June 3rd 2012 Severe Weather Outlook

June 3rd 2012 Severe Weather Outlook
Discussion and Parameters ...
In the severe zone the temperatures are going to be quite "hot" with TEMPERATURES between 80 and 100 perhaps some places in the 100's..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to it being "hot" it is going to feel muggy in these areas with the DEW POINTS in the 60s and 70s.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
The instability in the measurement of CAPE is quite impressive with the fuel available between 500 (marginal) and 4000 (extreme)
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
The LIFT INDEX actually is from 0 to -12 depending where you reside.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
SHEAR is sufficient at 30-50 knots..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
The greatest area of HELICITY is across eastern Kansas where it is roughly between 250-300
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_HLCY_1000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
As far as the ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is concerned.. these are some pretty high values ...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/03/00/NAM_221_2012060300_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
From Central & eastern OK to Eastern Kansas to Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa to majority of Missouri to NW ARK would be the region that you can expect to see the worst of the severe along with the potential for tornados. We would put the tornado chance in these locations between 5-10 %.
At the surface a trough located over the South central region should deepen and serve as the trigger for todays severe weather.
In addition to this will be a series of low pressure systems ..One that should be located over the Nebraska/Dakota border and another located over or just north of the OK panhandle region with a warm front extending eastward from the low pressure. This warm front will be slowly lifting north and will also enhance the potential for severe weather.