Similar Pattern Could It Produce Similar Results?

While no two patterns are ever 100% completely the same..it is quite possible to have similar results when the pattern that is in place is favorable.

West based negative NAO has returned and a negative AO is forecasted to return and in a sense it could approach dangerous levels such as shades of 2009-2010. Now the difference between last year and this year is the ENSO state..this year being a La Nina and this normally would shut down the southern stream…where as last year being an El Nino this enhanced the southern stream.

However..there are times where the blocking due to the NAO & AO can just over power what would be the normal ENSO signals and you end up with situations like the Christmas Storm.

So..once again we find ourselves in a similar pattern as we were since the beginning of winter…and perhaps a uncanny but similar situation.

Once again we can see the Southern Stream S/W and normally the bias of the GFS would be to send this piece of energy out in a progressive manner and miss the phase and we would result in a south and east scenario. This go around it appears as if the GFS wants to hold this energy back so by the time it is ready to send it out ..it misses any northern stream interaction and it has the polar vortex so far south it just squashes and sends it out to sea.

The ECM gets kind of interesting here tonight as well. It has a northern stream piece of energy dropping down thru Montana  (sound familiar?) and instead of playing to its bias of holding energy back..sends this southern stream S/W out and phases with the Northern stream energy and starts to go negative tilt…just a tad to late…

Moves the low pressure out of the GOM to a position near Hatteras & explodes and then moves Northeast..

12 Z yesterday had a similar situation but there was no phase so it did not make it quite as far to the north. Now what is preventing this from coming up the coast is that the polar vortex is over Maine so its just to far south which prevents this from coming more up the coast. However, the ridge axis is fine …

If that polar vortex lifts up and out of the way faster then what is being modeled then places from DC to NYC will once again be dealing with the potential for a Significant Winter Storm.

There is plenty of time to monitor the trends on the models & the only one thing to take away from everything right now is once again we are dealing with a pattern favorable for an East Coast Storm and its going to come down to timing & phasing.

If the polar vortex is too far south we will be looking at locations from VA to the Carolinas getting hit with a snowstorm. If it moves further to the north..then DC to NYC will be prime targets.

Stay tuned to R.W.S & we will keep you updated on this potential!

December 31st Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 30th at KABE was 41 degrees. This was above normal, however, with the overnight low of 13 we came out on a negative departure day! Heck of a way to run a January thaw.

Today there maybe some rainshowers and some snowshowers as well over the Northern Sections of the NE.. Snowshowers would mainly be in Northern NH and into Northern Maine but even these areas will warm up enough to just become plain rain showers. Other wise the rest of the region will be partly cloudy .

Temperatures will be in the 30s to the north with the 40s elsewhere..there could be some 50s from southern PA and points southwards…

In other words a true January thaw day on tap for most of the region…

Shades of 2009-2010 Can Not Stress Enough!

We had mentioned in our winter outlook how we thought that this winter could potentially end up being on the colder side with more snow chances then many thought was possible. We attributed this to the state of the NAO and how is should reside mostly on the negative side thru out winter. We also attributed this to a new running testing theory of an active hurricane season and being a La Nina and how those La Nina winters turned out following previous active hurricane seasons.

Thus far we have had a Blizzard on the East Coast for the 2010-2011 season which dropped between 1 and two feet from KPHL into NJ and points NE into NYC…

This Blizzard became what we would call a pattern changer as after this blizzard we have had some ridging move into the east and a warm up in temperatures. However…is it a permanent pattern changer/

Teleconnections that are there for us to look at suggest that this is a very temporary pattern change or very temporary January thaw and after about a 4 day period and the cold front proceeds thru..our negative NAO and negative AO shall return and the AO looks to tank once again and blocking resumes where it lets off and we are in a pattern much like we have been since the beginning of winter.

So what does this mean? Well it means a return to colder weather and temperatures below normal in the distant near future. It also means that chances of snow shall increase once again & areas from the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast should be on the guard for a S/W to come in thru Southern California and then be on the move along the GOM. Best chance for this to occur looks to be between January 9-12th 2010.

