Wednesday, June 30, 2010

June 30th Early Morning Thoughts on Alex

I am now leaning towards the 8 AM advisory that we will be at a Cat 2 Hurricane! With winds of around 100 MPH...Perhaps even a Cat 3 (Major) as the system is now in good divergence and convergence and I believe as i mentioned in my prior discussion that as we are getting closer to land..history with this system is that the land helps strengthen this storm. So that is my updated thoughts !

Will take a closer look at things after getting a little sleep!

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

June 29th Daily weather Discussion

This discussion may not occur certain nights while any extreme weather is occurring such as Tropical Storm, Hurricanes etc. So if you do not see it posted that is the reason why.

High temperature on the 27th @ KABE was 91 degrees

High temperature on the 28th @ KABE was 91 degrees.

As the cold front continues to work thru the region today there will continue to be a chance of scattered showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. Otherwise across the area skies will be mostly cloudy but then become partly sunny. This cold front is going to bring into the area much more comfortable weather conditions with temperatures going back down to the seasonal range to below normal range before a potential warmer air mass works back into the region!

Temperatures today will be in the 60s and 70s for most of the Northeast with the exception of Southern New England where it will be in the 80s to around 90. Elsewhere temperatures will be in the 80s and you will also notice the humidity level starting to decrease across the region.

Thoughts & Forecast On Alex

While Tropical Storm Alex has been slowly intensifying..it still has a rather ragged appearance. This could be attributed to it has been sustaining 10-20 knots of shear..it since the beginning has had a rather large, broad circulation center..the shear size of the storm and the fact that the anti cyclone is displaced to the west. Also in the vicinity of Alex off to the Northeast is an ULL that was forecasted to lift out.

If one has been following my postings on the accuweather forum ..i mentioned that while this was back on land that it would take some time for this system to really organize and get its act together. As one can tell, it has been intensifying but at a rather slow rate. Ocean heat content that its been over is on the low side & also the speed of the storm can be attributed to this not intensifying quicker. Alex had basically stalled for some time yesterday and that causes upwelling of cooler waters from underneath.

Alex has been the type of storm that seems to pulse around the diurnal max and then that convective pulse tends to weaken afterwards & then it basically repeats that process!

A mid level ridge is strengthening to the north of Alex and this has caused Alex to take a turn back towards the NW and as this ridge strengthens this should cause Alex to turn even more towards the WNW.

As far as strength of the system. Majority of your models do not show much more intensification. NHC is expecting intensification over the next 48 hrs. At this point and time i think there is about a 70 % chance that Alex will become a Category 1 hurricane before landfall. That leaves a 30 % chance of Alex staying a TS. I do not think that Alex will become a Cat 2 or a Major hurricane because one thing that has been consistent is that Alex has not been able to sustain any convection on the western side. At the time of this forecast that is still the case.

Here is what I am thinking approximately as far as landfall for Alex.

Alexforecast

Once again..at landfall the thinking is that there is a 70% chance that Alex will become a Cat 1 hurricane. The current thinking is that landfall will be to the south of the US..However…anyone in S Texas should still be concerned because of storm surge and the extent of the tropical storm winds. Stay tuned for further updates!

Sunday, June 27, 2010

June 27th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on the 26th @ KABE was 89 degrees.

Today and monday are going to be the two warmest days of this most recent spell of hot weather with temperatures generally in the 80s to the north and the 90s elsewhere but with the DP’s the real feel will feel like 100 +.

Weather wise its going to be a partly sunny day but with a stationary front across the area and some decent severe weather Parameters in place..We could end up receiving some severe thunderstorms which would contain very heavy rain and gusty winds along with the potential for some hail.

SPC has the area in a slight risk and R.W.S has put out there severe outlook. 2 % tornado risk with the SPC over a large area but the greatest area at risk would appear based off the NAM to be around the syracuse area.

So keep your eye to the sky! Stay safe in case any severe weather heads towards your neighborhood!

June 27th Severe Potential

Been paying majority of attention to Tropical Storm Alex that I almost forgot that there could be severe weather tomorrow. So taking a moment to step aside from Alex to bring this severe weather outlook to attention.

