Everybody basically remembers the winter of 2009-2010. It was an el nino winter. It ended up being one of the snowiest winters in quite some time for regions south of the PA border as well as places in PA & into NYC area. It also had one of the strongest negative AO’s on record. Some locations received there first snows in October..in areas that normally would not. It was a historical winter to say the least.
Fast forward to 2010-2011 winter. We are now in the opposite ENSO sign. We are in a La Nina. We have been led to believe by some Professional Forecasters that come December 15th Winter is Over. Pretty much every winter forecast has been calling for a warmer winter because of the La Nina. Talks of the strongest La Nina on record. A pretty dismal winter over all according to majority of the forecasts issued.
Lower image shows what a La Nina typically is. However..is this La Nina acting like your typical La Nina?
Pretty impressive departures over the Southeast for the first 9 days of December. Temperatures are well below normal for this time of the year. However..look what it is suppose to be like over the Southeast in a La Nina Winter. Whats going on?
Lets call it shades of 2009-2010. Extreme blocking is back. AO is once again expected to tank, NAO has been negative!
As you can plainly tell by looking at these images ..this is indeed shades of 2009-2010 and this looks to continue for the forseeable future. This year instead of October ..locations had their first snow in november.
November MEI was –1.60 . Previously it was –1.90. An indication that La Nina could be weakening. What kind of impacts a weakening La Nina could have with a –NAO & –AO this winter remain to be seen.
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