You can see on tonights GFS that the model actually does bring a S/W into southern California and does take it to the GOM..

However..the GFS then proceeds to take this south and east and out to sea. Now this is indeed possible if the blocking becomes to strong. However…

The GGEM seems to want to bring this up the coast further to the north and bringing a East Coast Snowstorm. Picture above look familiar? Remember folks its not about modeology but about the pattern and might i suggest with a like pattern we could be looking at a similar scenario potentially again! Stay tuned!

December 30th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 29th at KABE was 39 degrees ..this was slightly above normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a partly sunny day across majority of the region. The one exception to this is extreme SW PA where they may get some light rain which may freeze at first with precipitation that is building out ahead of an approaching frontal system.

Temperatures today will be in the 20s north to 30s and lower 40s pretty much everywhere else.

Right now basically what we are experiencing is a “ Jan” thaw..Say that again? Yes right now we are approaching what is going to be the January thaw in which will last for a total of about 4 days where the temperatures are going to get into the 40s before a cold front comes back thru and blocking resumes where it left off.

This is basically all thanks to a La Nina that is not acting like a La Nina..but rather more like the shades of 2009-2010.

December 29th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 28th of December @ KABE was 35 degrees, This was slightly below normal but with the overnight low not really dropping the day came out 1 degree above normal.

For the most part today will be a mostly sunny day after some clouds around to start the morning. There may be some scattered snow showers in NY state..otherwise majority of the area will be precipitation free.

Temperatures will be in the 20s north to the 30s elsewhere with 40 below the PA/MD line …

December 28th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 27th of December was 28 degrees with a total of 2.6 inches of snow from the system that started on the 26th and ended on the 27th.

That storm has pulled away and except for a few snowshowers left over Maine has left in its wake some very windy weather and cold temperatures. So there will be areas of blowing snow today and also some snow falling yet mainly off of the great lakes. Otherwise it will be sunny but continued windy and cold.

High temperatures today will be in the teens north to 30s south. However the winds will make it feel even colder!

December 27th Daily Discussion

High temperature on the 26th @ KABE was 29 degrees. This was once again another day below normal.

Basically today is going to be a cloudy cold and windy day and the blizzard along the coast of the east coast will begin to wind down as it continues to pull NNE of the region.

So snow will be falling into the morning hours across the eastern side from about SE PA and east of there and then it will last longer up into Maine and taper off from south to North. Winds are going to be quite strong so if you recieved any snow it will be blowing and drifting.

Temperatures are going to be very cold as well essentially in the teens and 20s! Bundle up because with the winds wind chill values will be low as well.

Verification…for the Christmas Week Storm!

The above were the three maps that were issued..verification time for the east is still some time away but for locations on the western side of PA/NJ line ..most locations did not work out. Sorry guys as DT would say “ I SCREWED the pooch!”

I will say this was a very complicated storm and the modeling did not exactly help any..However..none of this is an excuse for not casting this better & we will do our best to look at where things went wrong & make sure something like this does not happen again..

R.W.S Update On The Christmas Storm

,Real Wx Service Office

Time:3:00 AM

Date:12/26/10

Effective Dates :12/26-27 2010

Real Wx Services has revised its latest snowfall map after looking at the latest guidance.  This Level 3 Alert  covers the following locations:

Eastern PA, East Central Pa, Se PA,NC PA, NE PA,  All of NJ, De, NC NY, SE NY, SNE, All of Maine And Northern New England…Eastern  Md..

 

 

 However..at the same time there is also some good evidence to suggest that this will come further west with the QPF then what the models are currently showing.

 

The latest initialization of the 6 Z RUC being located west of where the Globals have it at this time.

The latest pressure of the storm being at 999 mbs when it should be around 1002 mbs. We just dropped 3 MBS the last hour. Radar seems to indicate that the moisture is now starting to move more due north and this would make sense with a deepening low pressure that is starting to bomb.

So with every thing I am seeing i am going to keep the older map up here as well in case the more west solution works out as the RUC keeps moving west as well with each update.

