Severe Weather Outlook June 16th 2012
Well, it seems as if the hot weather is just going to continue across the middle part of the country and eventually this hot weather is going to spread towards the east as well..but for now it is in the middle part of the country that is under a heat ridge. So looking at temperatures across the severe zone we are looking at temperatures from 80 to near 100 degrees..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to the hot temperatures we are going to be looking at dew points that will make the temperature even feel hotter! Dew points will be in the 60-70 range..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F18_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
CAPE or INSTABILITY is 500-3500 depending on where you reside in the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F18_CAPE_SURFACE.png
LIFT INDEX is 0 to -12 depending on where you are across the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F18_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR is actually lacking exception being across the northern region where it is between 40 and 50 knots..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F18_SHRM_500_MB.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F18_EHI_3000_M.png
The EHI above will cause us to put a tornado zone potential of 2% from Illinois to the southern half of Iowa , all of Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas and Eastern Colorado.
HELICITY is highest across Kansas..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/16/00/NAM_221_2012061600_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
At the Surface ...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fwbgus.gif
At the surface a low pressure will be across southern Canada..From this low pressure will extend a cold front to another low over SW Kansas. A warm front, extending south , from the low in Canada will be pushing towards the North and east. It will be this frontal system that will be responsible for the severe potential !
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