Potential Still High On The Table For The Week Of December 11th

While the December 5th event has not panned out for north of the WV and VA area…as that system is sliding to the south..the potential still is on the table for December 11th onwards.

At this time range we generally do not like to look to the operational runs of the models because they will change significantly in the medium range… Instead we rather turn to the Ensemble means and for the purpose of this discussion alot more emphasis will be placed on the European Computer Model because it still clearly beats out the GFS & its ensembles.

Now, on the GFS model what one relatively is seeing is a Miller B type solution and if you notice it is also pretty slow in moving out the system up along the coast. Meanwhile at the same time frame we will look at the ECM model which we will place the most emphasis on and instead of the operational run we will look at its ensemble means.

These are the ensemble mean images from the 12 Z ECM and as one can plainly see we are looking at as well a Miller B solution but a solution where the 850s are certainly supportive of frozen precipitation the storm system is right off the coast of NJ.

Now the question becomes..are we looking at two separate storms in this time period or are we looking at one storm that is slow to move out and gets backed up due to the blocking that is currently in place?

Now, its hard to say without the in between hours but the means do not really show anything to suggest that there is another system dropping in from anywhere to make a second storm between 192 hrs and 216 hrs.

So what we could be looking at is two different scenarios.

1. Scenario # 1 is a piece of energy drops down from Canada into the Ohio Valley area and spawns a secondary off the coast of NJ..perhaps around the Delmarva area and then moves off the coast ..which then would be followed up by a 2nd storm..origin would be a little hard to figure out ..but that also could end up being similar to the first system.

2. We could be dealing with a system that drops down from Canada into the ohio valley and then reforms off the coast of NJ and begins to deepen rapidly while slowly moving away from the region.

Either scenario at this point is possible & I would not rule either one out but the one thing that is clear according to the means is that it would be cold enough to support frozen precipitation and then there after the storm it will only get colder.

So indeed some very interesting times are ahead & we will be monitoring and tracking this situation for you!