We will obviously continue to monitor this and adjust if need be as we go along. Being the storm is still down south there is some time to follow this thru if need be!

This will be a dangerous storm with winds of 35 MPH gusting to 50 MPH & higher. Blowing and drifting of snow and roads will become impassable!

Stay tuned for more information!

Level 3 Ruh Roh Continues With Blizzard Expected!

,Real Wx Service Office

Time:4:30 PM

Date:12/25/10

Effective Dates :12/26-27 2010

Real Wx Services has revised its latest snowfall map after looking at the latest guidance.  This Level 3 Alert  covers the following locations:

Eastern PA, East Central Pa, Se PA,NC PA, NE PA,  All of NJ, De, NC NY, SE NY, SNE, All of Maine And Northern New England…Eastern & Central Md.. Eastern & Central Va,

This will be a dangerous storm with winds of 35 MPH gusting to 50 MPH & higher. Blowing and drifting of snow and roads will become impassable!

Stay tuned for more information!

Level 3 Ruh Roh Is In Effect –Details Released!

Real Wx Service Office

Time: 2:30 AM

12/25/10

Effective: 12/26-12-27/10

Areas Effected: Eastern PA, East Central Pa, Se PA,NC PA, NE PA,  All of NJ, De, NC NY, SE NY, SNE, Eastern & Central Md.. Eastern & Central Va, & Eastern & Central NC..

Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...

Models have come to a consensus with a low pressure developing over the GOM and riding around the base of the trough and up the eastern seaboard. This low pressure as it moves along the coast will deepen rapidly and bring Wintry Weather to the East Coast and areas inland covered in the beginning of this message. This low pressure looks to get down into the 970-980 MB range.

Thru out the course of the past 24 hrs we have been observing the trends on the weather models. The Model that has been doing the best with this storm and leading the pack for the rest of the models is the GFS (American Model) ..Since its 12 Z solution on the 24th it has been showing a Blizzard of 1-2 feet along portions of the east coast.

Hydrometeorological Prediction System insisted on tossing out the GFS model claiming initialization errors along with numerous data missing. 18 Z model came out with new Data and they still were tossing the model out. 00Z model on the 25th came out and they were now switching gears to gridscale feedback issues.

All this because the model that they choose to use, which originally showed an East Coast Blizzard at 12 Z yesterday went out to sea effecting only portions of Extreme SNE. However, 00z 12/25/10 ECM comes out and has now gone back to a GFS Like Solution.

While HPC has been reluctant in alerting the people & with it being Christmas & alot of people traveling…Real Wx Services is issuing a Level 3 Alert.

The following is a Preliminary Map & certainly nothing final. We feel that the American Models & Short Range models like the MM5, etc are more reliable at this point then the European Computer Model due to its still playing catchup to the GFS.

These totals do NOT include ratios ..hence the reason for the + sign.

This storm should be accompanied by very strong sustained and gusty winds. Winds sustained at 35 & gusting to 50 or higher are possible.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly once this storm begins. Stay tuned for any further updates of information!

LEVEL 3 RUH ROH IS IN EFFECT..DETAILS TO FOLLOW:

Real Wx Services is issuing a level 3 Alert. Ruh Roh!

Time:1:45 AM EST

12/25/2010

Effective: 12/26-12/27 2010

Information following this post . This is just to alert YOU the public!

Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...

The Christmas Storm That Was ..

This is going to be very brief due to the time but …latest models seem to be coming to a consensus on the Christmas Week Storm and if you are southwest of extreme coastal New england it appears as though your time is running out to see any last minute changes in the modeling.

Just to give you an idea at what we are looking at…

Now this is the 6 Z GFS which actually is slightly east of 00z..however you can see just how close this one is . And being this is 66-72 hrs away it is close enough to warrant attention..especially in Cape Cod and extreme SNE ..where if the area of low pressure is anywhere wrapped up as tight as what this model shows it to be,,could be looking at blizzard conditions.