Stationary front across the area may help serve as a focus line for some shower and thunderstorm activity . There will also be an MCS moving across MI and another MCS could potentially develop later on today as well.

CAPE is actually looking pretty decent with levels of 1000-2500

Lift index looks to be –4 to around –7

Dew points will be relatively in the 60s and 70s

Temperatures will be relatively in the 80s over NY state and 90s south…

Shear looks to be between 30-40 knots (marginal)

Lapse rates are marginal at less then 6.0

Surface Storm Relative Helicity is about 200-300 m2s2  around the Syracuse area so that area could potentially see a possible tornado.

Otherwise ..the main threat looks to be wind and small hail. I do think the better chance for severe weather will come on monday. We should have severe weather in the region today but the better chance will be on monday..

627

Saturday, June 26, 2010

June 26th Weather Discussion

High temperature the 24th @ KABE was 92 degrees

High temperature the 26th was 86 degrees @ KABE

AN official heatwave is 3 days in a row of temperatures at 90 or above ..Since June 17th ABE has not had any type of official heatwave despite the above normal temperatures but thats about to end soon.

Today should be a partly sunny day at least for the early portion of the day ..from at least PA on south..however N of that region there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms. As the day progresses those showers and thunderstorms are going to become possible in PA and NJ as well.

Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s thru out most of the NE with the exception of SNE where it will be in the 80s and south of there in the 80s to potentially the lower 90s!

Friday, June 25, 2010

Invest 93 L Ramblings!

Pretty much over the last 24-48 hrs I have been picking up a lot of slack for mentioning that INVEST 93 L is not moving towards the NW as NHC is mentioning but rather has been moving towards the SW.

It has been debated all day,I have been told that i was seeing optical illusions…Look at this image

06zatcfearlyinvest1

The above is the early 6 Z statistical models. One of those models is called the XTRP. Notice two things..the white line is the previous track..notice how its been shifting SW…now look for the XTRP. The XTRP is simply a model that extrapolates out the current movement and plots the track of where it would be going.

Now, the question becomes with the present movement that the XTRP is showing would this system be headed towards the YUCATAN? That would be the complete opposite direction. Also would be a pretty nifty trick.

Folks, readers of this blog..I am not seeing optical illusions but instead pointing out simply what is happening and despite what the guys see at NHC as NW movement ..there is not presently any NW movement or else the XTRP would be going on a NW line towards the YUCATAN!

Here at R.W.S one of the goals that I have personally set is to provide the readers and those wanting and willing to learn the most accurate information and in the easiest and simplest language to understand. There really is not a need to get all technical when you are wanting people to learn from what you are trying to put across!

And as that is one of the goals, this means that if R.W.S has to go against the grain of NHC, HPC, NWS or any other professional weather agency, we will continue to do that but it will ALWAYS be backed up with real time data..be it satellite or radar or models, steering currents etc.

That was my promise and goal and I intend on keeping that promise!

NOTE: I will not be doing the daily discussion tonight so this post gets read!

Thursday, June 24, 2010

June 24th Daily Discussion

High temperature on the 23rd @ KABE was 90 degrees. This is the 2nd day since the 17th that ABE has hit 90 degrees. Today should end up being the third day and perhaps the final day for some time.

Today is going to be a scorcher. Humidity will be high leading to high dewpoints which is going to make the high temperatures in the 90s to the south feel more like 100. Meanwhile to the north temperatures will again be in the 60s and 70s.

A cold front and trough working its way thru the area in combination with the daytime heating could lead to the potential of severe thunderstorms which could end up on the nasty side with wind damage, hail damage and perhaps even an isolated tornado. Heavy rains as well.

One thing that I am keeping an eye on is an MCS that is moving thru now and could potentially put a cap on to just how much severe occurs because of helping to stabilize the atmosphere! If that becomes the case will mention more later in the morning hours!

