I can only imagine if you are a model hugger how you must have felt when you were watching the models yesterday evening! People all over the internet were throwing in the towel…some were so adamant that “ Did you not listen to JB? Winters over after Dec 15th ..so if this storm does not work out that’s it”. These were the sounds of alarm & hype coming from some people!
Here at R.W.S ..we like to stay away from that frame of thinking. How could winter be over before calendar winter even begins? It is statements like these that are made by those that are hugging the models and hugging some of the hype made by the money making propaganda machines that are out there forecasting the weather. Yes, brutal but brutally honest!
Who can blame them though when looking at some of the solutions coming out of the models yesterday evening? So that is exactly what we are going to do. We are going to look at the solutions and see what is going on. Are they plausible solutions?
First up tonight is going to be the European Computer model!
So what is going on here? Well first thing that you notice when looking at the ECM is the height rises in the east. Basically the operational ECM takes low pressure into chicago and then stalls this area of low pressure and turns it into a FROPA. This cold front then heads towards the east and then stalls around NYC. Meanwhile another low pressure develops over South Carolina and moves into Central VA ..right up across or just west of Philadelphia PA, dropping 1 inch of rain in 6 hours and then pushes east from there. 1-1.5 inches of rain over the PA region to NYC region.. Meanwhile that cold front has stalled and another new wave is developing over the Atlantic and Maine has had anywhere from 4-6 inches of rain. By 228 hrs that cold front stalls around NYC (as mentioned above) and that Atlantic low is retrograding back towards Southern New England. By 234 the low is then over the benchmark but after receiving 1-1.5 inches of rain ..the same areas receive 2-4 + of snow from the retrograding Atlantic low! Meanwhile Maine has had 7-8 inches of rain. By 240 still snowing from eastern PA , KPHL towards NYC which is probably sleet verbatim.
Wow! What an Epic Model Run. Or is it an Epic Mess? Is it even plausible? To find out these answers keep reading!
Next up is the GFS from 00z..
Here you have the GFS and it looks pretty similar to the ECM tracking..although the GFS is certainly not a FROPA ..nor as far northwest as the ECM ..however the GFS has gone from showing two prior east coast or OTS solutions to this very amped up version. This would be a front end snow to ice to rain for majority of the region.
So as you can see we have two solutions that are not very favorable for an east coast snow event..so you have alot of people throwing in the towel.
Are any of these solutions plausible? Lets address the GFS because this is similar to what the OP ECM was doing before in it was taking the low pressure right up the spine of the Appalachians & the likelihood of that happening is very low.
What about the ECM? Well ..the scenario is certainly possible but is it supported at all by the ECM ensembles?
The answer is obviously no! The means do not support the operational run by any stretch of the imagination. Matter of fact one could look at the means and say that this would be a significant snowstorm for all except for perhaps south and east of KPHL (along the coast)
To make things even more interesting is that the GFS ensemble means agree with the ECM ensemble means just the GFS is a tad faster.
So basically with such solutions coming out and the ensembles completely not supporting them..at this point and time I would recommend to follow the means..as the means actually agree with one another.
So while EVERYONE else is throwing in the towel..R.W.S is waving the Red Flag of Caution! Use caution when watching the models and verify the run towards its means! If it looks fluky it probably is! This threat is still very much on the table!
Next update will be after 00z models later today!
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