So for the area of Cape Cod and extreme SNE along the coast..we are going to leave the level 2 in place…

ALL other regions we are going to drop back down to a Level 1. While it seems likely that this will indeed be far enough off the coast to spare inland any effects other then winds..there is still some spreads in the means that we feel  warrant keeping a LEVEL 1 elsewhere which simply means we need to be on guard because conditions are favorable..

As you can see in the ECM means here at 72 there is quite the spread to the west and Southwest.

We will be here thru X MAS Eve and X MAS day to continue to track this and monitor this and in all reality its going to come down to watching this develop via old fashion Now Casting with Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor and Sea Level Pressure etc.  For example things are looking more active via Radar currently *5:17 AM… then what is being modeled. It would also appear that thunderstorms look to be developing in SW TX and precipitation at this time is moving due east..

So stay tuned will be back with more info after 12 Z runs!

December 24th Christmas Eve Forecast

First off let me start this off by saying we here @ Real Wx Services would like to take the time to wish you a Merry Christmas. Regardless of whether or not we have snow..its a blessed time of the year and we wish you and yours many more with blessings to come! Lets not forget what this Holiday is all about!

With that out of the way…the high temperature at KABE on the 23rd was 35 degrees ..this was below normal again and the only thing that took the departure slightly positive again was the overnight low.

Today for the most part is going to be a partly cloudy day and there could be some scattered flurries out and about. Other wise all eyes are on the storm approaching from the west and the SW to see what it will do.

Temperatures today will pretty much be in the 30s all over from north to south!

The Christmas Confusion & Mayhem Continues

In all honesty, last night the 00z models were completely all over the place with the exception of one model that remained consistent as far as deepness of the storm but also adjusted its speed. More about that in a bit. Lets look at the models…

First model up is the 00z UKMET as you can tell this model develops an absolute bomb as it charges northwards along and off the coast.

Next the 00z GGEM this also develops a bomb but this model is even more east then prior runs. A factor for this could be that it completely has the southern stream S/W vanish at 36 hrs. Without that there would be no phase and OTS it would go.

On to the GFS..the GFS has actually been relatively consistent but as of tonight it actually was slightly more west then its prior runs. This too in further hours develops quite the bomb and hits SNE pretty good.

Now, on to the most consistent model..this should be no surprise here it is the ECM OP on top and Means on Bottom. As you can see the means is weaker..this could mean that the storm could be weaker but more likely its  the effect of 52 members smoothing down. The Op came a slight tick east and has adjusted its speed ..however..as we like to let the truth be known it did NOT cave into the GFS/GGEM/UKMET as neither of those bring precipitation to PA/NJ and south.

Granted, the ECM did not show a HECS but its still a Major Storm which even on the means deepens to 976 north.

dark gray 2-2.5
pink 1.75-2
lgt pink 1.5-1.75
blue 1.25-1.5
lgt purple 1-1.25
turqouise .75-1
white .5-.75
green .25-.5
lgt green <.25

This would also be some high ratios along the lines of 15:1-20:1 because the upper levels are so cold

Its important to note a few things. 00z models were without Data that came specifically from the ULL off the SW coast. This could have effected the models. The next thing to note is this is 7 runs of the ECM to show a major snowstorm along the east coast with 5 being HECS.

QPF will fluctuate from run to run ..Another important thing to note is that both the GFS means and the GGEM means are more west then the ops…in the case of the GFS ..normally they have a SE bias because of the lower resolution so this is highly important and indicative that future runs could come west.

We will continue the level 2 with so much uncertainty leaning on the consistency of the ECM ..However..and perhaps the most important part to take home on this is the following:

When a storm blows up that deep it is due to a thermal gradient. Climo argues that the thermal gradient would be on the western edge or right along the Gulf stream. So..lets watch and see what happens with the guidance over the next 24 hrs..

Stay tuned for more information!

December 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 22nd was 40 degrees this is the first time since Dec 1st that we actually went slightly above normal and ended up with a positive departure. This is owed to clouds being in the area in the overnight hours and not allowing the temperatures to drop.

