Time : 1:30 PM EST
Date: 2/12/2010
Dates Effective: Feb 15-16 2010
Areas effected : West VA,Northern VA, MD, DE, SE PA, South Central PA, East central PA, All of New Jersey & NYC & Southern New England.
Real Weather Services is issuing a Level 1 Alert for the regions above listed. A reminder of what a level 1 Alert means:
Level 1 Alert : On Guard. This means conditions look favorable for a significant winter event across the region
Latest model runs are showing another winter storm to potentially effect the region mentioned above. Models are starting to converge on a winter storm to effect the areas mentioned above.
Latest GFS guidance brings Level 3 warning criteria to these effected areas in the range of .50-.75 liquid equivalent from parts of MD NE thru Eastern PA into SNE, and a general .25-.50 across the rest of the region .
The system responsible for this potential outcome is a Manitoba Mauler that will be dropping out of the midwest and making a track to the south of the region across the state of VA and then moving NE off the coast of Delmarva as it continues to deepen.
This is not a clipper redeveloping in the sense of passing energy off to a secondary but rather a Manitoba Mauler that moves across the region as a closed low and deepens along the way and taps into Atlantic Moisture.
Real Weather Services is issuing this Level 1 Alert as the potential for a light to moderate snowfall is possible. Some regions may pick up more then 6 inches of snow if the potential plays out the way it is currently expected to.
Manitoba Maulers are perhaps the most difficult of the clipper type storms to forecast. Real Weather services will continue to monitor and update this as conditions warrant.
Any upgrades to a Level 2 if needed will be issued in the next 24 hours. Stay tuned to further updates!
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