the potential exists for more then a foot of snow.

If conditions warrant Real Weather Services will issue a Level three Alert! 

Real Weather Service Alert #3 The Answer Is Becoming Clearer!

Real Weather Service Alert #3 

Level: On Guard 

Date: 2/2/10

Time: 1:30 PM


For all those that read and follow my blog ..Real Weather Services has come up with three different levels in preparation for a Winter Storm System. Those three implementations are as follows but am open to suggestions.

Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region

Level 2 Alert: Be Prepared. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather

Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...


So with that said...Real Weather Services is issuing a Level 1 for the following regions.  VA, MD central and eastern PA, NJ, DE  into SNE to include NYC.

Looking at tonights model runs we see a common theme. A more northern track and a more amplified system. 

Lets break this down...

00z GFS...The 00z GFS has come north and now gets a 989 east of the Delmarva region. Some distance off the coast but brings heavier QPF northwards

00z GGEM  brings a 985 mb low pressure to the east of SNJ. Quite a wrapped up low pressure area .

00z NOGAPS brings a 976 MB low pressure to the east of SNJ. I personally thought this might have been a little too exaggerated until I saw the next model

00z ECM brings a 979 MB off to the east of the Delmarva region by about 200 miles.

00z GFS ensemble means essentially support its operational run however are wetter then the GFS operational run.

Real Weather Services has always stated from the beginning of tracking this system that suppression was not going to be an option due to the Polar Vortex being weaker then the previous event.  Real Weather Services has also stated that without a high pressure over NY State and the confluence not being as strong this would also cause the system to become further to the north. 

Real Weather Services also has stated that this storm should track along the western edge of the Gulf Stream and still feels that is the most likely scenario with  climatology taken into consideration.

In Real Weather Services Alert #2 ..it was mentioned that the Big Cities and areas N & W could potentially see a 6 inch + snowstorm. That potential still remains and confidence in that has increased tri fold.

If Level 2 prerequisites come about in the latest model guidance Real Weather Services will issue a Level 2 Alert. Until that time R.W.S will remain on Level 1 Alert. 

Stay Tuned for further updates!

Next update issued after 12 Z model runs!

Monday, February 1, 2010

Early Preliminary Scenario Map For Feb 5-8th 2010


A more phased system may introduce precipitation problems I-95 East

Real Weather Services Alert #2 Repeat or Not is the Question?


Date:2/01/10

Time: 4 PM


Review of the 12 Z Guidance

12 Z GFS  takes the low to a 991 well off the coast of Hatteras

12 Z ECM has come north has a 996 East of Hatteras

12 Z  GFS ensemble means has a 993 off of hatteras but closer to the coast then the op

12 Z ECM ensemble means is NW of the operational ECM

12 Z GGEM has a 985 east of the Delmarva Region

12 Z GGEM means have a 994 east of the delmarva region


The above is a simplified version of the 12 Z model suite. ECM operational brings about .25-.50 to the NY /PA border and about .35 into NYC .. .50-.75 into KPHL ...and about 1.00-1.25 into SNJ.

12 Z GGEM ensembles show about a 1.00 + from east central PA Southwest and also southeast wards.

So what does this all mean at this point and time? 


GGEM has been staying relatively consistent with this event. ECM has trended north with this event. It is the opinion of Real Weather Services that the ECM at this point and time is trending towards the GGEM and what it has been suggesting for its past few runs.

At this point and time the GFS model is considered the outlier model and also is an outlier to its own ensemble means. 

Real Weather Services at this time recognizes the potential for a snowstorm to effect portions of the mid atlantic into the Northeast from VA to Southern New England. 

Real Weather Services feels at this point and time that the potential exists for a significant snowfall in this region.

Differences between this storm and last event is the PV is weaker and not as far south as the last event. This means the confluence across the region is not as strong as the last event so would not keep this as far south.

Blocking is also in place with this storm over Greenland and this suggests a more Northward track. 

At this point and time a track that follows the western edge of the Gulf stream seems most likely. To show the expected track from Real Weather Services see the image above.

This storm should deepen quite rapidly once it hits the waters off of Hatteras and then move NE up the eastern seaboard along that western edge of the Gulf Stream. 

Real Weather Services feels that this storm has the potential to drop 6 plus inches of snow across the region highlighted.

Real Weather services also feels that there is  a potential for a phase to occur which would cause the storm to deepen and become stronger and wrap in more QPF..However..the CAVEAT to this is it would bring mixing issues along the I-95 corridor. 

Stay tuned for further updates...