Level 3 RUH ROH For Feb 15-16 2010

Real Weather Services Level 3 Alert Feb 15-16 time period


Time : 1:30 AM EST

Date: 2/15/2010

Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010

Areas effected : West VA, Western MD, All of PA, Central and Northern NJ & NYC & Southern New England , as well as central and southern NY and Most of New England!

Real Weather Services is continuing a Level 3 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 3 Alert means:

Level 3  Alert : This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be affecting the area...

Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to affect the region mentioned above starting tomorrow evening.  Models have now converged on the track being across VA and off the Delmarva and NE. Ratios should generally be between 15:1-20:1 North and west of I-95 and 10:1-12:1 in the big cities such as NYC and KPHL..

There could be mixing along the extreme southern new england coast but R.W.S feels that it would be very minimal and have little effect on totals. Mixing will occur  potentially in SE NJ and the Delmarva as well there by lowering there totals. 

The system responsible for this outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen and then Northeast up the East Coast

This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture. In most cases with these types of systems the heaviest QPF sets up on the NW side of the 850 mb low passage.

Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 3 Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall, though heavier accumulations in SNE. 

Accumulations look to be on the light to moderate side with this system as it appears that it is going to be a fast moving system. Another factor that may come into play is where the TROWAL sets up..as that also is a pretty good indication of heavier axis of snowfall which generally is to the NW of the trowal. This will come into play over the SNE area which will  cause totals to be slightly higher. .


Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast They do have the tendency to over perform from time to time. Something else to consider. Also will become a bit breezy with this system so there will be blowing and drifting of new snowfall. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant.