We had mentioned in our winter outlook how we thought that this winter could potentially end up being on the colder side with more snow chances then many thought was possible. We attributed this to the state of the NAO and how is should reside mostly on the negative side thru out winter. We also attributed this to a new running testing theory of an active hurricane season and being a La Nina and how those La Nina winters turned out following previous active hurricane seasons.
Thus far we have had a Blizzard on the East Coast for the 2010-2011 season which dropped between 1 and two feet from KPHL into NJ and points NE into NYC…
This Blizzard became what we would call a pattern changer as after this blizzard we have had some ridging move into the east and a warm up in temperatures. However…is it a permanent pattern changer/
Teleconnections that are there for us to look at suggest that this is a very temporary pattern change or very temporary January thaw and after about a 4 day period and the cold front proceeds thru..our negative NAO and negative AO shall return and the AO looks to tank once again and blocking resumes where it lets off and we are in a pattern much like we have been since the beginning of winter.
So what does this mean? Well it means a return to colder weather and temperatures below normal in the distant near future. It also means that chances of snow shall increase once again & areas from the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast should be on the guard for a S/W to come in thru Southern California and then be on the move along the GOM. Best chance for this to occur looks to be between January 9-12th 2010.
You can see on tonights GFS that the model actually does bring a S/W into southern California and does take it to the GOM..
However..the GFS then proceeds to take this south and east and out to sea. Now this is indeed possible if the blocking becomes to strong. However…
The GGEM seems to want to bring this up the coast further to the north and bringing a East Coast Snowstorm. Picture above look familiar? Remember folks its not about modeology but about the pattern and might i suggest with a like pattern we could be looking at a similar scenario potentially again! Stay tuned!
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