Majority of guidance seems to becoming into better agreement on what is going to happen with this time period. Unfortunately, this storm is not going to play out the way it was originally modeled to back when it was in its long range.
So lets take a look at the modeling once again tonight and then I will put across things to watch for.
As you can see from the guidance above they basically all agree with a primary low heading into the great lakes. While the GGEM, UKMET, and ECM all seem to develop a secondary low. Latest NAM @ 6 z has also just come out with that type of solution. So even the short range NAM is basically on the same page.
Due to the low pressure moving to the Northwest of the area towards the Great Lakes and being quite deep this is going to send up a warm surge of southerly flow creating Warm Air Advection. Precipitation will start to move into the region probably after 7 PM for points PA and northwards.
As this precipitation arrives it will at first be moving into some lower level cold air. Depending on how fast this lower level cold air erodes will depend on the duration of Frozen precipitation on the eastern side. Map below will show the general thinking.
Associated with this primary area of low pressure is a strong cold front and behind this front is some very cold air that will move in. This cold front will move across the region later on sunday and any precipitation that is left over could change over to snow as the upper levels start to crash and the surface starts to respond as well. Behind this cold front will be some extremely cold air and windy conditions are quite possible as well.
Some things to watch out for:
1. Secondary development if it indeed occurs?
2. Strength of primary and track of primary…is it on track or further south. As of right now it is approaching IOWA and going thru the center of the state. This is south of where HPC had the tracking showed. Does it continue?
3. Low level cold air..How long does it hold or how fast does it erode? This will determine the amount of snow and or ice accumulations.
So with all the above said and explained the following map is issued below.
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