It is also quite windy with winds gusting to 37 MPH right now as i type this out. So looking at today looks like its going to be about the same as what its been ..Breezy and variable clouds with scattered snow showers from Western PA thru the Northern tier of PA into the NE. May even be some scattered rain showers around Cape Cod.

Temperatures will generally remain in the 30s again though with the lows not dropping so far out of the 30s i would not be surprised to see some 40 degree readings again.

The Christmas Storm ..Perhaps The Story Should be Told

You may read information on different parts of the internet in reference to the models that I discuss on a nightly basis whenever there is a storm involved. Alot of this information is not always completely true.

First of all you may have heard that the UKMET was well east ..this simply is not true…while it is still east @ 120 hrs it was the same as 12 Z as far as position.

And one thing that has to be recognized is beyond 72 hours it is a bias of the model to be suppressed with east coast systems.

The 00z GGEM while it did trend slightly east it still takes a 962 MB bomb to the benchmark…Here is the model at 114 hrs.

On to the GFS…while the GFS is still OTS..one thing to note on it is that it has come back further west from its 18 Z run. There are other changes which will be discussed shortly.

Finally lets show the ECM and again I will post more on this in a little bit.

Now lets get into the thick of things. The European computer model for 5 straight runs has showed a east coast snowstorm. Four of those 5 runs have been Historical East Coast Blizzards. Why is this important? First it offers consistency with the model. Second, the ECM was the first model to drop this south into a suppressed track and since that time all models departed from the bowling ball solution to a Miller A in various positions.

Third while the GFS was slightly west of its 18 Z run…it had also slowed down on the speed of the S/W AKA ECM. Its also interesting to note that at the same time the GGEM shifted slightly east it also slowed down its speed of the S/W ..aka ECM.

Another note of interest is the 00z NAM and 06Z NAM how up to 72 hrs (when it gets more to long range for it) it is exactly like the ECM.

Fourth while the OP GFS trended west but still east and the GGEM OP trended east slightly both ensemble means trended more west from there prior runs.

Now the 6 Z GFS gets even more interesting because now it develops a superbomb at 120 hrs of course OTS but here is the kicker and i got this verified from a educated pro met as well. Look at the major , drastic drop south…in 6 hrs..

Versus

We are talking about Central Tx 00z to southwest of TX at 6 Z, The 6 Z just misses the phase so when i noticed this drastic drop south i asked a pro met if that could be the reason why it missed the phase. His response and i quote:

Yeah, I think the very reason why. I will say models stink with phasing, and it is difficult for them to realistically simulate the process. Note how close it is to phasing early but it just "misses". Really close...
Even though the solution is way OTS, it is really close to what it needs to be for a direct hit.

In other words the 6 Z has once again took more steps towards the ECM.

It must be noted that the means of the ECM are somewhat east of the 00z OP but this is largely due to some being more off shore and some supporting the OP ..so its more then likely skewing the means as well as its more of a smoothed down version.

With models trending towards the ECM for the most part..but not quite there yet..will once again hold off on the Level 3…but as you can see the True story has been told versus what you may read elsewhere!

Stay tuned for further information

December 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 21st @ KABE was 36 degrees which again was slightly below normal but due to the overnight low it ended up being a seasonal day!

Today will be another day of variable clouds where there will once again be a chance of snowshowers from N PA into the NE into MAINE but once into MAINE you will have more steadier snows …all thanks to the low pressure that missed us and bombed majorly to the east…

Temperatures today will generally be in the 30s from north to south.

Just a notation but on X Mas day ..Real Wx Services will indeed be on top of the weather…despite the Holiday!

The Christmas Storm On The Cusp Of Level 3 Alert!

Real Wx Services is carrying over the Level 2 Alert but are very close to pulling the trigger for a level 3 Alert. A reminder of Level 3 Alert is Ruh Roh! It means a Significant Winter Weather Storm is coming & is expected to impact the area. We are close to pulling the trigger but need to hold off a little longer.

Some of the NWS offices that are updating their AFDS this morning really need to look at the guidance a little better then what they do in their AFD discussions. The biggest gripe I have today is with Mt Holly who claims that the guidance is ALL OVER THE PLACE!!! Were they watching the same guidance that we were watching ???

