No, you are not going to see Real Wx Service start talking about having to break out the Big Daddy Hats and you are not going to see us going crazy and talking about a EPIC Blockbuster event-However you will see us talk about potential possibilities and that is just what this is about!
For two consecutive runs the European Computer Model has been indicating the potential for a Major East Coast Storm. It started with last nights 00z ECM which had the necessary ingredients in place : such as a 50/50 low..some fresh arctic air..west based - NAO and what looks like a hybrid Miller A that would be making its way up the east coast. These are those images:
Today the 12 Z ECM keeps a storm in this time range with a little different solution. Low pressure forms in TX with precipitation breaking out in the plains but there is some ridging out ahead of this system and ultimately it ends up still being a hybrid system as one low cuts up towards the lakes and dissipates while another forms over GA. We still have cold air in place..the negative NAO is still in place..however not as strong as it is now but by 216 hrs it starts to drop again ...and we still have a 50/50 low in place..and a 1032 High pressure parked in place nearby as well. By 234 hours there is precipitation into the Northern Mid Atlantic and the 850s and freezing line in the vicinity of the PA/MD line ..by 240 hours their is now a secondary over Western NC but verbatim it would be rain from I 80 south...
Here are those images..
However if the ingredients such as the 50/50 low are in place as shown and the high pressure over the region with the fresh arctic air and a -NAO ..it would be quite difficult for this storm to cut to the lakes..even if a secondary forms.
So this seems like a period that has some potential behind it and we will continue to track and follow this and see if it indeed becomes a real threat.
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