June 30th Severe Weather Outlook

Let me start this off by saying I hope this is one outlook that i was not stretched far enough to the NORTH..However..with that said the guidance basically does not bring any meaningful precipitation much further north then what we outlined.. One thing for certain is it will be another HOT DAY. Temperatures will be from 80-100 and that does not include the heat index factoring in... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Dew Points will be in the range of 60-70 across the zone.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngCAPE 500 to about 4000 depending on where you are located..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png...LIFT Index is 0 to about negative 12 depending on where you are located... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.pngSHEAR depending on where you reside will be 30-50 knots...http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ..ENERGY HELICITY Index is around 1-2 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ...HELICITY however is not that impressive.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. At the surface we have a cold front moving across the region now..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif .. This cold front looks to stall across southern PA before proceeding south wards..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif ..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif An impulse or MCS ..potential Derecho will be moving along that front..However since the front is expected to drop south this should take the cluster of storms to the south as well. So we really are not looking for to much storm activity into East central PA and NE PA to NYC.. Now it is entirely possible (these things tend to have a mind of there own) that this could end up being further north but with guidance not supporting it we are not going to show it.. Here is the NAM at 8 PM http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamreflectivity_NE024.gif In the surface map form it looks like this http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif ..This would be 2 AM http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06030.gif You can see how this supports further south.. and well if you look at the GFS for the same time http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif 8 PM and now 2 AM http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06030.gif You can see basically the same theme.. With the EHI at 1-2 we are going with a 2 % tornado chance anywhere in the zone and winds will be the main threat!

Tonight's edition of the 5 day forecast for the Allentown Bethlehem Easton region

Tonight's edition of the 5 day forecast for the Allentown Bethlehem Easton region includes a peak at day 6 which is the 4th of July! From all of us at Down To Earth to all of yours we wish you a very glorious 4th of July!

Allentown Bethlehem Easton Area 5 Day forecast resumed!

June 28th Severe Weather Outlook

June 28th Severe Weather Outlook
First of all let me start this off by saying in the east it is going to become much warmer today and in the central part of the USA and in some of the severe zone it is going to be down right HOT. (That may be an understatement)..
Temperatures are going to be from 80 (coolest) to about 110 degrees.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Folks this by itself is some serious heat and we can not stress enough to keep yourself in Air Conditioning and avoid being out doors if possible. If you must go outside make sure that you have water on you and keep yourself hydrated. Same would go for your pets .
In addition it will be very humid with dew points in the 60s and 70s.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
Now..we think for the majority of the day that the region is going to be CAPPED and the severe will probably end up occurring later in the evening and in the overnight period.
The Parameters in place such as CAPE are pretty excellent with 500 to as much as 4000
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX is from 0 to about negative 12 so we have decent lift in the atmosphere..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR looks to be from 30-50 knots...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY HELICITY is actually off the hook with locations to 6.00
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Some locations of HELICITY are above 300 but they are isolated area...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/28/00/NAM_221_2012062800_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
At the surface we have a cold front working its way to the SE from the NW..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif
Once again we think the problem will be that there will pretty much be a CAP in place during the day and a lack of moisture. However if this CAP were to break we could be talking about tornadic potential mainly in Iowa east to Ohio. To be on the safe side in case the CAP does break..we are going to go with a 2% in that area...
These are the precipitation maps off the NAM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06018.gif 2 PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif 8 PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06030.gif 2 AM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06036.gif 8 AM
Now remember that the images indicate what has fallen by that time period. So the image for 18 Z means the precipitation falls between 8 AM and 2 PM etc..
This is the GFS for the same time periods..
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06018.gif 2PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif 8 PM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06030.gif 2 AM
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06036.gif 8 AM
So again you can see not much moisture shown to work with during the day but the threat looks to come in in the late evening time period and overnight. This may turn out to be a good thing with the parameters that are other wise in place..
We will be around from about noon on all day to provide coverage....

Final Update On Tropical Depression Debby!

Water Vapor , Visible and Rainbow images of Debby. Debby has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as of earlier yesterday evening. 

The most recent information from the National Hurricane Center is as follows:

.CENTER OF DEBBY TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO RESUME AN EASTWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT...

---

11:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 26
Location: 29.0°N 82.8°W
Moving: SE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

As we explained in the last update Debby was pretty much experiencing an influx of dry air into the center and high amounts of shear.. The shear continues to be a problem with Debby along with the fact that she has made landfall..