Lets look at the guidance from 00z for the 21st…

The above models are the GGEM, ECM & GFS . The ECM means was used because it is compatible more speed wise with the rest of guidance compared to the OP but even the means from 144-168 crawl the low NEwards,

As one can see the GGEM & ECM are depicting what would be a SECS borderline HECS with winds to blizzard force quite possible and QPF ranging from .75 to 1.75 depending on location. The GFS while a little faster on timing also is depicting a much stronger and further west storm then prior runs. So essentially we have three models in complete harmony with a Significant Winter Weather Event with the GFS just slightly more North in its evolution.

As you can see by looking at this next image QPF is pretty good and with the cold temperatures @ 850 we would be looking at ratios of about 16:1

gray 1.25-1.5
yellow 1-1.25
pink .75-1
green .5-.75
blue .25-.5

The only solution tonight that was more east and would not have any effect was the UKMET..However even that model at 144 hrs showed a deep low pressure of 983 mbs and using the red flag of the Nogaps which was more NW of the UKMET…that generally implies the UK is an outlier on the southern edge of guidance!

Let me stress the only thing that guidance is not agreeing on at this point is the speed of the system. Outside of the UKMET..all guidance agrees on a Significant Winter Weather Event to effect the east coast around Christmas Day!

Stay tuned for more information later today!

December 21st Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature yesterday @ KABE was 35 degrees. This continues the below normal streak that has been in place.

Today will be a variably cloudy day with the possibility of some scattered flurries in PA and then a chance of some snowshowers in CNY into NW Maine..along the coast of maine there could be some rain showers. The culprit responsible for this is the low pressure that missed majority of the region to the south and east.

Temperatures are generally going to be in the 20s to the north in the interior ..40s along the coast of Maine and 30s pretty much elsewhere. It will also be a breezy day because of that low pressure and high pressure building in so it will feel colder.

R.W.S Is Issuing A Level Two Alert For The Christmas Storm!

Level 2 Alert : Be Prepared .. This means that guidance is converging on a solution and conditions are at the approaching the level where you should actually prepare for significant winter weather..

Time Issued : 4:30 AM

Date Issued: 12/20

Effective 12/24-12/26

Effected areas..Mid Atlantic into the Northeast ..except immediately along the coast has the chance for precipitation type problems.

Models have trended further south and stronger with the shortwave of interest. Majority of the models are bringing the shortwave at of the rockies and dropping it south into Tx moving across the GOM and then across the southeast and then making the turn up the coast as the Northern Jet Stream phases in with the system and creates a substantial snowstorm. There are some timing differences in the time of the storm and the timing of the phasing. However ..sufficient to say is all guidance is phasing these two jet streams together and riding a storm up the coast.

The European computer model actually delivers a historical East Coast Snow storm that would be a blizzard across the region from DC to the NE.

The only model that was not showing this solution was the GFS ..however that is due to it having the southern stream shortwave faster where as the other models had this slower. The GFS slides more off to the south and east off the coast and phases and makes the turn a little too late.

This storm is occurring at a time period where the pattern is changing and this is generally the time when larger storms occur and potential KU storms can occur. The GWO is also in a favorable phase which is another indicator in favor of development. The PNA ridge is spiking and the –NAO –AO ..would indeed be capable of slowing down the southern stream S/W allowing for the solutions above.

We feel that the GFS at the surface is the outlier but at H5 (the upper levels 500 mbs) it is in pretty much the same camp of solutions.

So with the models converging on this we have decided to upgrade to a Level 2 Alert. This storm has the potential to be a significant Winter weather event and the potential to impact your holiday travel plans.

To just give you an indication of what the ECM was indicating for QPF (which is conservative via its depiction) is a general 1.00-1.25 without ratios.

Stay tuned for further updates and any potential upgrades to a Level 3.

***********************NOTE******************************

If you are not yet aware we do have live chat that analyzes these runs and it is only at Real Wx Service forums. If you have not yet joined ..now is the time to join and discuss this potential event!

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