June 13th Severe Weather Outlook And Discussion

June 13th Severe Weather Outlook And Discussion
Lets start off by looking at the temperatures across the region which once again are forecasted to be a very warm to hot day with temperatures in the 70-90 + degree range!
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to it being warm to hot temperature wise it will continue to be a muggy and sticky, humid day with dew points in the upper 50s to upper 60s..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE
CAPE or instability across the region ranges from about 500-3500 depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX
Lift index across the region is from about 0 to about negative 8. Remember if there is a lift index around 0 it means there is minimal lift in the atmosphere . The lower the numbers go the more lift in the atmosphere.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR
SHEAR across the region is sufficient enough with 30-50 knots stretching from the south to the north..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is greatest outside of the severe zone ..with the exception of Northern TX where we had the red zone labeled with yesterdays outlook..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/13/00/NAM_221_2012061300_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
Based on the EHI above we are going to go with a 2% chance of tornados and that area would stretch from the Dakotas..all the way down to Northern TX.. (again for reference the red zone from yesterdays outlook).. If the HELICITY was greater and more aligned with the EHI we would place tornado chances a little higher (5%)
A strong disturbance will be moving out of the Northern Rocky region and should move towards the Nebraska region. Accompanying this disturbance will be a cold front..
You can see what is anticipated by viewing the HPC map here..
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/95fwbgus.gif
Outside of the region mentioned above we will be dealing with Large Hail and winds! The slight risk area would be placed up near the Dakotas and perhaps to the part of TX where we highlighted yesterday. All other places would be at 5% ...