June 24th Severe Weather Chances

 

A little mixed feelings on the severe weather threat for today! Shear is actually pretty decent modeled to be between 30 and 50 knots with CAPE from 1000-2000 ..Lift index primarily -2 to -4 . Dewpoints will be in the 60-70 range. However..lapse rates look to be pretty meager. Temperatures will also be in the 90s and there is an advancing cold front and trough which will serve as the trigger.
Two things that kind of complicate the forecast are the MCS which is moving thru now and its associated cloudiness! This could serve to once again put a bit of a damper on this outlook...
Pretty much yesterday this was a concern i pointed out and in PA there were not that many reports when one stops and considers they were in a 30-45 % zone for wind damage..So there is a possibility that this could once again help to stabilize the atmosphere.

 

 

624

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

June 23rd Daily Weather Discussion

June 22nd high temperature @ KABE was 85 degrees which was 5 degrees above normal. Today is going to be another day that is well above normal and for the most part will have sunny skies across the area to begin with. Off to the north into NNE there is rain and thundershowers that will continue thru out the morning hours. Off to the west we will have an advancing cold front and also early in the day a advancing warm front. These two fronts are going to be responsible for creating some severe weather off to our west. The eastern areas should be relatively convective free.

Real wx service is a little concerned about the timing of the cold front being faster then modeled which potentially could inhibit severe weather but at this point and time it is just something that we will be keeping an eye on.

Temperatures today will be in the 60s-70s in Northern New England and pretty much south of there in the 90s with higher humidity due to the warm front moving thru. Today clouds will or should not prohibit the temperature from rising.

June 23rd Potential For Severe Weather

623

The one concern that I do have is that the cold front is not suppose to be moving thru the area until wed night. However...looking at the image below..

sat_sfc_map

Could a faster timing end up being a concern? One thing for certain at least across the southern areas there is not a cloud to be found..so unlike yesterday this should allow plenty of daytime heating..

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

June 22nd Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature June 21st at KABE was 86 degrees which was 6 degrees above the normal value of 80 degrees.

Today there is going to be a warm front approaching the region and this warm front is going to be accompanied by an MCS which has the potential to bring rainfall and perhaps some heavy rainfall in the evening along with the potential for some severe weather. RWS has issued a severe weather outlook for the region but currently not anticipating a widespread outbreak due to marginal severe parameters, current cloud cover in place and showers that are popping up across parts of the region this early morning. However,any storms that become severe will produce winds in excess of 60 MPH and very heavy rains. Increased PWATS across the region. So tropical downpours are possible.

High temps today will be 70s north to 80s south with 90s south of PA possible

June 22nd Severe Weather Potential

Severe weather outlook
Potential inhibitor to severe weather maybe cloud cover that is currently in place along with some showers that are starting to show up in parts of PA...
Dew points look to be in the 60s and temperatures look to be generally in the 80s across the region.
A warm front should be approaching the region but current surface map actually shows that front as stationary and stalled for the time being. Winds are currently coming out of the NNE at this point and time.
LI looking at the SREF seems to be around the -2 to -4 and CAPE looks to be around 500-1500
Lapse rates look to be around 6.0 to 6.5 and shear looks to be around 30-35 Knots...
I think the most concern is going to come in later tonight where the region could pick up a decent amount of rain between 1-2 inches.
Over all with looking at satellite and radar at the present time am not expecting anything to widespread. Main concern with any storms should be winds and heavy rains!

622

Monday, June 21, 2010

June 21st Daily Weather Discussion

Missed out on the 20th due to having pc issues but the high temperature on the 20th @ KABE was 90 degrees! This was 10 degrees above average.

Today is going to be another warm day with mainly sunny skies across the region. However..temperatures today will not be as warm as yesterday across most regions. Temperatures will be in the 70s north into Maine and the 80s south of there. Some locales may touch 90 or the lower 90s. Mainly extreme SE PA, southern NJ and south.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

June 19th Daily Weather Discussion

June 18th High temperature @ KABE was 83 degrees. This was slightly above normal.

Today’s weather is going to be warmer then yesterday. However there is a weak advancing cold front heading towards the region that may spark some showers and thunderstorms across the western into perhaps the central Part of the state of PA and areas further to the north! Some of these storms in Western NY and western PA may be on the severe side but we here at R.W.S are not expecting a widespread outbreak.

