Tropical Storm Debby Update # 2

The above is the latest image of Tropical Storm Debby. As you can see , at the present time Tropical storm Debby is being plagued by dry air intruding into the system so it looks really disorganized at the present time. Another problem that Debby is facing is 10-20 knots of shear..so she also has a sheared appearance..

We want to start off by looking at the current information on the system as of 2 AM EST..

.DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

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1:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 25
Location: 28.6°N 85.8°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

The pressure has come up 2 mbs since the earlier update in the early evening. This is indicative of the dry air and the shear that is currently effecting the system. We also want to take a look at National Hurricanes track (which will be updated in about 1 hour from now)

Now if you recall with our last update we said that the National Hurricane Center at some point was going to come to the east into Florida because the guidance was all but three models indicating this happening. This is exactly what NHC has done..

The above is the latest radar image and you can see the effect that the dry air and shear is having in there is not much convection associated with the system around the Center of Circulation. Looking at visible and water vapor image you would get the impression that this HAS the potential to just become a remnant low. However..guidance is not suggesting this.

Guidance has become somewhat more interesting tonight as in the ECM has now given into the GFS with taking this system slowly across Florida and emerging off the NE side of Florida. The GFS also shows this happening as well.. The difference between the two models is just one of timing as the GFS is faster (sometimes its bias) and the ECM is slower. However..both models agree that the trough is not going to catch Debby and that Debby will get trapped underneath a building ridge..

Steering currents currently are very weak which is why right now Debby is stationary but as the ridge pushes towards the east this should start Debby on a NNE track once again taking her across Florida..Lets  look at the guidance..

You can see that the GFS brings out Debby on the Eastern Side of Florida and then moves up along the Eastern Seaboard to just off the Carolinas and this would be in Hurricane status..

Lets look at the ECM ..

As you can see looking at the ECM it is in fair agreement with the GFS , difference being timing and this becomes a close call for the NE . However, both models agree on we will be dealing with Debby at least over the next 8 to perhaps as much as 10 days and both models have Debby becoming a Hurricane with the ECM being a MAJOR Hurricane.

For now though, instead of concentrating on the longer range we will worry about the short range and that is the amount of rain that will be falling across the Florida area over the next 5 days..

The one model to stand out from this that we will view as the outlier is the GGEM which also takes it across FL but then stalls it off the NE coast of FL and then drifts it back to the west southwest over Florida.

So with the guidance in relatively good agreement we feel that NHC will end up sometime in the near future coming around to this track over the next 5 days..

Right now as we said though the main concerns are flooding rains and in addition to that tornados being spawned across Florida..

Interests from Florida to the Carolinas need to pay attention to this storm.