Real Weather Services Alert #1 Here We Go Again

Here we go again

Date 2/1/2010

Time 1:30 AM

Review of the 00z models 

00z GGEM is showing a coastal hugger essentially with a 982 MB South Of Long Island..

00Z GFS basically showing a weaker wave well off the east coast

00z GFS ensemble means  has a 995 east of hatteras a good distance off the coast. However on the means it is slightly deeper and slightly west compared to 12 Z run

00z ECM is showing a 990 MB ? also east of Hatteras

00z UKMET shows a 981 MB low east of the Delmarva about the same distance as the ECM is off the coast of Hatteras..

So the above is the summary of the 00z models which essentially shows that the storm would be staying to the south of the PA/MD border...

So the million dollar question is the following..

Is this going to be a repeat of the last system that came thru on the 29th which stayed from about the southern tier of PA southwards? 

Real Weather Services feels that it is too soon to know the answer to that question. Lets look at the differences from last time. 

Last event we had a high pressure over NY State and Pa that caused the suppression to occur. We also had some extremely cold air at the surface and also aloft that fought back against the storm and kept that from coming north! This was due to the Polar Vortex being strong.

So what is different this time?

This time we have no high pressure over Northern NY state or PA..Instead we have high pressure extending from North of the lakes in Canada to Se Canada bleeding down into the mid atlantic states. So if its not the high pressure that is keeping this south..then the next question is ..What is keeping this south?

Once again we have a Polar Vortex that is showing its strength. However..as we found out with this past event it was not the Polar Vortex that kept this to the south but the high pressure in tandem. Now what happened last time with the polar vortex that changed starting at about 48 hours out to about 24 hours? It started to become weaker and also further north and this then resulted in a more northern track with the QPF. 

So..being that this once again is beyond 72 hours..chances are pretty likely that once again the polar vortex is being modeled too strong and too far south BUT this time with no high pressure over New York State as this PV weakens this has more potential then the last event to come further north! 

So in summary..what is preventing this at this point and time from coming north? The Polar Vortex? What have models been doing all winter long with Polar Vortex's? Modeling to strong and too far south..What has been the results come closer to the storm with the PV? Weaker and further N. So what could become the potential likely outcome if that once again is the case with no high pressure to the North with strong confluence? A more northern track!

So at this point in time R.W.S feels that anyone from VA on North into SNE is very much in the game for a potential Winter Storm and with some of the guidance suggesting a deep low 981 MB on the UK  and 982 on the GGEM ..it could end up being a very big event for somewhere in that zone!

Stay Tuned for further updates!