For the eastern side of the region can expect mostly sunny skies and warm conditions and an increase in humidity levels. There could be perhaps a shower later in the night if anything can survive over the mountains.

Temperatures today will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 across the region!

Severe Weather June 19th?

There will be no severe weather along the eastern side of the mid atlantic or the Northeast. Any severe weather that does occur will be along the western side of the mid atlantic and the NE.

Once again, not to impressed with severe weather for today across the region.
Looking at the SREF...shear is not all that impressive and when the best shear arrives is in the time frame after 03 Z on early sunday morning ..
So shear is at best between 30-40 knots...
CAPE looks to be 500-1500 (though stronger over parts of Ohio)
LI between -2 to -8 depending on your location..
Lapse rates are decent 6.0-7.0
Dew points around 60-70
Trigger ..an advancing cold front ..however..this cold front is more along the weak side .
NAM reflectivity does not really indicate all that much happening or occurring either as far as severe would be concerned..

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_18HR_SURF

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_21HR_SURF

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_24HR_SURF

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_27HR_SURF

619

Friday, June 18, 2010

June 18th Daily Weather Discussion

June 17th High temperature @ KABE was 74 degrees. This was actually 6 degrees below the normal high for this time of the year.

Today is actually going to be the start of warmer temperatures once again and each day is going to increase in humidity! Today should still be relatively pleasant though but as the weekend comes and potentially sunday things should get a tad bit hot and sticky!

Mostly sunny skies will be the rule across the region today.

Temperatures will generally be in the 80s from north to south! Some places in SNE may actually touch 90.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Invest 92- What Happened?

The second attempt at a tropical system has taken place over the past several days in the Atlantic.National hurricane center at one point and time even classified this system with a code red thinking it would develop. Taking into consideration the above normal waters was probably what led them to think that this could develop into something stronger. Joe Bastardi also thought this would become the first named system of 2010. What happened?

Invest 92 L is a perfect example of what shear, dry air and a TUTT can do to a developing system.

You will often see Real Wx Services talking about and posting the current shear and SAL maps because these two things can have a hindering effect on tropical systems.

92 L was different in the sense that it developed much further south at like 6 N but that was just another indicator that this system from Day 1 in combination with the shear, dry air and TUTT did not have a chance at developing into anything other then a weak tropical wave.

Invest 92 L developing when it did is NOT an indicator of an active season, just as 92 L dissipating is not an indicator on a inactive hurricane season.

I have been stressing the need for a bermuda ridge needed to set up in place.  This has not happened yet. Every time there has been an attempt a strong trough with an attending cold front has come thru into the NE. Until that occurs things will be a bit on the slow side.

Currently looking at the 2nd half of July beginning of August for this to occur. Until then expectation is for slow tropical season on the side of the Atlantic!

June 17 Daily Weather Discussion

June 16th high temperature @ KABE was 75 degrees which was 4 degrees below normal.

Today will be a day of different types of weather depending where you are. From NY and north you will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms thru a good portion of the day. Further to the south it will be partly to mostly sunny.

Temperatures are going to be more on the pleasant side today with highs in the 60s and 70s with lower 80s south of PA…An absolutely splendid day before the humidity moves back in.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

June 16th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on June 15th @ KABE was 82 degrees. This was slightly above normal for this time of the year.

Today will be generally the opposite of yesterday as far as temperatures where it will either be seasonal to slightly below seasonal for most areas.

Weather wise clouds will be on the increase with the chance of showers and thunderstorms on the increase as well! Best chance of severe weather will be over MD and points south. Otherwise convective type rains and some heavy will be the weather story of the day!

Temperatures as noted will also be on the cooler side with the 60s and 70s to the north into PA with the 80s generally from extreme southern Pa and points southwards.

