A little mixed feelings on the severe weather threat for today! Shear is actually pretty decent modeled to be between 30 and 50 knots with CAPE from 1000-2000 ..Lift index primarily -2 to -4 . Dewpoints will be in the 60-70 range. However..lapse rates look to be pretty meager. Temperatures will also be in the 90s and there is an advancing cold front and trough which will serve as the trigger.
Two things that kind of complicate the forecast are the MCS which is moving thru now and its associated cloudiness! This could serve to once again put a bit of a damper on this outlook...
Pretty much yesterday this was a concern i pointed out and in PA there were not that many reports when one stops and considers they were in a 30-45 % zone for wind damage..So there is a possibility that this could once again help to stabilize the atmosphere.
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