Level 2 Alert Be Prepared Feb 15-16 2010

Real Weather Services Level 2 Alert Feb 15-18 time period


Time : 4 AM EST

Date: 2/14/2010

Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010

Areas effected : West VA, Western  MD,  All of PA, Central and Northern NJ & NYC & Southern New England , as well as central and southern NY and Most of New England! 

Real Weather Services is continuing a Level 2 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 2 Alert means:

Level 2 Alert : Be Prepared .. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather

Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to potentially effect the region mentioned above. Models are starting to converge on a winter storm to effect the areas mentioned above.

Real Weather Services feels that at this point and time that the GFS/NAM are too far north with the system.

The system responsible for this potential outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen.

This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture. In most cases with these types of systems the heaviest QPF sets up on the NW side of the 850 mb low passage.

Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 2  Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall is possible, though heavier accumulations in SNE. 

Accumulations look to be on the light to moderate side with this system as it appears that it is going to be a fast moving system. Another factor that may come into play is where the TROWAL sets up..as that also is a pretty good indication of heavier axis of snowfall which generally is to the NW of the trowal. This could come into play over the SNE area which could actually cause totals to be slightly higher. Real Weather Service will keep an eye on this scenario.


Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant.

Any upgrades to a Level 3 if needed will be issued in the next 24 hours. Stay tuned to further updates!