Red Flag Could Be Leading The Way!

We here @ Real Wx Services are dedicated to bringing you the most accurate information when it comes to potential winter storms in the region. This dedication has led to 3 hrs sleep in the last 42 hours. When the potential exists for a Major Storm along the east coast it is our goal to stay ahead of the rest.

Last night we introduced to you the readers the potential Red Flag of the UKMET when it came to the modeling being displayed by the Operational European Computer model. One thing I have noticed thru the years of forecasting & following the weather is that if the UKMET is majorly different from the ECM ..majority of the time it is an indication that the ECM is going to have to readjust sometime into the future.

Tonight after reviewing the 00z guidance we are coming into better harmony with the models in the ensembles and closer harmony in the operational runs with an exception. So lets get right to it..

If you recall the GFS model for some of its runs yesterday started to trend towards the south with the low pressure area. Until 00z tonight. 00Z tonight the GFS came more to the NW, although some improvements were made such as a stronger 50/50 low.

GFS literally takes the low into Western PA and then marches it across PA along the Northern Central tier! 

The GGEM as of 12 Z yesterday was running the area of low pressure up into NW ohio and then dropping down sliding underneath PA and then cut across KPHL  and due north from there.

Tonight the GGEM is sort of similar to its 12 Z run ..with the exception this time its in southern ohio..slides underneath PA over to about NC VA but then from there moves due N into CNY state.

Last night, if you recall..the 00z UKMET had a low pressure that went pretty close to KPHL and then moved up along the coast.

Tonight the 00z UKMET has not strayed from that solution …

Perhaps the biggest change in the models has come with the European Computer model which if you recall looked like this at 12 Z yesterday.

However later when the ensembles came out we showed you how they majorly differed from the operational run. So lets look at tonights ECM ..

Quite the change in modeling since 12 Z run 12 hours earlier. So as you can see the 00z ECM has shifted well to the south and east from its 12 Z solution. You can also see that it is getting closer to the UKMET solution as well. If you are a snow lover along the east coast this is certainly a step in the right direction. However..I still do not think its handling the situation correctly.

Before we look at the ensemble means of the models there are a couple points that i want to hit home..

1. The air mass we have over us currently is very cold for this time of the year and even though it is going to modify ..low level cold air can sometimes be pretty stubborn to leave at the surface.

2. Perhaps more important is the cold air that is coming down behind this system. With this cold air pressing south ..cold air is heavy and dense and could get tapped into the storm.

3. Models could be underdoing the cold air currently in place. I know @ ABE high temperatures been basically below forecasted levels.

Now lets get onto the means & then I am going to sum up my current thoughts on how I see this happening.

GFS ensemble means

GGEM ensemble means

ECM ensemble means

Rather Interesting scenario we have going here with the ensemble means.

GFS ensemble means equal a coastal storm

GGEM ensemble means equal a coastal storm

ECM ensemble means equal a coastal storm

And though not a mean but an operational model

The UKMET equals a coastal storm!

I did not post all ensemble mean images but if you go and check them out one thing your going to see is that none of the means have a primary with a secondary. This is something that is only coming out on the operational runs. This does not mean a secondary is not possible. However…my current thinking is that we are going to see a system come in from the PNW that is going to be able to dig southeastward thru the Rockies into the Oklahoma area and then move across the Southeast and then start to turn towards the NE into Kentucky and potentially cross anywhere between KPHL and the Delmarva area and then move North North east from there along the coast.

I do not think we are going to see any sort of primary head up towards Ohio and then jump to the coast..at least not at this time period because aside from the operational ECM and the GFS attempting this..there is no support for it.

So to sum things up at this point and time … this could become alot more interesting if my thoughts above turn out to be close to reality as the region could be dealing with a major snowfall.

Models are starting to come into agreement before and leading the way has been the Red Flag of the UKMET. Stay tuned for more updates on what could potentially be the first major east coast storm of the season.