Severe Weather Discussion For June 10th 2012... Lets begin by looking at the Severe Parameters along with the temperatures expected and in the mid part of the country it is going to be WARM to hot with temperatures in the 80-90 degree range..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png...DEW POINTS are going to be in the 60s . Now notice by this time the dew points are going to be much lower in the western part of the severe zone. (Dakotas Etc.) Any severe in the western part will happen in the overnight hours and early part of the day.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .... CAPE is 500 to about 2000 across the eastern part of the zone..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png .. LIFT INDEX is about 0 to negative 8 across the Eastern Part of the severe zone...http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png ...SHEAR ..notice how the greatest shear is actually back over the Dakotas region ..this is actually going to be back behind where the front is expected to be located..First link will be the SHEAR image ..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ...Now where the cold front is expected to be at 00z this evening.. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94fwbgus.gif ... ENERGY HELICITY INDEX..there is a thin line that is at 1 or above from north to south which means that Super cells are possible across the region..NE & Eastern Minnesota , Western Wisconsin, East Central Iowa. These would be the areas that we could expect to see Super Cells with the potential for Super cells to produce a Tornado. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ..HELICITY is greatest in Minnesota with 300 or above which would also point towards tornado potential. .. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/10/00/NAM_221_2012061000_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png ..With the EHI and Helicity we will place the above mentioned areas at a 2% chance of tornados. The rest of the severe zone will mainly be concerned with Large Hail and Winds and Heavy rain associated with any storm!
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