You may read information on different parts of the internet in reference to the models that I discuss on a nightly basis whenever there is a storm involved. Alot of this information is not always completely true.
First of all you may have heard that the UKMET was well east ..this simply is not true…while it is still east @ 120 hrs it was the same as 12 Z as far as position.
And one thing that has to be recognized is beyond 72 hours it is a bias of the model to be suppressed with east coast systems.
The 00z GGEM while it did trend slightly east it still takes a 962 MB bomb to the benchmark…Here is the model at 114 hrs.
On to the GFS…while the GFS is still OTS..one thing to note on it is that it has come back further west from its 18 Z run. There are other changes which will be discussed shortly.
Finally lets show the ECM and again I will post more on this in a little bit.
Now lets get into the thick of things. The European computer model for 5 straight runs has showed a east coast snowstorm. Four of those 5 runs have been Historical East Coast Blizzards. Why is this important? First it offers consistency with the model. Second, the ECM was the first model to drop this south into a suppressed track and since that time all models departed from the bowling ball solution to a Miller A in various positions.
Third while the GFS was slightly west of its 18 Z run…it had also slowed down on the speed of the S/W AKA ECM. Its also interesting to note that at the same time the GGEM shifted slightly east it also slowed down its speed of the S/W ..aka ECM.
Another note of interest is the 00z NAM and 06Z NAM how up to 72 hrs (when it gets more to long range for it) it is exactly like the ECM.
Fourth while the OP GFS trended west but still east and the GGEM OP trended east slightly both ensemble means trended more west from there prior runs.
Now the 6 Z GFS gets even more interesting because now it develops a superbomb at 120 hrs of course OTS but here is the kicker and i got this verified from a educated pro met as well. Look at the major , drastic drop south…in 6 hrs..
Versus
We are talking about Central Tx 00z to southwest of TX at 6 Z, The 6 Z just misses the phase so when i noticed this drastic drop south i asked a pro met if that could be the reason why it missed the phase. His response and i quote:
Yeah, I think the very reason why. I will say models stink with phasing, and it is difficult for them to realistically simulate the process. Note how close it is to phasing early but it just "misses". Really close...
Even though the solution is way OTS, it is really close to what it needs to be for a direct hit.
In other words the 6 Z has once again took more steps towards the ECM.
It must be noted that the means of the ECM are somewhat east of the 00z OP but this is largely due to some being more off shore and some supporting the OP ..so its more then likely skewing the means as well as its more of a smoothed down version.
With models trending towards the ECM for the most part..but not quite there yet..will once again hold off on the Level 3…but as you can see the True story has been told versus what you may read elsewhere!
Stay tuned for further information
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