June 16th Severe Potentials

CAPE 1000-3000 Depending on location
LI -2 to -8 depending on location
Triggers: Advancing warm front followed by advancing cold front
The above are the pros..
However, once again as it seems to be the case lately the cons to severe weather would be lack of sufficient shear. Shear is only around 30-40 knots and where the best shear is are the worst severe parameters such as CAPE & LI for example.
The other hindrance to severe weather is weak lapse rates of only 5.5-6.0
So essentially I think there is going to be a better threat for convective rainfall then there is severe weather but isolated severe weather will be possible but I am not sure ATM if the slight risk that SPC has will actually verify. I think the best chance for severe weather may actually be in VA and south.

616

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

June 15th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature June 14th @ KABE was 80 degrees which was 1 degree above seasonal level of 79 degrees.

Today is going to be a relatively Partly sunny day across the area and quite pleasant weather conditions due to much more comfortable temperatures in place. There could be some scattered showers effecting western into central Pa during the morning into the afternoon but the more steadier rains will hold off until probably early morning wednesday..

Temperatures today will be in the 70s to lower 80s from north to south but with much more comfortable humidity levels.

Monday, June 14, 2010

June 14th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature on June 13th @ KABE was 86 degrees.

If this sounds like a broken record well it essentially is. Todays weather once again is going to be similar to the last two days in which we have partly sunny skies with the chance of convective showers and thunderstorms. Yesterday we ended up with about .74 inches of rain from two separate down pours.

Also as similar to yesterday temperatures today will once again be similar with highs in the 60s-70s to the north and the 80s further south with some locales once again maybe approaching the lower 90s in Southern PA and southwards!

Sunday, June 13, 2010

June 13th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature June 12th @ KABE was 86 degrees. Severe weather basically failed to materialize with only less then a handful of reports in PA. Definitely the slight risk by SPC was not warranted.

Today essentially is going to be pretty much like yesterday with partly sunny skies and the chance for showers and thunderstorms with maybe some isolated severe into eastern Pa and NJ and then south of there with the potential. Otherwise it will be sunny and warm..

Temperatures once again will be in the 60s-70s N and then 80s south with even some lower 90s in SE PA and SNJ and south.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

June 12th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature June 11th at KABE was 78 degrees! This was considered a seasonal day as far as the high temperature is concerned.

Today will be one of those days where with the day time heating and a area of low pressure moving towards the vicinity where we could end up with partly cloudy skies with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. I really do not think any storms will be severe on the eastern part of PA but in central and western Pa there could be some isolated severe storms. Rainfall where it does fall could range on the order of .50 inches and of course  heavier rainfall in any severe storms.

Temperatures today will be in the 60a-70s north and 80s to the south.

Friday, June 11, 2010

June 11th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature June 10th was 82 degrees @ KABE

Today is going to be a relatively quiet weather day with partly to mostly sunny skies across the region with pleasant temperatures to go along with it.

Todays high temperatures are going to be in the 70s to lower 80s. Today will be one of those days that you can just sit outside and enjoy!

Thursday, June 10, 2010

June 10th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature June 9th was well below normal at 60 degrees which was 18 degrees below normal.

Today is going to be a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers from about central NY state and northwards. There could be an isolated shower further south but for the most part it should be dry.

Temperatures today will also rebound compared to yesterday with highs in the 60s NY state Northwards and in the 70s to lower 80s elsewheres..

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

June 9th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature at KABE for June 8th was 73 degrees. Pretty much the cooler weather had arrived as anticipated and expected and today is going to be no different. With the trough over the east and northeast we will also be experiencing rain and possible thunderstorms thru out the region. Temperatures once again though are going to remain on the cool side and in some locations be as much as 10 degrees or more below normal.

High temperatures are only going to be in the 60s thru out the region. So if you are heading outside you may want a spring jacket and an umbrella

Monday, June 7, 2010

June 7th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature june 6th was 85 degrees which was above normal for this time of the year.

Today is going to be a mostly sunny day after some early morning showers across portions of PA and perhaps northern new england. Today is also going to be a much cooler day then what it has been and the start of a 4-6 day stretch of cooler and pleasant temperatures

Todays high temps will be in the 60s to 70s from north to south!

