Severe Weather Discussion For June 5th 2012

Severe Weather Discussion For June 5th 2012

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Looking at the most recent surface map we see a stationary front across the TN area into the Southeast. This turns into a cold front back thru Oklahoma. This cold front will sag towards the south and will be the focus of severe weather potential across the southeast along that stationary front.
Further to the north.. this will be the same system that produced the severe weather yesterday in the region which was a trough which is negatively tilted with a surface low meandering thru MT with a strong cold front..

TEMPERATURES ..

Temperatures will be cool in the Northeast region but with a ridge in place into the south central region into the Midwest temperatures will be in the 70s to 90s range.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/05/00/NAM_221_2012060500_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

DEW POINTS
Dew points will not be as muggy as what they have been however with mainly 50s and 60s..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/05/00/NAM_221_2012060500_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

CAPE or INSTABILITY
CAPE across the region is between 500-3000 depending on where you live and reside in the severe potential zones...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/05/00/NAM_221_2012060500_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png

LIFT INDEX
Lift index is 0 to about - 8 depending on where you live / reside in the severe potential zones..

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX
Energy Helicity Index is not very high except for MT where it is at 1 or above. This would mean we put a tornado chance in MT at about 2%
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/05/00/NAM_221_2012060500_F24_EHI_1000_M.png

HELICITY
Helicity going hand in hand with the EHI and not being impressive
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/05/00/NAM_221_2012060500_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

SHEAR
Shear is greatest along the front in the SE and with the approaching front into Montana.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/05/00/NAM_221_2012060500_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png

All and all we are not very impressed with severe weather today . Montana could be the exception to that rule. Main threats will be winds and hail with tornado possible in MT..