Here is the latest shear image and it is showing anywhere from 20 to as much as 30 knots of shear around the center of circulation.

On the steering currents above you are essentially seeing Debby between a ridge to the west and ridging to the east with a trough across the NE and just underneath this trough. However, this trough has created a weakness in the ridge in which Debby will be able to move thru and the trough should cause Debby to take a east and then ENE to NE track.

Once Debby re-emerges off the coast of Florida we expect her to intensify to a Tropical Storm again due to the warmer Gulf Stream Waters.

All guidance is essentially in agreement this morning with Debby passing close to but far enough away from the Carolinas to have minimal impact.

Further up the Atlantic we expect Debby to have no impact on Nova Scotia.

Latest images above do indicate some colder cloud tops so it is possible that at the very least Debby is maintaining her depression status if not potentially re organizing.

This is the final track and the final update on Debby. Starting tomorrow night we will be going back to severe weather and the daily 5 day forecast.

Tropical Storm Debby Update #3

The above is a most recent water vapor image of Tropical Storm Debby. You can tell looking at this image that Debby continues to be plagued by dry air. Debby also continues to be plagued by shear. These two ingredients of dry air and shear are hindering any development from reoccurring and in addition to these two factors with the slow movement upwelling of cooler waters and close proximity to land.

Present movement of Debby is towards the East and it continues to move slowly. We are going to post a image of the steering currents which helps to explain what is happening..

Debby is moving in between ridging to the west and the subtropical high or ridging to the east. This has created what we have labeled as a pathway to escape where it will be moving east across Florida but then it will start to move towards the NE..

Guidance tonight is divergent in timing and somewhat in speed as well. We are going to start with the two models that stand out the most . This would be the UKMET/GGEM.

UKMET basically is in agreement with the GFS/ECM as far as track is concerned ..however it is much faster then those two models.

This is the GGEM at 108..Here after the GGEM becomes kind of suspicious. From 114-132 it looks like it opens up and weakens by 132 though it closes back off again off the GA coast. Which then moves inland over GA at 144 to move slightly east by 156 and then stall there thru 168. By 180 moves slightly more east and intensifies and then stalls in that location thru 228 (while deepening) and then moves out to sea or NE by 240 hours and down to 989 MBS.

This seems to be out of place in reference to timing and as well tracking.

The two models are essentially in agreement above. So it would appear that if the above guidance is correct that Debby is going to not pose to much of a threat to the Carolinas.

This is the rest of the model guidance as of the 6 Z runs..

You can see what they essentially due is move Debby east across Florida and then towards the NE to the east of the Carolina Coastline.

The above image is the GFS ensembles and you can see that the majority of them take this almost on a ENE track..again away from the Carolinas.

With the close proximity to land..the dry air & the increasing shear we are not anticipating Debby to gain much strength before making landfall in Florida and crossing Florida. Debby may actually decrease to a depression once over Florida but has the potential to re intensify once back over the Gulf stream off the coast of Florida. It is still in the realms of possibilities that Debby could become a Cat 1 Hurricane once emerging back over the waters.

In the mean time Debby will continue to produce heavy rains across the state of Florida. Evacuations in some locations are going on so please pay attention to your favorite source of weather.

We will have another full update about 24 hrs. from now that will include the final track for Debby.

Tropical Storm Debby Update # 2

The above is the latest image of Tropical Storm Debby. As you can see , at the present time Tropical storm Debby is being plagued by dry air intruding into the system so it looks really disorganized at the present time. Another problem that Debby is facing is 10-20 knots of shear..so she also has a sheared appearance..

We want to start off by looking at the current information on the system as of 2 AM EST..

.DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

---

1:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 25
Location: 28.6°N 85.8°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

The pressure has come up 2 mbs since the earlier update in the early evening. This is indicative of the dry air and the shear that is currently effecting the system. We also want to take a look at National Hurricanes track (which will be updated in about 1 hour from now)

Now if you recall with our last update we said that the National Hurricane Center at some point was going to come to the east into Florida because the guidance was all but three models indicating this happening. This is exactly what NHC has done..

The above is the latest radar image and you can see the effect that the dry air and shear is having in there is not much convection associated with the system around the Center of Circulation. Looking at visible and water vapor image you would get the impression that this HAS the potential to just become a remnant low. However..guidance is not suggesting this.