Sunday, June 6, 2010

June 6th Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature June 5th was 86 degrees which was 8 degrees above normal.

Today is shaping up to be a partly to mostly cloudy day due to an advancing cold front. Out ahead of this cold front is showers and thunderstorms and its being accompanied by some pretty strong Severe weather parameters with CAPE values of 2000-3000 and sufficient lift and more then sufficient shear across the region. What all this means is that there is an increased risk for tornados and wind damage across a good part of the eastern side of the east coast.

Two potential inhibitors to severe weather are the convection and moisture that is going thru the Great Lakes region now and spreading into NW PA & NY State. This could cause clouds to be in place which could limit the day time heating.

The 2nd thing is relatively poor lapse rates.  With sufficient shear in pplace however…this could be enough to overcome the poor lapse rates. However..its something that will have to be watched along with the convective moisture moving towards the region.

Temperatures today will only be in the 50s to 60s from Northern Ny and points NE into Northern New England. Southern New England and South temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s.

If you are out and about today please keep an eye to the sky cause the potential is there for some nasty weather!

Saturday, June 5, 2010

June 6th Severe Potential

 

Even though I am going to be away from the computer starting later today into the day on tuesday.. I wanted to issue a map for sundays severe weather!

severe outloook

Will be back on sometime tuesday for verification and on my own pc! smile.gif
Stay safe out there over the next two days although i think as far as the mid atlantic into the Ne is concerned sunday will be more of the day for severe weather.

Friday, June 4, 2010

June 4th Daily Weather Discussion

High temperature on June 3rd @ KABE was 85 degrees which is 8 degrees above normal.

Today will be a partly sunny day with some scattered showers from about SNE and points south basically. However for the most part the day will be rain free and will be a pretty nice spring day.

Temperatures will be in the 70s north to the 80s south and perhaps some locales in S PA and south reaching the lower 90s.

For those waiting for the heat to break this will occur over the weekend! Stay tuned!

June 5th Severe Potential

june5th

This time the shear looks better but we have some poor lapse rates!

Thursday, June 3, 2010

June 3rd Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature @ KABE June 2nd was 87 degrees which was once again above normal.

Today is going to be a warm and humid day and in some cases may feel on the hot side. It will definitely feel more like a middle of summer day then a spring day. Skies will be partly sunny and with the daytime heating and certain severe weather Parameters in place there is a chance for severe thunderstorms with a chance at some wind, hail and even an isolated tornado effecting the region from south of PA along the coast into SNE

Temperatures will be only in the 60s in Maine , 70s in NNY and NNE and then south of there temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s!

If you are out and about and severe weather looks to be looming ahead of you …seek shelter immediately!

June 3rd Severe Weather Potential

 june3rd

CAPE  1000-2000

LI –2 to – 6

Lapse Rates 6.0-6.5

Shear once again is kind of marginal ..So this could be a downfall for severe weather.

Temperatures 80s to 90

Trigger a approaching cold front

Dewpoints in the 60s ….hot and humid weather…

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

June 2nd 2010 Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature June 1st @ KABE was 83 degrees which was slightly above normal.

Today is going to be another warm day with the possibility of showers and scattered thunderstorms over portions of the area. However, for the most part mostly sunny skies and warm conditions should be the rule.

Most of the showers and thunderstorms should hold off until later at night…perhaps even after midnight!

Temperatures will be in the 70s to the north to the 80s to the south.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

June 1st Daily Weather Discussion

The high temperature for the last day of May @ KABE ended up being 89 degrees which was once again an above normal day! Today will essentially be no different from yesterday! An advancing cold front thru the region that will actually start to retreat as a warm front could once again trigger off some showers and thunderstorms of which some of those storms could be severe! Any storms would mainly contain gusty winds and very heavy rain! If you do not experience any of these storms then you are going to be dealing with warm and partly to mostly sunny skies

Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s from N Pa and points north and east and then in the lower 80s elsewhere!

June 1st Severe Weather Possibility

june1st

Another factor that is not included in the image above is dependent on how long it takes for the current moisture moving thru to move out and whether or not the area can get any clearing established!