Similar Pattern Could It Produce Similar Results?

While no two patterns are ever 100% completely the same..it is quite possible to have similar results when the pattern that is in place is favorable.

West based negative NAO has returned and a negative AO is forecasted to return and in a sense it could approach dangerous levels such as shades of 2009-2010. Now the difference between last year and this year is the ENSO state..this year being a La Nina and this normally would shut down the southern stream…where as last year being an El Nino this enhanced the southern stream.

However..there are times where the blocking due to the NAO & AO can just over power what would be the normal ENSO signals and you end up with situations like the Christmas Storm.

So..once again we find ourselves in a similar pattern as we were since the beginning of winter…and perhaps a uncanny but similar situation.

Once again we can see the Southern Stream S/W and normally the bias of the GFS would be to send this piece of energy out in a progressive manner and miss the phase and we would result in a south and east scenario. This go around it appears as if the GFS wants to hold this energy back so by the time it is ready to send it out ..it misses any northern stream interaction and it has the polar vortex so far south it just squashes and sends it out to sea.

The ECM gets kind of interesting here tonight as well. It has a northern stream piece of energy dropping down thru Montana  (sound familiar?) and instead of playing to its bias of holding energy back..sends this southern stream S/W out and phases with the Northern stream energy and starts to go negative tilt…just a tad to late…

Moves the low pressure out of the GOM to a position near Hatteras & explodes and then moves Northeast..

12 Z yesterday had a similar situation but there was no phase so it did not make it quite as far to the north. Now what is preventing this from coming up the coast is that the polar vortex is over Maine so its just to far south which prevents this from coming more up the coast. However, the ridge axis is fine …

If that polar vortex lifts up and out of the way faster then what is being modeled then places from DC to NYC will once again be dealing with the potential for a Significant Winter Storm.

There is plenty of time to monitor the trends on the models & the only one thing to take away from everything right now is once again we are dealing with a pattern favorable for an East Coast Storm and its going to come down to timing & phasing.

If the polar vortex is too far south we will be looking at locations from VA to the Carolinas getting hit with a snowstorm. If it moves further to the north..then DC to NYC will be prime targets.

Stay tuned to R.W.S & we will keep you updated on this potential!