June 14th Severe Weather Outlook

June 14th Severe Weather Outlook
It seems to be a common theme in the central part of the USA to be stuck in a rut of warm to very hot weather and that will once again be the case with temperatures from 70 to into the 90s.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F18_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
In addition to this as has been the case we are talking about humid conditions with the Dew Points in the 60s and 70s..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F24_DPTF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
So one thing if for certain there seems to be no escape from the heat and whenever you have heat well you have the potential for severe weather if the right parameters are in place along with a trigger. One way to look at it is the parameters are like the fuel in place for an explosion to happen..However..you can not have an explosion without a match (in this case a trigger such as a cold front etc.)
So lets look at the parameters in place...
CAPE or Instability will be about 500-3500 depending on where you are located in the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F24_CAPE_SURFACE.png
Lift index will be from about 0 to negative 8 depending on where you are located in the severe zone..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F24_PLI_30_0_MB_ABOVE_GROUND.png
No lack of SHEAR with 30-50 knots depending on where you are located..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F24_SHRM_500_MB.png
HELICITY is greatest near the Canadian Border..
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F24_HLCY_3000_M_ABOVE_GROUND_0_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX is quite high across the Ok region into the west Texas region near the Panhandle.
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2012/06/14/00/NAM_221_2012061400_F24_EHI_3000_M.png
At the surface we have a stationary front draped across the southern tier of the USA. By about 6 Z (another hour) we will have a low pressure located over the Dakotas and extending from this low pressure is a warm front that will run from north to south to the quasi stationary cold front to another area of low pressure over the panhandle of FL. This low pressure over the Dakotas is going to move east and a low pressure will form a triple point low in the southern tier of Canada which is gong to move east which will cause the warm front to move across the region first ..but trailing from this low pressure system behind the warm front is a cold front. It is this frontal feature that will provide the severe potential across the central part of the USA and the location in the SE will be because of the semi stationary front in that region. The main threats are going to be winds and large hail but with the EHI we are going to place a 2 % zone for tornado's mainly across the OK to West TX region...