Level 3 Ruh Roh Is In Effect –Details Released!

Real Wx Service Office

Time: 2:30 AM

12/25/10

Effective: 12/26-12-27/10

Areas Effected: Eastern PA, East Central Pa, Se PA,NC PA, NE PA,  All of NJ, De, NC NY, SE NY, SNE, Eastern & Central Md.. Eastern & Central Va, & Eastern & Central NC..

Level 3 Alert : Ruh Roh . This means models have converged on a solution and now is likely that a significant winter weather will be effecting the area...

Models have come to a consensus with a low pressure developing over the GOM and riding around the base of the trough and up the eastern seaboard. This low pressure as it moves along the coast will deepen rapidly and bring Wintry Weather to the East Coast and areas inland covered in the beginning of this message. This low pressure looks to get down into the 970-980 MB range.

Thru out the course of the past 24 hrs we have been observing the trends on the weather models. The Model that has been doing the best with this storm and leading the pack for the rest of the models is the GFS (American Model) ..Since its 12 Z solution on the 24th it has been showing a Blizzard of 1-2 feet along portions of the east coast.

Hydrometeorological Prediction System insisted on tossing out the GFS model claiming initialization errors along with numerous data missing. 18 Z model came out with new Data and they still were tossing the model out. 00Z model on the 25th came out and they were now switching gears to gridscale feedback issues.

All this because the model that they choose to use, which originally showed an East Coast Blizzard at 12 Z yesterday went out to sea effecting only portions of Extreme SNE. However, 00z 12/25/10 ECM comes out and has now gone back to a GFS Like Solution.

While HPC has been reluctant in alerting the people & with it being Christmas & alot of people traveling…Real Wx Services is issuing a Level 3 Alert.

The following is a Preliminary Map & certainly nothing final. We feel that the American Models & Short Range models like the MM5, etc are more reliable at this point then the European Computer Model due to its still playing catchup to the GFS.

These totals do NOT include ratios ..hence the reason for the + sign.

This storm should be accompanied by very strong sustained and gusty winds. Winds sustained at 35 & gusting to 50 or higher are possible.

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly once this storm begins. Stay tuned for any further updates of information!