Usually here at Real Wx Services we like to get the preliminary outlook for the following winter out to the public by the end of March. This year we are a little late in doing so.
This past winter, ended up being a strong La Nina winter and once again many places ended up receiving some major snowfall totals for the year in part because this past winter while La Nina did not act as a La Nina. With this last storm that is currently moving thru on April 1st we can put to close the winter of 2010-2011 and begin to look forward to winter 2011-2012.
Looking at the image above you will see what the ENSO models are suggesting to occur. BY about June it is expected that we should be in a neutral ENSO. From there as you can tell the models are still essentially divided on what is going to occur by the Winter of 2011. However, if you take notice we are going from a moderately strong La Nina to a Neutral Enso by June and this is a rather ABRUPT change in a relatively short amount of time. History has also shown that models underestimate the strength of these changes.
Lets take a look at past ENSO history:
1950-51 Winter La Nina –followed by Weak El Nino
1954-55 Winter La Nina followed by La Nina
1955-56 La Nina Winter followed by a La Nina
1956-57 La Nina Winter followed by a El Nino Winter
1962-63 La Nina Winter followed by a El Nino Winter
1964-65 La Nina Winter followed by a El Nino Winter
1967-68 La Nina Winter followed by a El Nino Winter
1970-71 La Nina Winter followed by a La Nina Winter
1971-1972 La Nina Winter followed by a El Nino Winter
1973-74 La Nina Winter followed by a LA Nina winter
1974-75 La Nina Winter followed by a La Nina Winter
1975-1976 La Nina followed by a El Nino Winter
1998-99 La Nina followed by a La Nina Winter.
So out of the 13 winters above greater then 50% of the La Nina winters were followed up with a El Nino winter.
We will have a more detailed outlook issued by September of 2011..that will take a look at all the teleconnections etc. However..we wanted to get the preliminary thinking out to the public. At this present time we are leaning towards an El Nino winter. Positive Values should begin by the fall of 2011 & from there we could be looking at a moderate El Nino winter similar to 2009-2010.
So at the present time we are releasing these preliminary precipitation maps and temperature maps!
We are going to make this a stand alone page as well so it can always be found at the top of the blog on the right hand side. As we review more information etc it will be added on to this released outlook. Check back for more details as we go thru the summer months.
