Let me start this off by saying I hope this is one outlook that i was not stretched far enough to the NORTH..However..with that said the guidance basically does not bring any meaningful precipitation much further north then what we outlined.. One thing for certain is it will be another HOT DAY. Temperatures will be from 80-100 and that does not include the heat index factoring in... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. Dew Points will be in the range of 60-70 across the zone.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.pngCAPE 500 to about 4000 depending on where you are located..http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png...LIFT Index is 0 to about negative 12 depending on where you are located... http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.pngSHEAR depending on where you reside will be 30-50 knots...http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png ..ENERGY HELICITY Index is around 1-2 http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_EHI_3000_M.png ...HELICITY however is not that impressive.. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/30/00/NAM_221_2012063000_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png .. At the surface we have a cold front moving across the region now..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/91fwbgus.gif .. This cold front looks to stall across southern PA before proceeding south wards..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgus.gif ..http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/93fwbgus.gif An impulse or MCS ..potential Derecho will be moving along that front..However since the front is expected to drop south this should take the cluster of storms to the south as well. So we really are not looking for to much storm activity into East central PA and NE PA to NYC.. Now it is entirely possible (these things tend to have a mind of there own) that this could end up being further north but with guidance not supporting it we are not going to show it.. Here is the NAM at 8 PM http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamreflectivity_NE024.gif In the surface map form it looks like this http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif ..This would be 2 AM http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06030.gif You can see how this supports further south.. and well if you look at the GFS for the same time http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06024.gif 8 PM and now 2 AM http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06030.gif You can see basically the same theme.. With the EHI at 1-2 we are going with a 2 % tornado chance anywhere in the zone and winds will be the main threat!
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