Been paying majority of attention to Tropical Storm Alex that I almost forgot that there could be severe weather tomorrow. So taking a moment to step aside from Alex to bring this severe weather outlook to attention.
Stationary front across the area may help serve as a focus line for some shower and thunderstorm activity . There will also be an MCS moving across MI and another MCS could potentially develop later on today as well.
CAPE is actually looking pretty decent with levels of 1000-2500
Lift index looks to be –4 to around –7
Dew points will be relatively in the 60s and 70s
Temperatures will be relatively in the 80s over NY state and 90s south…
Shear looks to be between 30-40 knots (marginal)
Lapse rates are marginal at less then 6.0
Surface Storm Relative Helicity is about 200-300 m2s2 around the Syracuse area so that area could potentially see a possible tornado.
Otherwise ..the main threat looks to be wind and small hail. I do think the better chance for severe weather will come on monday. We should have severe weather in the region today but the better chance will be on monday..
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