Guidance has become somewhat more interesting tonight as in the ECM has now given into the GFS with taking this system slowly across Florida and emerging off the NE side of Florida. The GFS also shows this happening as well.. The difference between the two models is just one of timing as the GFS is faster (sometimes its bias) and the ECM is slower. However..both models agree that the trough is not going to catch Debby and that Debby will get trapped underneath a building ridge..

Steering currents currently are very weak which is why right now Debby is stationary but as the ridge pushes towards the east this should start Debby on a NNE track once again taking her across Florida..Lets  look at the guidance..

You can see that the GFS brings out Debby on the Eastern Side of Florida and then moves up along the Eastern Seaboard to just off the Carolinas and this would be in Hurricane status..

Lets look at the ECM ..

As you can see looking at the ECM it is in fair agreement with the GFS , difference being timing and this becomes a close call for the NE . However, both models agree on we will be dealing with Debby at least over the next 8 to perhaps as much as 10 days and both models have Debby becoming a Hurricane with the ECM being a MAJOR Hurricane.

For now though, instead of concentrating on the longer range we will worry about the short range and that is the amount of rain that will be falling across the Florida area over the next 5 days..

The one model to stand out from this that we will view as the outlier is the GGEM which also takes it across FL but then stalls it off the NE coast of FL and then drifts it back to the west southwest over Florida.

So with the guidance in relatively good agreement we feel that NHC will end up sometime in the near future coming around to this track over the next 5 days..

Right now as we said though the main concerns are flooding rains and in addition to that tornados being spawned across Florida..

Interests from Florida to the Carolinas need to pay attention to this storm.

Tropical Storm Debby Update

Lets start off by looking at the current NHC update for 1:00 AM CDT

.DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
1:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 24
Location: 26.8°N 87.3°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

And the expected track with NHC

They really do not show any due North movement as is occurring on their expected track but rather a NW and then almost directly west movement.

Interestingly enough we find the following in guidance..

At the most here we find about 3 tracks that would support a more western track but only 2 of the three support a virtual due west .. Lets look at some more models..

The GFS

The GGEM

The UKMET

As you can see MAJORITY of the guidance indicates more along the lines of anywhere from LA to Florida seems to be the target zone.

Steering currents show that Debby is essentially trapped between two ridges. A ridge to the Northwest and a ridge to the east.. So this is why we are seeing a drifting motion towards the North… and you can see in the time that we posted the image above that the ridge or high pressure has only strengthened..

Finally the ECM has come in and we see the following on the ECM..

Compare this to 12 Z..

Major shift to the NE..

So with the overwhelming support of the guidance, the strength of the ridging in place ..we feel that Tropical Storm Debby will be restricted to a slow North/ Northeast movement and that anywhere from LA to the Western Panhandle of Florida will feel the impact of this system..

We feel there is very little to support the track shown by NHC above..

With the slow movement it is very possible with the warm waters over the GOM that Debby could reach hurricane status..

It would appear that all interests from LA to FL should stay tuned for the latest on Debby!

Updated 5 Day Forecast for ABE area! 6/22/12

Updated 5 Day forecast for the Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton Airport region!

Invest 96 L Thoughts June 21st 2012

The above are visible image and water vapor image of 96 L. Right now the system is not very impressive. It does have a high chance of developing over the next 48 hours . The question is whether or not this system can over come the shear in place.

Generally when you have a cyclone developing you want a anti cyclone to be right over top of it. This is not the case..

This feature right now is displaced far to the Southwest. At the present time the GOM is currently covered by wind shear of 10 knots to as high as 50 knots. Unlike Severe thunderstorms which need wind shear to develop..WIND shear is not good for developing tropical systems.

There are a few other problems that this system is looking at . Presently the Upper level divergence and lower level convergence for this system is not that favorable.

Still yet another issue that has to be overcome is we are dealing with a very broad area of circulation. You can see this looking at the vorticity.

Keep in mind the broader and more elongated a system is the longer it will take to spin up a circulation center.

All guidance pretty much agrees on this developing into the next named Tropical system. The question becomes where does this track to after it does develop?

Unfortunately, until we have a center of circulation it pretty much is up in the air. Anywhere from Florida to TX is fair game for the potential of this tropical system. We do feel it should develop within the next 48 hrs. and get classified.

Once this develops that circulation center the models will be able to get a better handle on where this will end up heading.

Interests along the gulf coast should stay tuned . Right now the system does not look the greatest but this is more then likely due to the diurnal minimum taking place…