First of all let me inform you the readers that we do have a forum where everything here gets posted and we the members of the forum analyze the models as they come out in a chat room that is part of that forum! I hope you all decide to join us and join in the discussions.
After reviewing the 00z models tonight and also the 00z ensembles ..majority of the ensembles are actually in agreement with what should happen ,,still some difference in the operationals but it is important to remember that its still about 30 hrs or so till the S/W responsible comes on land.
So lets look at the models tonight and then we will look at the ensemble means.
First up is the UKMET which we have been using as a red flag towards the European computer model and you will see that it still is serving its purpose. Has a primary low and also a coastal low developing which then moves up around washing DC and then just to the east of KPHL and then over NYC and then because of the blocking into NY state. For all intents and purposes the track of the low along the coast is essentially the same.
Above is the GFS..the GFS has been flattening the Pacific Ridge and also lowering heights along the east coast and as of 18 Z introduced a S/W that was responsible for doing that. The 00z tonight continued on that same thought process and by doing so it slows down the phasing process and keeps the trough more positively tilted..and so the GFS tonight actually is a colder solution as the cold air comes in sooner and the big cities start as rain but also change to snow.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect in difference in models is the ECM as @ 12 Z yesterday it had completely flipped from its previous run which was a GLC. Now you can see that the ECM has come south and east by about 500 miles but is still warm ahead till the cold front passes but then it also gets snow into cities such as KPHL and KNYC .
As you can tell the ECM has actually made a big adjustment and I believe the ECM is still in the midst of playing catch up to the rest of the guidance.
Majority of your models are now showing the primary moving south and into the ohio valley and then developing a coastal low somewhere along the east coast between hatteras and delmarva.
Lets look at the ensemble means ..
As you can see the ECM ensemble means from 12 Z also shifted south and east but they are a little warm. However..on the backside the cities still do pick up some snowfall.
GFS ensemble means would basically support a snowstorm across the region. Individual members of the means also support the means here with about half of them now giving snow..which is more then previously.
GGEM means are also in harmony with the GFS means. So basically the GFS means, GGEM means & Ukmet are showing a similar solution with the ECM not far behind.
Essentially what it is going to boil down to is whether the Polar Vortex phases in with the S/W..How strong the primary is as it heads into or towards Ohio and how soon and where the transfer happens. If the transfer happens around Hatteras with a weaker primary that would be a lessen surge of WAA or Warm Air advection.
Unfortunately its still to early to know the answers.Another 24-30 hrs the energy will be on land and I believe the models will be in much better harmony!
If there is no phase it is possible that it could just come thru as a cold front…
You will not find us here at R.W.S talking about a MECS or SECS until it becomes apparent that this will happen. At best right now it appears as though the region could get some snow out of this system but it could be after some rain or wintery mix. Just to early for details like that.
One thing is certain after this low goes by its going to get bitterly cold!
Stay tuned for more information on this developing storm!
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