Real Weather Service Alert #3
Level: On Guard
Date: 2/2/10
Time: 1:30 PM
For all those that read and follow my blog ..Real Weather Services has come up with three different levels in preparation for a Winter Storm System. Those three implementations are as follows but am open to suggestions.
Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region
Level 2 Alert: Be Prepared. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather
Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...
So with that said...Real Weather Services is issuing a Level 1 for the following regions. VA, MD central and eastern PA, NJ, DE into SNE to include NYC.
Looking at tonights model runs we see a common theme. A more northern track and a more amplified system.
Lets break this down...
00z GFS...The 00z GFS has come north and now gets a 989 east of the Delmarva region. Some distance off the coast but brings heavier QPF northwards
00z GGEM brings a 985 mb low pressure to the east of SNJ. Quite a wrapped up low pressure area .
00z NOGAPS brings a 976 MB low pressure to the east of SNJ. I personally thought this might have been a little too exaggerated until I saw the next model
00z ECM brings a 979 MB off to the east of the Delmarva region by about 200 miles.
00z GFS ensemble means essentially support its operational run however are wetter then the GFS operational run.
Real Weather Services has always stated from the beginning of tracking this system that suppression was not going to be an option due to the Polar Vortex being weaker then the previous event. Real Weather Services has also stated that without a high pressure over NY State and the confluence not being as strong this would also cause the system to become further to the north.
Real Weather Services also has stated that this storm should track along the western edge of the Gulf Stream and still feels that is the most likely scenario with climatology taken into consideration.
In Real Weather Services Alert #2 ..it was mentioned that the Big Cities and areas N & W could potentially see a 6 inch + snowstorm. That potential still remains and confidence in that has increased tri fold.
If Level 2 prerequisites come about in the latest model guidance Real Weather Services will issue a Level 2 Alert. Until that time R.W.S will remain on Level 1 Alert.
Stay Tuned for further updates!
Next update issued after 12 Z model runs!
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