Saturday, June 19, 2010

Severe Weather June 19th?

There will be no severe weather along the eastern side of the mid atlantic or the Northeast. Any severe weather that does occur will be along the western side of the mid atlantic and the NE.

Once again, not to impressed with severe weather for today across the region.
Looking at the SREF...shear is not all that impressive and when the best shear arrives is in the time frame after 03 Z on early sunday morning ..
So shear is at best between 30-40 knots...
CAPE looks to be 500-1500 (though stronger over parts of Ohio)
LI between -2 to -8 depending on your location..
Lapse rates are decent 6.0-7.0
Dew points around 60-70
Trigger ..an advancing cold front ..however..this cold front is more along the weak side .
NAM reflectivity does not really indicate all that much happening or occurring either as far as severe would be concerned..

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_18HR_SURF

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_21HR_SURF

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_24HR_SURF

MOD_REFC_NAT_NAM_00Z_27HR_SURF

619

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